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  • American Meteorological Society  (29)
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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2018-05-17
    Beschreibung: A freezing rain event, in which the Meteorological Centre of Canada’s 2.5-km numerical weather prediction system significantly underpredicted the quantity of freezing rain, is examined. The prediction system models precipitation types explicitly, directly from the Milbrandt–Yau microphysics scheme. It was determined that the freezing rain underprediction for this case was due primarily to excessive refreezing of rain, originating from melting snow and graupel, in and under the temperature inversion of the advancing warm front ultimately depleting the supply of rain reaching the surface. The refreezing was caused from excessive collisional freezing between rain and graupel. Sensitivity experiments were conducted to examine the effects of a temperature threshold for collisional freezing and on varying the values of the collection efficiencies between rain and ice-phase hydrometeors. It was shown that by reducing the rain–graupel collection efficiency and by imposing a temperature threshold of −5°C, above which collisional freezing is not permitted, excessive rain–graupel collection and graupel formation can be controlled in the microphysics scheme, leading to an improved simulation of freezing rain at the surface.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0434
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2016-11-07
    Beschreibung: Since November 2014, the Meteorological Services of Canada (MSC) has been running a real-time numerical weather prediction system that provides deterministic forecasts on a regional domain with a 2.5-km horizontal grid spacing covering a large portion of Canada using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) forecast model. This system, referred to as the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS), is currently downscaled from MSC’s operational 10-km GEM-based regional system but uses initial surface fields from a high-resolution (2.5 km) land data assimilation system coupled to the HRDPS and initial hydrometeor fields from the forecast of a 2.5-km cycle, which reduces the spinup time for clouds and precipitation. Forecast runs of 48 h are provided four times daily. The HRDPS was tested and compared to the operational 10-km system. Model runs from the two systems were evaluated against surface observations for common weather elements (temperature, humidity, winds, and precipitation), fractional cloud cover, and also against upper-air soundings, all using standard metrics. Although the predictions of some fields were degraded in some specific regions, the HRDPS generally outperformed the operational system for a majority of the scores. The evaluation illustrates the added value of the 2.5-km model and the potential for improved numerical guidance for the prediction of high-impact weather.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0434
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2016-02-09
    Beschreibung: Vortex stretching by intense upward accelerations is a critical process for tornadogenesis and maintenance. Two high-resolution (250-m grid spacing) real-data simulations of the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, supercell and associated tornadoes, using single- and triple-moment microphysics parameterization schemes, respectively, are examined. Microphysical, thermodynamic, and dynamic impacts on the vertical accelerations near and within simulated tornado-like vortices (TLVs) are analyzed. Systematic differences in behavior of the TLVS between the two experiments are found; the TLV in the triple-moment simulation is substantially more intense and longer lived than in the single-moment case. The triple-moment scheme in this case produces less rain and hail mass in the low levels and drop size distributions of rain shifted toward larger drops, relative to the single-moment scheme, leading to less latent cooling and warmer outflow. Trajectory analyses reveal that more parcels entering the TLV in the triple-moment simulation have a history of dynamically induced descent, whereas buoyantly driven descent is more prevalent in the single-moment experiment. It is found that the intensity and longevity of the TLV are tied to weaker negative or neutral thermal buoyancy in the air flowing into the TLV in the triple-moment case, consistent with previous observational and modeling studies. Finally, the contribution to buoyancy from pressure perturbations is found to be of prime importance within the TLV, where strong negative pressure perturbations lead to substantial positive buoyancy. This contribution compensates for the slight negative thermal buoyancy and negative dynamic pressure gradient acceleration in the triple-moment case.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0469
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2016-07-15
    Beschreibung: This paper discusses the advection of coupled hydrometeor quantities by air motion in atmospheric models. It is shown that any bulk property derived from a set of advected microphysical variables must meet certain conditions in order to be preserved during transport using linear or semilinear advection schemes when the property is initially uniform, with implications for physical consistency of the property. A new, efficient flux-based method for calculating hydrometeor advection, similar to vector transport applied previously in aerosol modeling, is also presented. In this method, called scaled flux vector transport (SFVT), lead scalars (the mass mixing ratios) are advected using the host model’s unmodified advection scheme and secondary scalars (e.g., number mixing ratios) are advected by appropriately scaling the lead scalar fluxes. By design, SFVT retains linear relationships between the advected scalars. Analytic tests reveal that mean errors using SFVT are similar to those incurred using the traditional approach of separately advecting each variable. SFVT is applied to the multimoment predicted particle properties bulk microphysics scheme in idealized two-dimensional squall-line simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The computational cost in total wall clock run time is reduced by 10%–15% while producing solutions similar to the traditional approach. Thus, SFVT can reduce the overall cost of using multimoment bulk microphysics schemes, making them competitive with simpler schemes having fewer prognostic variables.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0493
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-06-01
    Beschreibung: A novel bulk microphysics scheme that predicts the evolution of ice properties, including aspect ratio (shape), mass, number, size, and density is described, tested, and demonstrated. The scheme is named the Ice-Spheroids Habit Model with Aspect-Ratio Evolution (ISHMAEL). Ice is modeled as spheroids and is nucleated as one of two species depending on nucleation temperature. Microphysical process rates determine how shape and other ice properties evolve. A third aggregate species is also employed, diversifying ice properties in the model. Tests of ice shape evolution during vapor growth and riming are verified against wind tunnel data, revealing that the model captures habit-dependent riming and its effect on fall speed. Lagrangian parcel studies demonstrate that the bulk model captures ice property evolution during riming and melting compared with a bin model. Finally, the capabilities of ISHMAEL are shown in a 2D kinematic framework with a simple updraft. A direct result of predicting ice shape evolution is that various states of ice from unrimed to lightly rimed to densely rimed can be modeled without converting ice mass between predefined ice categories (e.g., snow and graupel). This leads to a different spatial precipitation distribution compared with the traditional method of separating snow and graupel and converting between the two categories, because ice in ISHMAEL sorts in physical space based on the amount of rime, which controls the thickness and therefore fall speed. Predicting these various states of rimed ice leads to a reduction in vapor growth rate and an increase in riming rate in a simple updraft compared with the traditional approach.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0469
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-09-01
    Beschreibung: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme’s (WWRP) Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed program (FROST-2014) was aimed at the advancement and demonstration of state-of-the-art nowcasting and short-range forecasting systems for winter conditions in mountainous terrain. The project field campaign was held during the 2014 XXII Olympic and XI Paralympic Winter Games and preceding test events in Sochi, Russia. An enhanced network of in situ and remote sensing observations supported weather predictions and their verification. Six nowcasting systems (model based, radar tracking, and combined nowcasting systems), nine deterministic mesoscale numerical weather prediction models (with grid spacings down to 250 m), and six ensemble prediction systems (including two with explicitly simulated deep convection) participated in FROST-2014. The project provided forecast input for the meteorological support of the Sochi Olympic Games. The FROST-2014 archive of winter weather observations and forecasts is a valuable information resource for mesoscale predictability studies as well as for the development and validation of nowcasting and forecasting systems in complex terrain. The resulting innovative technologies, exchange of experience, and professional developments contributed to the success of the Olympics and left a post-Olympic legacy.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0477
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-02-01
    Beschreibung: Bulk microphysics parameterizations that are used to represent clouds and precipitation usually allow only solid and liquid hydrometeors. Predicting the bulk liquid fraction on ice allows an explicit representation of mixed-phase particles and various precipitation types, such as wet snow and ice pellets. In this paper, an approach for the representation of the bulk liquid fraction into the predicted particle properties (P3) microphysics scheme is proposed and described. Solid-phase microphysical processes, such as melting and sublimation, have been modified to account for the liquid component. New processes, such as refreezing and condensation of the liquid portion of mixed-phase particles, have been added to the parameterization. Idealized simulations using a one-dimensional framework illustrate the overall behavior of the modified scheme. The proposed approach compares well to a Lagrangian benchmark model. Temperatures required for populations of ice crystals to melt completely also agree well with previous studies. The new processes of refreezing and condensation impact both the surface precipitation type and feedback between the temperature and the phase changes. Overall, prediction of the bulk liquid fraction allows an explicit description of new precipitation types, such as wet snow and ice pellets, and improves the representation of hydrometeor properties when the temperature is near 0°C.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0469
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-08-27
    Beschreibung: A prognostic equation for the liquid fraction of mixed-phase particles has been recently added to the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) bulk microphysics scheme. Mixed-phase particles are necessary to simulate key microphysical processes leading to various winter precipitation types, such as ice pellets and freezing rain. To illustrate the impacts of predicting the bulk liquid fraction, the 1998 North American Ice Storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the modified P3 scheme. It is found that simulating partial melting by predicting the bulk liquid fraction produces higher mass and number mixing ratios of rain. This leads to smaller rain sizes reaching the refreezing layer as well as a decrease in the freezing rain accumulation at the surface by up to 30% in some locations compared to when no liquid fraction is predicted. The increase in fall speed and density and decrease of particle diameter during partial melting combined with an improved representation of the refreezing process in the modified P3 leads to generally higher total solid surface precipitation rates than using the original P3 scheme. There is also an increase of solid precipitation in regions of ice pellet accumulation. Overall, the simulation of mixed-phase particles notably impacts the vertical and spatial distributions of precipitation properties.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0493
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-10-26
    Beschreibung: A parameterization for the subgrid-scale cloud and precipitation fractions has been incorporated into the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) microphysics scheme for use in atmospheric models with relatively coarse horizontal resolution. The modified scheme was tested in a simple 1D kinematic model and in the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model using an operational global NWP configuration with a 25-km grid spacing. A series of 5-day forecast simulations was run using P3 and the much simpler operational Sundqvist condensation scheme as a benchmark for comparison. The effects of using P3 in a global GEM configuration, with and without the modifications, were explored through statistical metrics of common forecast fields against upper-air and surface observations. Diagnostics of state variable tendencies from various physics parameterizations were examined to identify possible sources of errors resulting from the use of the modified scheme. Sensitivity tests were performed on the coupling between the deep convection parameterization scheme and the microphysics, specifically regarding assumptions in the physical properties of detrained ice. It was found that even without re-calibration of the suite of moist physical parameterizations, substituting the Sundqvist condensation scheme with the modified P3 microphysics resulted in some significant improvements to the temperature and geopotential height bias throughout the troposphere and out to day 5, but with degradation to error standard deviation towards the end of the integrations, as well as an increase in the positive bias of precipitation quantities. The modified P3 scheme was thus shown to hold promise for potential use in coarse-resolution NWP systems.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0434
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-10-30
    Beschreibung: In the original Predicted Particle Properties (P3) bulk microphysics scheme, all ice-phase hydrometeors are represented by one or more “free” ice categories, where the physical properties evolve smoothly through changes to the four prognostic variables (per category,) and with a 2-moment representation of the particle size distribution. As such, the spectral dispersion cannot evolve independently, which thus results in limitations in representation of ice – in particular hail – due to necessary constraints in the scheme to prevent excessive gravitational size sorting. To overcome this, P3 has been modified to include a 3-moment representation of the size distribution of each ice category through the addition of a fifth prognostic variable, the sixth moment of the size distribution. The details of the 3-moment ice parameterization in P3 are provided. The behavior of the modified scheme, with the single-ice-category configuration, is illustrated through simulations in a simple 1D kinematic model framework as well as with near large-eddy-resolving (250-m grid spacing) 3D simulations of a hail-producing supercell. It is shown that the 3-moment ice configuration controls size sorting in a physically-based way and leads to an improved capacity to simulate large, heavily-rimed ice (hail), including mean and maximum sizes and reflectivity, and thus an overall improvement in the representation of ice-phase particles in the P3 scheme.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0469
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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