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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-26
    Beschreibung: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Rodysill, J. R., Donnelly, J. P., Sullivan, R., Lane, P. D., Toomey, M., Woodruff, J. D., Hawkes, A. D., MacDonald, D., d'Entremont, N., McKeon, K., Wallace, E., & van Hengstum, P. J. Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 19092. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75874-0.
    Beschreibung: Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.
    Beschreibung: Funding for this project was provided by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) grant and NSF awards 0903020, 1902463, and 1854980 awarded to Jeffrey Donnelly, and the USGS Land Change Science Program.
    Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Materialart: Article
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-26
    Beschreibung: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Winkler, T. S., van Hengstum, P. J., Donnelly, J. P., Wallace, E. J., Sullivan, R. M., MacDonald, D., & Albury, N. A. Revising evidence of hurricane strikes on Abaco Island (the Bahamas) over the last 700 years. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 16556, doi:10.1038/s41598-020-73132-x.
    Beschreibung: The northern Bahamas have experienced more frequent intense-hurricane impacts than almost anywhere else in the Atlantic since 1850 CE. In 2019, category 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale) Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the destructive potential of these natural hazards. Problematically, determining whether high hurricane activity levels remained constant through time is difficult given the short observational record (〈 170 years). We present a 700-year long, near-annually resolved stratigraphic record of hurricane passage near Thatchpoint Blue Hole (TPBH) on Abaco Island, The Bahamas. Using longer sediment cores (888 cm) and more reliable age-control, this study revises and temporally expands a previous study from TPBH that underestimated the sedimentation rate. TPBH records at least 13 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century between 1500 to 1670 CE, which exceeds the 9 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century within 50 km of TPBH since 1850 CE. The eastern United States also experienced frequent hurricanes from 1500 to 1670 CE, but frequency was depressed elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. This suggests that spatial heterogeneity in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1850 CE could have persisted throughout the last millennium. This heterogeneity is impacted by climatic and stochastic forcing, but additional high-resolution paleo-hurricane reconstructions are required to assess the mechanisms that impact regional variability.
    Beschreibung: Field support was provided by Jody Albury and the staff of Friends of the Environment in Marsh Harbour, The Bahamas, and technical support was provided was provided by M. Horgan and S. Molodtsov. Funding for this project was provided by NSF Awards OCE-1356509, OCE-1356708, OCE-1854917, OCE-1903616, and ICER-1854980. The open access publishing fees for this article have been covered by the Texas A&M University Open Access to Knowledge Fund (OAKFund), supported by the University Libraries.
    Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Materialart: Article
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  • 3
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    Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-10-20
    Beschreibung: Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Biological Oceanography at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution September 2020.
    Beschreibung: Little is known about how Atlantic hurricane activity changes on long timescales. This thesis uses proxy development and proxy-model integration to constrain the spatiotemporal variability in hurricane activity in the Bahama Archipelago over the past millennium. I present annually-resolved archives of storm activity derived from sediment cores from blue holes on three islands in the Bahama Archipelago: South Andros, Long Island, and Middle Caicos. Dramatic differences between these records suggest localized controls on the hurricane patterns observed by each island. Thus, compiling these records together more accurately captures regional variations in hurricane strikes. Integrating our new Bahama Archipelago compilation with compiled paleohurricane records from the U.S. coastline indicates shifting patterns of hurricane activity over the past millennium between the Gulf Coast and the Bahama Archipelago/New England. Finally, I address whether variability in hurricane strikes observed in Bahamian paleohurricane records is related to climate or random variability using hurricane model output. The signal observed in any individual record of paleohurricane activity from the Bahama Archipelago is driven more by random variability in hurricane tracks than by climate. This thesis lays the groundwork for creating high-resolution paleohurricane records from blue holes and using hurricane models to inform our interpretations of these records.
    Beschreibung: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (to E.J.W.), National Science Foundation grant OCE-1356708 (to J.P.D. and P.J.vH.) and the Dalio Explore Foundation.
    Schlagwort(e): Paleohurricanes ; Carbonate sediment ; Blue holes
    Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Materialart: Thesis
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-10-26
    Beschreibung: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in E. J., Donnelly, J. P., van Hengstum, P. J., Wiman, C., Sullivan, R. M., Winkler, T. S., d'Entremont, N. E., Toomey, M., & Albury, N. Intense hurricane activity over the past 1500 years at South Andros Island, the Bahamas. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 34(11), (2019): 1761-1783, doi:10.1029/2019PA003665.
    Beschreibung: Hurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane‐climate interactions on multi‐decadal and longer timescales. Coarse‐grained, hurricane‐induced deposits preserved in blue holes in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This record is corroborated by shorter reconstructions from cores collected at two nearby blue holes. The record contains coarse‐grained event deposits attributable to known historical hurricane strikes within age uncertainties. Over the past 1500 years, South Andros shows evidence of four active periods of hurricane activity. None of these active intervals occurred in the past 163 years. We suggest that Intertropical Convergence Zone position modulates hurricane activity on the island based on a correlation with Cariaco Basin titanium concentrations. An anomalous gap in activity on South Andros Island in the early 13th century corresponds to a period of increased volcanism. The patterns of hurricane activity reconstructed from South Andros Island closely match those from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti‐phased with records from New England. We suggest that either changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., SSTs) or a northeastward shift in storm tracks can account for the increased activity in the western North Atlantic when the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Caribbean are less active.
    Beschreibung: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (to E.J.W.), National Science Foundation grant OCE‐1356708 (to J.P.D. and P.J.vH.), the Dalio Explore Foundation and the USGS Land Change Science Program (M.R.T.). We are grateful to members of WHOI Coastal Systems Group, in particular Stephanie Madsen, for their help in the processing core samples. We thank two anonymous reviewers, Matthew Lachniet, Marci Robinson (USGS) and Miriam Jones (USGS) for their helpful feedback on earlier versions of this manuscript. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The data are available on the National Climatic Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/dataaccess/paleoclimatology‐data) and WHOI Coastal Systems Group (https://web.whoi.edu/coastal‐group/) websites.
    Schlagwort(e): Paleohurricanes ; Carbonate tidal flats ; Blue holes ; Andros ; Bahamas
    Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Materialart: Article
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-10-26
    Beschreibung: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Wallace, E. J., Donnelly, J. P., van Hengstum, P. J., Winkler, T. S., McKeon, K., MacDonald, D., d'Entremont, N. E., Sullivan, R. M., Woodruff, J. D., Hawkes, A. D., & Maio, C. 1,050 years of hurricane strikes on long island in the Bahamas. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36(3), (2021): e2020PA004156, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004156.
    Beschreibung: Sedimentary records of past hurricane activity indicate centennial-scale periods over the past millennium with elevated hurricane activity. The search for the underlying mechanism behind these active hurricane periods is confounded by regional variations in their timing. Here, we present a new high resolution paleohurricane record from The Bahamas with a synthesis of published North Atlantic records over the past millennium. We reconstruct hurricane strikes over the past 1,050 years in sediment cores from a blue hole on Long Island in The Bahamas. Coarse-grained deposits in these cores date to the close passage of seven hurricanes over the historical interval. We find that the intensity and angle of approach of these historical storms plays an important role in inducing storm surge near the site. Our new record indicates four active hurricane periods on Long Island that conflict with published records on neighboring islands (Andros and Abaco Island). We demonstrate these three islands do not sample the same storms despite their proximity, and we compile these reconstructions together to create the first regional compilation of annually resolved paleohurricane records in The Bahamas. Integrating our Bahamian compilation with compiled records from the U.S. coastline indicates basin-wide increased storminess during the Medieval Warm Period. Afterward, the hurricane patterns in our Bahamian compilation match those reconstructed along the U.S. East Coast but not in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This disconnect may result from shifts in local environmental conditions in the North Atlantic or shifts in hurricane populations from straight-moving to recurving storms over the past millennium.
    Beschreibung: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (to E. J. W.), the Dalio Explore Foundation, and National Science Foundation grant OCE-1356708 (to J. P. D. and P. J. vH.).
    Schlagwort(e): Bahamas ; Blue holes ; Carbonates ; Paleohurricanes ; Sediment cores
    Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Materialart: Article
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-10-26
    Beschreibung: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Goldstein, E. B., Buscombe, D., Lazarus, E. D., Mohanty, S. D., Rafique, S. N., Anarde, K. A., Ashton, A. D., Beuzen, T., Castagno, K. A., Cohn, N., Conlin, M. P., Ellenson, A., Gillen, M., Hovenga, P. A., Over, J.-S. R., Palermo, R., Ratliff, K. M., Reeves, I. R. B., Sanborn, L. H., Straub, J. A., Taylor, L. A., Wallace E. J., Warrick, J., Wernette, P., Williams, H. E. Labeling poststorm coastal imagery for machine learning: measurement of interrater agreement. Earth and Space Science, 8(9), (2021): e2021EA001896, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001896.
    Beschreibung: Classifying images using supervised machine learning (ML) relies on labeled training data—classes or text descriptions, for example, associated with each image. Data-driven models are only as good as the data used for training, and this points to the importance of high-quality labeled data for developing a ML model that has predictive skill. Labeling data is typically a time-consuming, manual process. Here, we investigate the process of labeling data, with a specific focus on coastal aerial imagery captured in the wake of hurricanes that affected the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. The imagery data set is a rich observational record of storm impacts and coastal change, but the imagery requires labeling to render that information accessible. We created an online interface that served labelers a stream of images and a fixed set of questions. A total of 1,600 images were labeled by at least two or as many as seven coastal scientists. We used the resulting data set to investigate interrater agreement: the extent to which labelers labeled each image similarly. Interrater agreement scores, assessed with percent agreement and Krippendorff's alpha, are higher when the questions posed to labelers are relatively simple, when the labelers are provided with a user manual, and when images are smaller. Experiments in interrater agreement point toward the benefit of multiple labelers for understanding the uncertainty in labeling data for machine learning research.
    Beschreibung: The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the U.S. Geological Survey (G20AC00403 to EBG and SDM), NSF (1953412 to EBG and SDM; 1939954 to EBG), Microsoft AI for Earth (to EBG and SDM), The Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2018-282 to EDL and EBG), and an Early Career Research Fellowship from the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (to EBG). U.S. Geological Survey researchers (DB, J-SRO, JW, and PW) were supported by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program as part of the response and recovery efforts under congressional appropriations through the Additional Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief Act, 2019 (Public Law 116-20; 133 Stat. 871).
    Schlagwort(e): Data labeling ; Classification ; Hurricane impacts ; Machine learning ; Imagery ; Data annotation
    Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Materialart: Article
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  • 7
    Publikationsdatum: 2013-04-03
    Beschreibung: Analytical Chemistry DOI: 10.1021/ac400577p
    Print ISSN: 0003-2700
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-6882
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie
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  • 8
    Publikationsdatum: 2013-07-14
    Beschreibung: Analytical Chemistry DOI: 10.1021/ac4016648
    Print ISSN: 0003-2700
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-6882
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie
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  • 9
    Publikationsdatum: 2015-05-07
    Print ISSN: 0378-1909
    Digitale ISSN: 1573-5133
    Thema: Biologie
    Publiziert von Springer
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  • 10
    Publikationsdatum: 2016-06-01
    Print ISSN: 0025-3162
    Digitale ISSN: 1432-1793
    Thema: Biologie
    Publiziert von Springer
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