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  • 2020-2024  (11)
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  • 1
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    Annex III: Scenarios and modelling methods (2022)
    In:  Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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    Publication Date: 2023-07-18
    Description: The use of scenarios and modelling methods are pillars in IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) Assessment Reports. Past WGIII assessment report cycles identified knowledge gaps about the integration of modelling across scales and disciplines, mainly between global integrated assessment modelling methods and bottom-up modelling insights of mitigation responses. The need to improve the transparency of model assumptions and enhance the communication of scenario results was also recognised. This annex on Scenarios and Modelling Methods aims to address some of these gaps by detailing the modelling frameworks applied in the WGIII Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) chapters and disclose scenario assumptions and its key parameters. It has been explicitly included in the Scoping Meeting Report of the WGIII contribution to the AR6 and approved by the IPCC Panel at the 46th Session of the Panel. The annex includes two parts: Part I on Modelling Methods summarises methods and tools available to evaluate sectoral, technological and behavioural mitigation responses as well as integrated assessment models (IAMs) for the analysis of ‘whole system’ transformation pathways; Part II on Scenarios sets out the portfolio of climate change scenarios and mitigation pathways assessed in the AR6 WGIII chapters, its underlying principles and interactions with scenario assessments by WGI and WGII.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/other
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  • 2
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    Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation (2021)
    In:  Climatic Change
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    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.
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  • 3
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    Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter (2020)
    In:  Nature
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    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
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    Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change (2021)
    In:  Nature Climate Change
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    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.
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  • 5
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    Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020)
    In:  Nature Communications
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    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.
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  • 6
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    Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot (2021)
    In:  Nature Climate Change
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    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.
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  • 7
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    Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions (2021)
    In:  Nature Sustainability
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    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Climate change scenario services: From science to facilitating action (2021)
    In:  One Earth
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    Publication Date: 2023-10-18
    Description: The goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C as set out in the Paris Agreement calls for a strategic assessment of societal pathways and policy strategies. Besides policy makers, new powerful actors from the private sector, including finance, have stepped up to engage in forward-looking assessments of a Paris-compliant and climate-resilient future. Climate change scenarios have addressed this demand by providing scientific insights on the possible pathways ahead to limit warming in line with the Paris climate goal. Despite the increased interest, the potential of climate change scenarios has not been fully unleashed, mostly due to a lack of an intermediary service that provides guidance and access to climate change scenarios. This perspective presents the concept of a climate change scenario service, its components, and a prototypical implementation to overcome this shortcoming aiming to make scenarios accessible to a broader audience of societal actors and decision makers.
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  • 9
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    Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios (2023)
    In:  Nature Energy
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    Publication Date: 2023-12-21
    Description: Energy models are used to study emissions mitigation pathways, such as those compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization and level of detail, yielding differences in the computed energy and climate policy scenarios. To study model differences, diagnostic indicators are common practice in many academic fields, for example, in the physical climate sciences. However, they have not yet been applied systematically in mitigation literature, beyond addressing individual model dimensions. Here we address this gap by quantifying energy model typology along five dimensions: responsiveness, mitigation strategies, energy supply, energy demand and mitigation costs and effort, each expressed through several diagnostic indicators. The framework is applied to a diagnostic experiment with eight energy models in which we explore ten scenarios focusing on Europe. Comparing indicators to the ensemble yields comprehensive ‘energy model fingerprints’, which describe systematic model behaviour and contextualize model differences for future multi-model comparison studies.
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Combining GNSS and DORIS for improved ZPD estimates (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-02
    Description: Rapid advancements in space geodetic technology have generated an abundance of geodetic-quality datasets from various techniques Α combination of multi-technique datasets can provide a novel insight on tropospheric error mitigation and atmospheric studies. This study explores the use of augmenting GNSS and DORIS datasets for estimating tropospheric delay. DORIS is widely utilized for various geodetic applications such as precise orbit determination of satellites and space missions, geodetic reference frame definition, modeling of the earth's gravity field, sea level and ocean circulation studies. While current DORIS analysis tools provide advanced features and robust data processing capabilities, they are not open source and are difficult to obtain. The study describes the design of an open-source, in-house DORIS processing software as well as an innovative approach to tropospheric path delay estimation in which datasets from GNSS and DORIS are combined and processed to produce final sets of ZPD and coordinates estimates. The software utilizes the DORIS RINEX v3.0 data file format, which enables the full exploitation of the system's modernized features, including multi-channel pseudorange and carrier-phase observations. In accordance with IDS and IERS recommendations and standards, the software is designed to produce high-quality results. Special care is taken to handle system-specific noise characteristics and observation weighting. Upon completion, the software will constitute a free and open-source solution for the DORIS community, offering a valuable resource for the advancement of geodetic research.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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