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  • 1
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    Characterizing the Uncertainty and Assessing the Value of Gap-Filled Daily Rainfall Data in Hawaii (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: Almost all daily rainfall time series contain gaps in the instrumental record. Various methods can be used to fill in missing data using observations at neighboring sites (predictor stations). In this study, five computationally simple gap-filling approaches—normal ratio (NR), linear regression (LR), inverse distance weighting (ID), quantile mapping (QM), and single best estimator (BE)—are evaluated to 1) determine the optimal method for gap filling daily rainfall in Hawaii, 2) quantify the error associated with filling gaps of various size, and 3) determine the value of gap filling prior to spatial interpolation. Results show that the correlation between a target station and a predictor station is more important than proximity of the stations in determining the quality of a rainfall prediction. In addition, the inclusion of rain/no-rain correction on the basis of either correlation between stations or proximity between stations significantly reduces the amount of spurious rainfall added to a filled dataset. For large gaps, relative median errors ranged from 12.5% to 16.5% and no statistical differences were identified between methods. For submonthly gaps, the NR method consistently produced the lowest mean error for 1- (2.1%), 15- (16.6%), and 30-day (27.4%) gaps when the difference between filled and observed monthly totals was considered. Results indicate that gap filling prior to spatial interpolation improves the overall quality of the gridded estimates, because higher correlations and lower performance errors were found when 20% of the daily dataset is filled as opposed to leaving these data unfilled prior to spatial interpolation.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 2
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    Fire and Rain: The Legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawaiʻi (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-06-01
    Description: Hurricane Lane (2018) was an impactful event for the Hawaiian Islands and provided a textbook example of the compounding hazards that can be produced from a single storm. Over a 4-day period, the island of Hawaiʻi received an island-wide average of 424 mm (17 in.) of rainfall, with a 4-day single-station maximum of 1,444 mm (57 in.), making Hurricane Lane the wettest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Hawaiʻi (based on all available quantitative records). Simultaneously, fires on the islands of nearby Maui and Oʻahu burned 1,043 ha (2,577 ac) and 162 ha (400 ac), respectively. Land-use characteristics and antecedent moisture conditions exacerbated fire hazard, and both fire and rain severity were influenced by the storm environment and local topographical features. Broadscale subsidence around the storm periphery and downslope winds resulted in dry and windy conditions conducive to fire, while in a different region of the same storm, preexisting convection, incredibly moist atmospheric conditions, and upslope flow brought intense, long-duration rainfall. The simultaneous occurrence of rain-driven flooding and landslides, high-intensity winds, and multiple fires complicated emergency response. The compounding nature of the hazards produced during the Hurricane Lane event highlights the need to improve anticipation of complex feedback mechanisms among climate- and weather-related phenomena.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    A 20-year analysis of disturbance-driven rainfall on O’ahu, Hawai’i (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: Undisturbed trade-wind conditions comprise the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai’i and produces a distinct pattern of orographic rainfall. Significant total rainfall contributions and extreme events are linked to four types of atmospheric disturbances: cold fronts, Kona lows, upper-tropospheric disturbances, and tropical cyclones. In this study, a 20- year (1990-2010) categorical disturbance time series is compiled and analyzed in relation to daily rainfall over the same period. The primary objective of this research is to determine how disturbances contribute to total wet season rainfall on the Island of O’ahu, Hawai’i. On average, 41% of wet seasonal rainfall occurs on disturbance days. Seventeen percent of seasonal rainfall can be directly attributed to disturbances (after a background signal is removed) and as much as 48% in a single season. The intensity of disturbance rainfall (mm/day) is a stronger predictor (r2 = 0.49; p 〈 0.001) of the total seasonal rainfall than the frequency of occurrence (r2 = 0.11; p = 0.153). Cold fronts are the most common disturbance type; however, the rainfall associated with fronts that cross the island is significantly higher than rainfall produced from non-crossing fronts. In fact, non-crossing fronts produce significantly less rainfall than under mean non-disturbance conditions 76% of the time. While the combined influence of atmospheric disturbances can account for almost half of the rainfall received during the wet season, the primary factor in determining a relatively wet or dry season/year on O’ahu are the frequency and rainfall intensity of Kona Low events.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    Free and forced components of shoaling long waves in the absence of short wave breaking (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-02-22
    Description: Long waves are generated and transform when short-wave groups propagate into shallow water, but the generation and transformation processes are not fully understood. In this study we develop an analytical solution to the linearized shallow-water equations at the wave-group scale, which decomposes the long waves into a forced solution (a bound long wave) and free solutions (free long waves). The solution relies on the hypothesis that free long waves are continuously generated as short-wave groups propagate over a varying depth. We show that the superposition of free long waves and a bound long wave results in a shift of the phase between the short-wave group and the total long wave, as the depth decreases prior to short-wave breaking. While it is known that short-wave breaking leads to free long generation, through breakpoint forcing and bound wave release mechanisms, we highlight the importance of an additional free long wave generation mechanism due to depth variations, in the absence of breaking. This mechanism is important because as free long waves of different origins combine, the total free long wave amplitude is dependent on their phase relationship. Our free and forced solutions are verified against a linear numerical model, and we show how our solution is consistent with prior theory that does not explicitly decouple free and forced motions. We also validate the results with data from a nonlinear phase-resolving numerical wave model and experimental measurements, demonstrating that our analytical model can explain trends observed in more complete representations of the hydrodynamics.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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