Publication Date:
2020-12-01
Description:
Background The German energy transition has entered a new phase and one important aspect is the question, to what degree the gas sector could be supplied with so-called “green” gases, i.e., gases from renewable sources. This paper focuses on the potential of domestic methane from biological origin (bio-CH4) until 2030 that is estimated with two different methods. The comparison of the results provides a consolidated estimate. Methods In a bottom-up approach, a GIS-based cluster analysis was undertaken to estimate the potential on bio-CH4 from the existing cogeneration biogas plant (BP) stock. In a top-down approach a meta-analysis of GHG-reduction scenarios with respect to bio-CH4 was performed. The meta-analysis was also extended to methane from renewable electricity (e-CH4) since the BP stock may play a role in the provision of CO2. Further, it included the year 2050 (the target year for most scenario studies) as well as issues like energy imports. Results The bottom-up approach yields a potential of 24.9 TWh of bio-CH4 for 2030. This is well within the range of the top-down analysis of 11–54 TWh (average: 32.5 TWh) for that year. In some scenarios values for e-CH4 where considerably higher, especially with respect to 2050, but in these studies the sources—including the CO2 sources—are either not explained at all or they are due to imports of e-CH4 in combination with direct air capture (DAC) rather than biogenic sources. Concerning the regional dispersion, the bottom-up analysis shows that the largest potentials (53% or 905 of the biogas plants) are located in the northern part of Germany, more particular in Lower-Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. These represent 54% or 602 MW of the installed capacity of the clusters. Conclusion The consistency of the outcomes of the two methodologically very different approaches may be called the main result of this research. Therefore, it provides a consolidated analysis of the potential for domestic supply of bio-CH4 in 2030. Furthermore, the amount corresponds to 2.7–3.5% of the German natural gas consumption in 2018. Taken bio-CH4 and e-CH4 together it corresponds to 7.2–8.0%.
Electronic ISSN:
2192-0567
Topics:
Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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