ALBERT

Description: We have been developing a dynamical seasonal prediction system based on a climate model called the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier ver. 2 (SINTEX-F2) under the EU–Japan collaborative framework. It has demonstrated high skills in the prediction of climate phenomena in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans (e.g., El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO-Modoki, and Indian Ocean Dipole events) and their teleconnections. Encouraged by the performance, we further explored the predictability of drought in East Africa during the short rains season of 2021. Many parts of East Africa experienced extremely dry conditions during the short rains season of October–December of this year. Interestingly, this was predicted a few months earlier by the 108-member ensemble seasonal prediction system based on the SINTEX-F climate model. Based on the co-variability of inter-member anomalies, we found that the 108-member ensemble prediction system has an advantage in finding possible co-variability patterns influencing predictions of precipitation, in which the signal-to-noise ratio is low relative to predictions of temperature. This analysis demonstrates that the 2021 negative Indian Ocean Dipole was responsible for the unusually dry conditions over East Africa. We also developed a hybrid statistical-dynamical framework that was found to be more skillful than the original SINTEX-F model at predicting drought in East Africa for a longer lead time. We hope this added predictability will help people take the necessary mitigation measures to reduce the devastating impact of the drought.