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  • 1
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    Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction (2014)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119 (2014): 8606–8623, doi:10.1002/2014JD021584.
    Description: Historical tropical cyclone (TC) and storm surge records are often too limited to quantify the risk to local populations. Paleohurricane sediment records uncover long-term TC activity, but interpreting these records can be difficult and can introduce significant uncertainties. Here we compare and combine climatological-hydrodynamic modeling (including a method to account for storm size uncertainty), historical observations, and paleohurricane records to investigate local surge risk, using Apalachee Bay in northwest Florida as an example. The modeling reveals relatively high risk, with 100 year, 500 year, and “worst case” surges estimated to be about 6.3 m, 8.3 m, and 11.3 m, respectively, at Bald Point (a paleorecord site) and about 7.4 m, 9.7 m, and 13.3 m, respectively, at St. Marks (the head of the Bay), supporting the inference from paleorecords that Apalachee Bay has frequently suffered severe inundation for thousands of years. Both the synthetic database and paleorecords contain a much higher frequency of extreme events than the historical record; the mean return period of surges greater than 5 m is about 40 years based on synthetic modeling and paleoreconstruction, whereas it is about 400 years based on historical storm analysis. Apalachee Bay surge risk is determined by storms of broad characteristics, varies spatially over the area, and is affected by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, all of which are important features to consider when accessing the risk and interpreting paleohurricane records. In particular, neglecting size uncertainty may induce great underestimation in surge risk, as the size distribution is positively skewed. While the most extreme surges were generated by the uppermost storm intensities, medium intensity storms (categories 1–3) can produce large to extreme surges, due to their larger inner core sizes. For Apalachee Bay, the storms that induced localized barrier breaching and limited sediment transport (overwash regime; surge between 3 and 5 m) are most likely to be category 2 or 3 storms, and the storms that inundated the entire barrier and deposited significantly more coarse materials (inundation regime; surge 〉 5 m) are most likely to be category 3 or 4 storms.
    Description: This research was funded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) grant NA11OAR4310101 and National Science Foundation (NSF) grants OCE-0903020 and OCE-1250506.
    Description: 2015-01-21
    Keywords: Hurricane ; Storm surge ; Paleohurricane ; Risk assessment
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
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    1,050 years of hurricane strikes on Long Island in the Bahamas (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Wallace, E. J., Donnelly, J. P., van Hengstum, P. J., Winkler, T. S., McKeon, K., MacDonald, D., d'Entremont, N. E., Sullivan, R. M., Woodruff, J. D., Hawkes, A. D., & Maio, C. 1,050 years of hurricane strikes on long island in the Bahamas. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36(3), (2021): e2020PA004156, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004156.
    Description: Sedimentary records of past hurricane activity indicate centennial-scale periods over the past millennium with elevated hurricane activity. The search for the underlying mechanism behind these active hurricane periods is confounded by regional variations in their timing. Here, we present a new high resolution paleohurricane record from The Bahamas with a synthesis of published North Atlantic records over the past millennium. We reconstruct hurricane strikes over the past 1,050 years in sediment cores from a blue hole on Long Island in The Bahamas. Coarse-grained deposits in these cores date to the close passage of seven hurricanes over the historical interval. We find that the intensity and angle of approach of these historical storms plays an important role in inducing storm surge near the site. Our new record indicates four active hurricane periods on Long Island that conflict with published records on neighboring islands (Andros and Abaco Island). We demonstrate these three islands do not sample the same storms despite their proximity, and we compile these reconstructions together to create the first regional compilation of annually resolved paleohurricane records in The Bahamas. Integrating our Bahamian compilation with compiled records from the U.S. coastline indicates basin-wide increased storminess during the Medieval Warm Period. Afterward, the hurricane patterns in our Bahamian compilation match those reconstructed along the U.S. East Coast but not in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This disconnect may result from shifts in local environmental conditions in the North Atlantic or shifts in hurricane populations from straight-moving to recurving storms over the past millennium.
    Description: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (to E. J. W.), the Dalio Explore Foundation, and National Science Foundation grant OCE-1356708 (to J. P. D. and P. J. vH.).
    Keywords: Bahamas ; Blue holes ; Carbonates ; Paleohurricanes ; Sediment cores
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  • 3
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    Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2020. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Research for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bramante, J. F., Ford, M. R., Kench, P. S., Ashton, A. D., Toomey, M. R., Sullivan, R. M., Karnauskas, K. B., Ummenhofer, C. C., & Donnelly, J. P. (2020). Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes. Nature Geoscience, 13, 806–811. doi:10.1038/s41561-020-00656-2.
    Description: The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 ce was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.
    Description: This work was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP RC-2336). C.C.U. acknowledges support from NSF under AGS-1602455. We thank student intern D. Carter for extensive labwork on core LTD3. We acknowledge the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. CMIP5 model output was provided by the WHOI CMIP5 Community Storage Server via their website: http://cmip5.whoi.edu/. Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.
    Description: 2021-05-16
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Little Ice Age ; Last millennium ; Paleoclimate
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 4
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    Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes (2020)
    Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-21
    Description: The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of climate’s influence on tropical cyclone behavior is restricted by the short historical record and sparse prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis and compare with other records to explore past regional typhoon dynamics. These records demonstrate low baseline activity prior to 1350 C.E. followed by a rapid culmination in activity during the Little Ice Age. This pattern is concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggesting a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. Using an ensemble of global climate models, we demonstrate that migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. Changes to Walker Circulation and expansion of the tropics projected for the next century invert Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.
    Description: This project was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program through award SERDP RC-2336
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Little Ice Age ; Last millennium ; Paleoclimate
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Dataset
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  • 5
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    Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Rodysill, J. R., Donnelly, J. P., Sullivan, R., Lane, P. D., Toomey, M., Woodruff, J. D., Hawkes, A. D., MacDonald, D., d'Entremont, N., McKeon, K., Wallace, E., & van Hengstum, P. J. Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 19092. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75874-0.
    Description: Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.
    Description: Funding for this project was provided by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) grant and NSF awards 0903020, 1902463, and 1854980 awarded to Jeffrey Donnelly, and the USGS Land Change Science Program.
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  • 6
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    Revising evidence of hurricane strikes on Abaco Island (the Bahamas) over the last 700 years (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Winkler, T. S., van Hengstum, P. J., Donnelly, J. P., Wallace, E. J., Sullivan, R. M., MacDonald, D., & Albury, N. A. Revising evidence of hurricane strikes on Abaco Island (the Bahamas) over the last 700 years. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 16556, doi:10.1038/s41598-020-73132-x.
    Description: The northern Bahamas have experienced more frequent intense-hurricane impacts than almost anywhere else in the Atlantic since 1850 CE. In 2019, category 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale) Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the destructive potential of these natural hazards. Problematically, determining whether high hurricane activity levels remained constant through time is difficult given the short observational record (〈 170 years). We present a 700-year long, near-annually resolved stratigraphic record of hurricane passage near Thatchpoint Blue Hole (TPBH) on Abaco Island, The Bahamas. Using longer sediment cores (888 cm) and more reliable age-control, this study revises and temporally expands a previous study from TPBH that underestimated the sedimentation rate. TPBH records at least 13 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century between 1500 to 1670 CE, which exceeds the 9 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century within 50 km of TPBH since 1850 CE. The eastern United States also experienced frequent hurricanes from 1500 to 1670 CE, but frequency was depressed elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. This suggests that spatial heterogeneity in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1850 CE could have persisted throughout the last millennium. This heterogeneity is impacted by climatic and stochastic forcing, but additional high-resolution paleo-hurricane reconstructions are required to assess the mechanisms that impact regional variability.
    Description: Field support was provided by Jody Albury and the staff of Friends of the Environment in Marsh Harbour, The Bahamas, and technical support was provided was provided by M. Horgan and S. Molodtsov. Funding for this project was provided by NSF Awards OCE-1356509, OCE-1356708, OCE-1854917, OCE-1903616, and ICER-1854980. The open access publishing fees for this article have been covered by the Texas A&M University Open Access to Knowledge Fund (OAKFund), supported by the University Libraries.
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  • 7
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    Intense hurricane activity over the past 1500 years at South Andros Island, the Bahamas (2020)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in E. J., Donnelly, J. P., van Hengstum, P. J., Wiman, C., Sullivan, R. M., Winkler, T. S., d'Entremont, N. E., Toomey, M., & Albury, N. Intense hurricane activity over the past 1500 years at South Andros Island, the Bahamas. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 34(11), (2019): 1761-1783, doi:10.1029/2019PA003665.
    Description: Hurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane‐climate interactions on multi‐decadal and longer timescales. Coarse‐grained, hurricane‐induced deposits preserved in blue holes in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This record is corroborated by shorter reconstructions from cores collected at two nearby blue holes. The record contains coarse‐grained event deposits attributable to known historical hurricane strikes within age uncertainties. Over the past 1500 years, South Andros shows evidence of four active periods of hurricane activity. None of these active intervals occurred in the past 163 years. We suggest that Intertropical Convergence Zone position modulates hurricane activity on the island based on a correlation with Cariaco Basin titanium concentrations. An anomalous gap in activity on South Andros Island in the early 13th century corresponds to a period of increased volcanism. The patterns of hurricane activity reconstructed from South Andros Island closely match those from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti‐phased with records from New England. We suggest that either changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., SSTs) or a northeastward shift in storm tracks can account for the increased activity in the western North Atlantic when the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Caribbean are less active.
    Description: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (to E.J.W.), National Science Foundation grant OCE‐1356708 (to J.P.D. and P.J.vH.), the Dalio Explore Foundation and the USGS Land Change Science Program (M.R.T.). We are grateful to members of WHOI Coastal Systems Group, in particular Stephanie Madsen, for their help in the processing core samples. We thank two anonymous reviewers, Matthew Lachniet, Marci Robinson (USGS) and Miriam Jones (USGS) for their helpful feedback on earlier versions of this manuscript. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The data are available on the National Climatic Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/dataaccess/paleoclimatology‐data) and WHOI Coastal Systems Group (https://web.whoi.edu/coastal‐group/) websites.
    Keywords: Paleohurricanes ; Carbonate tidal flats ; Blue holes ; Andros ; Bahamas
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  • 8
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    Hydroclimate dipole drives multi-centennial variability in the western tropical North Atlantic Margin during the middle and late Holocene (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 36(7), (2021): e2020PA004184, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004184.
    Description: Meridional shifts of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western edge create a dipole that drives hydroclimate variability in the southeastern United States and Caribbean region. Southwest displacements suppress rainfall in the southern Caribbean. Northwest displacements drive southeast United States and northern Caribbean drying. Projections for the 21st century suggest a more meridionally displaced NASH, which jeopardizes Caribbean island communities dependent on rain-fed aquifers. While recent work indicates that Atlantic and Pacific Ocean-atmosphere variability influenced the NASH during the instrumental period, little is known about NASH behavior and subsequent hydroclimate responses over longer timescales. To address this limitation, we developed a ∼6000-years long rainfall record through the analysis of calcite raft deposits archived within sediments from a coastal sinkhole in the northeast Bahamas (Abaco Island). Increased (decreased) calcite raft deposition provides evidence for increased (decreased) rainfall driven by NASH variability. We use simulations from the Community Earth System Model to support this interpretation. These simulations improve our understanding of NASH behavior on timescales congruous with the reconstruction and suggest an important role for the state of the Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, model simulations and a compilation of regional hydroclimate reconstructions reveal that the NASH-driven dipole dominates northern and southern Caribbean rainfall on centennial timescales. These results bring Holocene Caribbean hydroclimate variability into sharper focus while providing important context for present and future changes to regional climate. Additionally, this study highlights the need for improved future predictions of the state of the Pacific Ocean to best inform water scarcity mitigation strategies for at-risk Caribbean communities.
    Description: This research was supported by the Texas A&M University CTE Montague Scholar Fund, the Geological Society of America Graduate Student Research Grant Program (EAR-1712071), and grants to Peter J. van Hengstum (OCE-1356509, EAR-1833117, EAR-1703087) and Jeffrey P. Donnelly (EAR-1702946) from the National Science Foundation.
    Description: 2022-01-05
    Keywords: Holocene hydroclimate ; calcite rafts ; sinkhole ; North Atlantic Subtropical High ; Caribbean hydroclimate dipole ; carbonate sedimentology
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  • 9
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    How unique was Hurricane Sandy? Sedimentary reconstructions of extreme flooding from New York Harbor (2014)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 4 (2014): 7366, doi:10.1038/srep07366.
    Description: The magnitude of flooding in New York City by Hurricane Sandy is commonly believed to be extremely rare, with estimated return periods near or greater than 1000 years. However, the brevity of tide gauge records result in significant uncertainties when estimating the uniqueness of such an event. Here we compare resultant deposition by Hurricane Sandy to earlier storm-induced flood layers in order to extend records of flooding to the city beyond the instrumental dataset. Inversely modeled storm conditions from grain size trends show that a more compact yet more intense hurricane in 1821 CE probably resulted in a similar storm tide and a significantly larger storm surge. Our results indicate the occurrence of additional flood events like Hurricane Sandy in recent centuries, and highlight the inadequacies of the instrumental record in estimating current flood risk by such extreme events.
    Description: Funding for this work was provided by the Hudson River Foundation Expedited Grant #004/12E, the Hudson River Foundation Graduate Fellowship 02–13, the National Science Foundation (RAPID grant #1313859 and instrument and facility support via grant IF-0949313), and the Dalio Explore Fund.
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  • 10
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    Drought in the northern Bahamas from 3300 to 2500 years ago (2018)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-04-01
    Print ISSN: 0277-3791
    Electronic ISSN: 1873-457X
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Elsevier
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