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Does Trade Cause Growth? (1999)

Frankel, Jeffrey A ; Romer, David

American Economic Association

In: American Economic Review. 1999; 89(3): 379-399. Published 1999 Jun 01. doi: 10.1257/aer.89.3.379.

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Publication Date: 1999-06-01

Description: Examining the correlation between trade and income cannot identify the direction of causation between the two. Countries' geographic characteristics, however, have important effects on trade, and are plausibly uncorrelated with other determinants of income. This paper therefore constructs measures of the geographic component of countries' trade, and uses those measures to obtain instrumental variables estimates of the effect of trade on income. The results provide no evidence that ordinary least-squares estimates overstate the effects of trade. Further, they suggest that trade has a quantitatively large and robust, though only moderately statistically significant, positive effect on income. (JEL F43, O40)

Print ISSN: 0002-8282

Electronic ISSN: 1944-7981

Topics: Economics

Published by American Economic Association

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