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An index of summer monsoon rainfall excess over India and its variability: 1871–1978 (1982)

Mooley, D. A. ; Parthasarathy, B. ; Sontakke, N. A.

Springer

Meteorology and atmospheric physics 31 (1982), S. 301-311

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ISSN: 1436-5065

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geography , Physics

Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Zur Schätzung der Exzesse der Aktivität des Sommer-Monsuns (Juni–September) über Indien in der Periode 1871–1978 wird ein auf den prozentuellen Flächenanteil mit in Prozenten angegebenem jahreszeitlichen Regenüberschuß basierender Index verwendet; der als Monsun-Exzess-Index (MEI) gezeichnet wird. Die Untersuchung der MEI-Reihe hat ergeben, daß diese homogen ist und eine große Veränderlichkeit aufweist. Die Häufigkeitsverteilung der MEI-Werte ist positiv schief und ein Gamma-Modell gibt eine gute Anpassung an die Reihe. Ein Jahr, in dem der MEI-Wert das neunte Dezil (d.i. 35) der der MEI-Reihe angepaßten Gamma-Verteilung überschreitet, wird als großräumiger Niederschlagsexzess über Indien betrachtet. In der Periode 1871–1978 wurden zehn solche Jahre festgestellt. Diese Exzeß-Jahre weisen eine zeitliche Zufallsverteilung auf.

Notes: Summary To assess the excess in the activity of the summer monsoon (June to September) over India during the period 1871 to 1978, an index based on the percentage area with a specified percentage seasonal rainfall excess and termed as the Monsoon Excess Index (MEI) has been used. On examination of MEI series it is found that it is homogeneous and random and has a high variability. The distribution of MEI is positively skewed and Gamma probability model is observed to be a good fit to the series. Considering the year in which the MEI value exceeds the nineth decile, i.e. 35, of the Gamma distribution fitted to the MEI series, as year of large-scale excess over India, such years have been identified during the period 1871–1978. There are ten such years. These excess years are found to be randomly distributed in time.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02278299

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2

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Fluctuations in the deficiency of the summer monsoon over India, and their effect on economy (1982)

Mooley, D. A. ; Parthasarathy, B.

Springer

Meteorology and atmospheric physics 30 (1982), S. 383-398

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ISSN: 1436-5065

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geography , Physics

Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Zur Schätzung des Ausfalls in der Aktivität des Sommermonsuns über Indien während einer Saison wurde ein für das Land auf dem Flächenprozentsatz mit angegebenem Prozentsatz des jahreszeitlichen Niederschlagsausfalls basierender Index verwendet, der als Monsun-Defizit-Index (MDI) bezeichnet wird. Die statistischen Verhältnisse der MDI-Reihen der Periode 1871–1978 wurden untersucht. Diese Reihen, die als homogen angenommen werden können, weisen eine große Veränderlichkeit auf. Im allgemeinen ist ein hoher MDI nicht andauernd; auf einen hohen Wert folgt ständig ein niedriger Wert. Das Defizit wird als großräumig bezogen auf das ganze Land betrachtet und als Monsun-Ausfall bezeichnet, wenn der MDI-Wert das neunte Dezil (nämlich 40) der den MDI-Reihen angepaßten gemischten Gamma-Verteilung erreicht oder überschreitet. Gestützt auf dieses Kriterium sind die Jahre mit Monsun-Ausfall bestimmt worden. Die Ausfälle des Monsuns wurden als Zufallserscheinungen befunden. Die Auswirkung der Monsun-Defizite auf die indische Wirtschaft wurde abgeschätzt.

Notes: Summary To assess the deficiency in the activity of the monsoon over India during the season, an index for the country based on the percentage area with a specified percentage seasonal rainfall deficiency and termed the Monsoon Deficiency Index (MDI), has been utilized. The statistical properties of the MDI series for the period 1871–1978 have been examined. The series which can be taken to be homogeneous and random has a high variability. MDI is generally not observed to persist at a high level; a high value is invariably followed by a low value. The deficiency over the country is considered as largescale and is termed as monsoon failure when the MDI value equals or exceeds the nineth decile viz. 40, of the mixed gamma distribution fitted to the MDI series. Using this criterion, the years of monsoon failure have been identified. The monsoon failures are found to occur randomly. The effect of monsoon deficiency on the Indian economy has been assessed.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02324678

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3

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Fluctuations in All-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871–1978 (1984)

Mooley, D. A. ; Parthasarathy, B.

Springer

Climatic change 6 (1984), S. 287-301

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ISSN: 1573-1480

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Abstract Analysis of the All-India summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall for the period 1871 to 1978 has been made in order to understand the interannual and long-term variability of the monsoon. On a country level, India receives 85.31 cm mean monsoon rainfall which is 78%; of the annual rainfall. The coefficient of variation of monsoon rainfall at the country level is 9.5%;. The highest and lowest rainfall country level were observed in the years 1961 and 1877 respectively, the range being 41 cm about 48%; of the long term average. There are 13/9 years of large-scale deficit/excess in the 108-yr period. There is a continuous rise in the 10-yr mean rainfall from 1899 to 1953. There are four major climatic rainfall periods in the series. Correlogram and spectrum analysis showed significant 14-yr and 2.8-yr cycles respectively in 108-yr series; however detailed examination indicated that these cycles have developed during the last 30 yr of the data period.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00142477

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4

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All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993 (1994)

Parthasarathy, B. ; Munot, A. A. ; Kothawale, D. R.

Springer

Theoretical and applied climatology 49 (1994), S. 217-224

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ISSN: 1434-4483

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Summary The Indian rainfall has often been used as a proxy data for the Asian monsoon as a whole for understanding the energy budget of the major circulation features and also used as an input parameter in estimating the other regional parameters. In view of this, a long homogeneous rainfall series of All-India (India taken as one unit) has been prepared based on a fixed and well distributed network of 306 raingauge stations over India by giving proper area-weightage. This paper contains a listing of All-India monthly, seasonal and annual homogeneous data series for the period 1871–1993. Some statistical details and long-term changes of the All-India monsoon rainfall have been discussed.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00867461

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5

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Extreme monsoonal rainfall deficits in India (1986)

Gregory, S. ; Parthasarathy, B.

Springer

Theoretical and applied climatology 37 (1986), S. 194-204

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ISSN: 1434-4483

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Daten über den sommerlichen Monsunregen (Juni–September) aus 70 Jahren (1901–70) von 306 Stationen in Indien werden in 32 Teilgebiete gruppiert. Zur Analyse der wiederkehrenden Perioden extremen Regendefizits in jedem dieser Teilgebiete wird die Theorie extremer Ereignisse verwendet, wobei die log-Pearson-Häufigkeitsverteilung vom Typ III eher in einem räumlichen als zeitlichen Zusammenhang verwendet wird. Die sich daraus ergebenden Schätzungen für wiederkehrende Perioden von 2, 5 und 10 Jahren werden mit den Mustern verglichen, die mit Hilfe der auf alle 306 Stationen einzeln angewandten Gaußschen Häufigkeitsverteilung gewonnen wurden. Die Abschätzung 50jähriger und 100jähriger Ereignisse wird ebenfalls besprochen.

Notes: Summary Data from 306 stations in India, for the 70 years (1901–70) of summer (June–September) monsoonal rainfall, are grouped into 32 sub-regions. Extreme event theory is used to analyse the return periods of extreme rainfall deficits within each of these sub-regions, using the log-Pearson type III frequency distribution in a spatial rather than a temporal context. The resultant estimates for 2, 5 and 10 year return periods are compared with the patterns derived from the Gaussian frequency distribution applied to the 306 stations individually; the 50 and 100 year return period estimates are also considered.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00867577

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6

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Surface and upper air temperatures over India in relation to monsoon rainfall (1990)

Parthasarathy, B. ; Rupa Kumar, K. ; Sontakke, N. A.

Springer

Theoretical and applied climatology 42 (1990), S. 93-110

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ISSN: 1434-4483

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Summary The relationship between the all-India summer monsoon rainfall and surface/upper air (850, 700, 500 and 200 mb levels) temperatures over the Indian region and its spatial and temporal characteristics have been examined to obtain a useful predictor for the monsoon rainfall. The data series of all-India and subdivisional summer monsoon rainfall and various seasonal air temperatures at 73 surface observatories and 9 radiosonde stations (1951–1980) have been used in the analysis. The Correlation Coefficients (CCs) between all-India monsoon rainfall and seasonal surface air temperatures with different lags relative to the monsoon season indicate a systematic relationship. The CCs between the monsoon rainfall and surface-air temperature of the preceding MAM (pre-monsoon spring) season are positive over many parts of India and highly significant over central and northwestern regions. The average surface air temperature of six stations i.e., Jodhpur, Ahmedabad, Bombay, Indore, Sagar and Akola in this region (Western Central India, WCI) showed a highly significant CC of 0.60 during the period 1951–1980. This relationship is also found to be consistently significant for the period from 1950 to present, though decreasing in magnitude after 1975. WCI MAM surface air temperature has shown significant CCs with the monsoon rainfall over eleven sub-divisions mainly in northwestern India, i.e., north of 15 °N and west of 80 °E. Upper air temperatures of the MAM season at almost all the stations and all levels considered show positive CCs with the subsequent monsoon rainfall. These correlations are significant at some central and north Indian stations for the lower and middle tropospheric temperatures. The simple regression equation developed for the period 1951–1980 isy = − 183.20 + 8.83x, wherey is the all-India monsoon rainfall in cm andx is the WCI average surface air temperature of MAM season in °C. This equation is significant at 0.1% level. The suitability of this parameter for inclusion in a predictive regression model along with five other global and regional parameters has been discussed. Multiple regression analysis for the long-range prediction of monsoon rainfall, using several combinations of these parameters indicates that the improvement of predictive skill considerably depends upon the selection of the predictors.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00868216

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7

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Poisson distribution and years of bad monsoon over India (1979)

Mooley, D. A. ; Parthasarathy, B.

Springer

Theoretical and applied climatology 27 (1979), S. 381-388

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ISSN: 1434-4483

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Aufgrund aller verfügbaren Aufzeichnungen wurde eine Reihe der Sommermonsunregen über ganz Indien für die Periode 1841 bis 1977 zusammengestellt; daraus wurden die schlechten Monsunjahre festgestellt. Es wurde gezeigt, daß das Vorkommen schlechter Monsunjahre zufällige Ereignisse im Zeitkontinuum sind und daß die Anzahl von in füntjährigen Perioden vorkommenden schlechten Monsunjahren entsprechend dem Poissonschen Wahrscheinlichkeitsgesetz verteilt ist.

Notes: Summary On the basis of all available record, a series of summer monsoon rainfall of India as a whole has been obtained for the period 1841 to 1977. Years of bad monsoon over the country have been identified. It has been shown that the occurrences of bad monsoon years are random events in the time continuum and that the number of bad monson years in a five-year period is distributed according to the Poisson probability law. A bad monsoon year dislocates the country's economy. To avoid this the country may provide adequate funds keeping in view the probability of getting bad monsson year(s) in a five-year period.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02246656

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