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  • 2020-2024  (50)
  • 2020-2023  (19)
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  • 1
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    Joint trends in flood magnitudes and spatial extents across Europe (2020)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The magnitudes of river floods in Europe have been observed to change, but their alignment with changes in the spatial coverage or extent of individual floods has not been clear. We analyze flood magnitudes and extents for 3,872 hydrometric stations across Europe over the past five decades and classify each flood based on antecedent weather conditions. We find positive correlations between flood magnitudes and extents for 95% of the stations. In central Europe and the British Isles, the association of increasing trends in magnitudes and extents is due to a magnitude‐extent correlation of precipitation and soil moisture along with a shift in the flood generating processes. The alignment of trends in flood magnitudes and extents highlights the increasing importance of transnational flood risk management.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    Novel Quantification Method for Hydrograph Similarity (2020)
    In:  Advances in Hydroinformatics | Springer Water
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: We propose an additional elaborate hydrological signature index to quantify similarity (and dissimilarity) between recurring flood dynamics and between observation and model simulation as implied by their phase space trajectories. These phase space trajectories are reconstructed from their corresponding hydrographs (i.e., event time series) using Taken’s time delay embedding method. This reconstructed phase space allows multi-dimensional relationship between observation points (i.e., at different time of the event) to be analyzed. Such approach considers the relationships of set of magnitude points in their unique time sequence that are relevant to the complex temporal cascading processes in flood. In a simpler terms, the new index considers the characteristics shape dynamics of a hydrograph and optionally the antecedent discharge conditions that may implicitly cascade to the subsequent rainfall-runoff event and cause an extreme or unusual hydrograph shape. This new similarity index can be used to comprehensively assess the recurrence of extreme event characteristics, change of flood dynamics, shift of seasonality, and as additional metric or objective function to evaluate and calibrate hydrological and hydraulics models.
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  • 3
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    Optimal design of hydrometric station networks based on complex network analysis (2020)
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Hydrometric networks play a vital role in providing information for decision-making in water resource management. They should be set up optimally to provide as much information as possible that is as accurate as possible and, at the same time, be cost-effective. Although the design of hydrometric networks is a well-identified problem in hydrometeorology and has received considerable attention, there is still scope for further advancement. In this study, we use complex network analysis, defined as a collection of nodes interconnected by links, to propose a new measure that identifies critical nodes of station networks. The approach can support the design and redesign of hydrometric station networks. The science of complex networks is a relatively young field and has gained significant momentum over the last few years in different areas such as brain networks, social networks, technological networks, or climate networks. The identification of influential nodes in complex networks is an important field of research. We propose a new node-ranking measure – the weighted degree–betweenness (WDB) measure – to evaluate the importance of nodes in a network. It is compared to previously proposed measures used on synthetic sample networks and then applied to a real-world rain gauge network comprising 1229 stations across Germany to demonstrate its applicability. The proposed measure is evaluated using the decline rate of the network efficiency and the kriging error. The results suggest that WDB effectively quantifies the importance of rain gauges, although the benefits of the method need to be investigated in more detail.
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  • 4
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    Recurrence analysis of extreme event-like data (2021)
    In:  Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The identification of recurrences at various time scales in extreme event-like time series is challenging because of the rare occurrence of events which are separated by large temporal gaps. Most of the existing time series analysis techniques cannot be used to analyse extreme event-like time series in its unaltered form. The study of the system dynamics by reconstruction of the phase space using the standard delay embedding method is not directly applicable to event-like time series as it assumes a Euclidean notion of distance between states in the phase space. The edit distance method is a novel approach that uses the point-process nature of events. We propose a modification of edit distance to analyze the dynamics of extreme event-like time series by incorporating a nonlinear function which takes into account the sparse distribution of extreme events and utilizes the physical significance of their temporal pattern. We apply the modified edit distance method to event-like data generated from point process as well as flood event series constructed from discharge data of the Mississippi River in USA, and compute their recurrence plots. From the recurrence analysis, we are able to quantify the deterministic properties of extreme event-like data. We also show that there is a significant serial dependency in the flood time series by using the random shuffle surrogate method.
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  • 5
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    Ranking and characterization of precipitation extremes for the past 113 years for Indian western Himalayas (2021)
    In:  International Journal of Climatology
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    Publication Date: 2022-07-13
    Description: Globally, mountain systems are unevenly exposed to risks of extreme precipitation. Within the Himalayan region, precipitation extremes are a rising concern, but their current understanding is limited. In this study, we use 113 years of precipitation data to rank and characterize precipitation extremes in the Indian Western Himalayas (IWH). Our statistical ranking method integrates precipitation spatial extent and its intensity across different durations for determining the severity of extreme events. The proposed ranking method accounts for multi-day duration ranking method to capture persistent precipitation episodes. Results show that the method accurately detects and ranks the most extreme precipitation events that occurred in the IWH and indicate locations of these events. Our results highlight that critical long duration events in the region (e.g., 10 days) are missed at ranks at shorter duration (e.g., 2–3 days), thereby highlighting the importance to multi-day precipitation extremes ranking. In addition, the proposed ranking method provides information about the event duration that will be associated with the highest impact on society, carrying high significance. Our findings are valuable for flood risk management and disaster risk reduction.
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Event and Catchment Controls of Heavy Tail Behavior of Floods (2022)
    In:  Water Resources Research
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    Publication Date: 2023-01-24
    Description: In some catchments, the distribution of annual maximum streamflow shows heavy tail behavior, meaning the occurrence probability of extreme events is higher than if the upper tail decayed exponentially. Neglecting heavy tail behavior can lead to an underestimation of the likelihood of extreme floods and the associated risk. Partly contradictory results regarding the controls of heavy tail behavior exist in the literature and the knowledge is still very dispersed and limited. To better understand the drivers, we analyze the upper tail behavior and its controls for 480 catchments in Germany and Austria over a period of more than 50 years. The catchments span from quickly reacting mountain catchments to large lowland catchments, allowing for general conclusions. We compile a wide range of event and catchment characteristics and investigate their association with an indicator of the tail heaviness of flood distributions, namely the shape parameter of the GEV distribution. Following univariate analyses of these characteristics, along with an evaluation of different aggregations of event characteristics, multiple linear regression models, as well as random forests, are constructed. A novel slope indicator, which represents the relation between the return period of flood peaks and event characteristics, captures the controls of heavy tails best. Variables describing the catchment response are found to dominate the heavy tail behavior, followed by event precipitation, flood seasonality, and catchment size. The pre-event moisture state in a catchment has no relevant impact on the tail heaviness even though it does influence flood magnitudes.
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Controls on Flood Trends Across the United States (2023)
    In:  Water Resources Research
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    Publication Date: 2023-04-21
    Description: Trends in flood magnitudes vary across the conterminous USA (CONUS). There have been attempts to identify what controls these regionally varying trends, but these attempts were limited to certain—for example, climatic—variables or to smaller regions, using different methods and datasets each time. Here we attribute the trends in annual maximum streamflow for 4,390 gauging stations across the CONUS in the period 1960–2010, while using a novel combination of methods and an unprecedented variety of potential controlling variables to allow large-scale comparisons and minimize biases. Using process-based flood classification and complex networks, we find 10 distinct clusters of catchments with similar flood behavior. We compile a set of 31 hydro-climatological and land use variables as predictors for 10 separate Random Forest models, allowing us to find the main controls the flood magnitude trends for each cluster. By using Accumulated Local Effect plots, we can understand how these controls influence the trends in the flood magnitude. We show that hydro-climatologic changes and land use are of similar importance for flood magnitude trends across the CONUS. Static land use variables are more important than their trends, suggesting that land use is able to attenuate (forested areas) or amplify (urbanized areas) the effects of climatic changes on flood magnitudes. For some variables, we find opposing effects in different regions, showing that flood trend controls are highly dependent on regional characteristics and that our novel approach is necessary to attribute flood magnitude trends reliably at the continental scale while maintaining sensitivity to regional controls.
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods (2021)
    In:  Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
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    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Disastrous floods have caused millions of fatalities in the twentieth century, tens of billions of dollars of direct economic loss each year and serious disruption to global trade. In this Review, we provide a synthesis of the atmospheric, land surface and socio-economic processes that produce river floods with disastrous consequences. Disastrous floods have often been caused by processes fundamentally different from those of non-disastrous floods, such as unusual but recurring atmospheric circulation patterns or failures of flood defences, which lead to high levels of damage because they are unexpected both by citizens and by flood managers. Past trends in economic flood impacts show widespread increases, mostly driven by economic and population growth. However, the number of fatalities and people affected has decreased since the mid-1990s because of risk reduction measures, such as improved risk awareness and structural flood defences. Disastrous flooding is projected to increase in many regions, particularly in Asia and Africa, owing to climate and socio-economic changes, although substantial uncertainties remain. Assessing the risk of disastrous river floods requires a deeper understanding of their distinct causes. Transdisciplinary research is needed to understand the potential for surprise in flood risk systems better and to operationalize risk management concepts that account for limited knowledge and unexpected developments.
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  • 9
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    Spatial coherence patterns of extreme winter precipitation in the U.S. (2023)
    In:  Theoretical and Applied Climatology
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    Publication Date: 2024-02-14
    Description: Extreme precipitation events have a significant impact on life and property. The U.S. experiences huge economic losses due to severe floods caused by extreme precipitation. With the complex terrain of the region, it becomes increasingly important to understand the spatial variability of extreme precipitation to conduct a proper risk assessment of natural hazards such as floods. In this work, we use a complex network-based approach to identify distinct regions exhibiting spatially coherent precipitation patterns due to various underlying climate mechanisms. To quantify interactions between event series of different locations, we use a nonlinear similarity measure, called the edit-distance method, which considers not only the occurrence of the extreme events but also their intensity, while measuring similarity between two event series. Using network measures, namely, degree and betweenness centrality, we are able to identify the specific regions affected by the landfall of atmospheric rivers in addition to those where the extreme precipitation due to storm track activity is modulated by different mountain ranges such as the Rockies and the Appalachians. Our approach provides a comprehensive picture of the spatial patterns of extreme winter precipitation in the U.S. due to various climate processes despite its vast, complex topography.
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Resilience of transportation infrastructure networks to road failures (2024)
    In:  Chaos
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    Publication Date: 2024-04-11
    Description: Anthropogenic climate change drives extreme weather events, leading to significant consequences for both society and the environment. This includes damage to road infrastructure, causing disruptions in transportation, obstructing access to emergency services, and hindering humanitarian organizations after natural disasters. In this study, we develop a novel method for analyzing the impacts of natural hazards on transportation networks rooted in the gravity model of travel, offering a fresh perspective to assess the repercussions of natural hazards on transportation network stability. Applying this approach to the Ahr valley flood of 2021, we discovered that the destruction of bridges and roads caused major bottlenecks, affecting areas considerably distant from the flood’s epicenter. Furthermore, the flood-induced damage to the infrastructure also increased the response time of emergency vehicles, severely impeding the accessibility of emergency services. Our findings highlight the need for targeted road repair and reinforcement, with a focus on maintaining traffic flow for emergency responses. This research provides a new perspective that can aid in prioritizing transportation network resilience measures to reduce the economic and social costs of future extreme weather events.
    Language: English
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