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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2015-11-26
    Description: An analysis of US domestic flight data for the past two decades reveals the overwhelmingly tight control of climate variability on air travel. Potential feedbacks between aviation and climate change are quantified using CMIP5 model projections. Nature Climate Change 5 1068 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2715
    Print ISSN: 1758-678X
    Electronic ISSN: 1758-6798
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-06-24
    Description: Changes in the terrestrial water balance are expected in many regions, but small islands remain difficult to assess. Research now reveals a tendency towards increased aridity in over 73% of island groups (home to around 16 million people) by mid-century. Nature Climate Change 6 720 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2987
    Print ISSN: 1758-678X
    Electronic ISSN: 1758-6798
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-04-01
    Description: Major excursions in the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and/or changes in its intensity are thought to drive tropical cyclone (TC) and precipitation variability across much of the central South Pacific. A lack of conventional sites typically used for multi-millennial proxy reconstructions has limited efforts to extend observational rainfall/TC datasets and our ability to fully assess the risks posed to central Pacific islands by future changes in fresh water availability or the frequency of storm landfalls. Here we use the sedimentary record of Apu Bay, offshore the island of Tahaa, French Polynesia, to explore the relationship between SPCZ position/intensity and tropical cyclone overwash, resolved at decadal timescales, since 3200 yrs BP. Changes in orbital precession and Pacific sea surface temperatures best explain evidence for a coordinated pattern of rainfall variability at Tahaa and across the Pacific over the late-Holocene. Our companion record of tropical cyclone activity from Tahaa suggests major storm activity was higher between 2600-1500 yrs BP, when decadal-scale SPCZ variability may also have been stronger. A transition to lower storm frequency and a shift or expansion of the SPCZ towards French Polynesia around 1000 yrs BP may have prompted Polynesian migration into the central Pacific.
    Print ISSN: 0883-8305
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9186
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2015-02-12
    Description: How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society but is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane record. Here we present a synthesis of intense-hurricane activity from the western North Atlantic over the past two millennia, which is supported by a new, exceptionally well-resolved record from Salt Pond, Massachusetts (USA). At Salt Pond, three coarse grained event beds deposited in the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob), 1675, and 1635 CE, and provide modern analogs for thirty-two other prehistoric event beds. Two intervals of heightened frequency of event bed deposition between 1400 and 1675 CE (10 events) and 150 and 1150 CE (23 events), represent the local expression of coherent regional patterns in intense-hurricane-induced event beds. Our synthesis indicates that much of the western North Atlantic appears to have been active between 250 and 1150 CE, with high levels of activity persisting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico until 1400 CE. This interval was one with relatively warm sea surface temperatures in the main development region. A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 CE, with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 CE. A warm sea surface temperature anomaly along the western North Atlantic, rather than within the main development region, likely contributed to the later active interval being restricted to the east coast.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2011-10-05
    Description: Reconstructions and observations of relative sea level (RSL) must be corrected for vertical land movements from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to facilitate comparisons among regions and identify deviations from background rates. Late Holocene (past 2 ka) GIA rates are estimated from geological data and permanent global positioning system (GPS) stations or predicted from GIA models. We used a linear trend fitted to the regional, compaction-free, RSL reconstructions compiled by Engelhart et al. (1) for the past 2 ka (excluding data since AD 1900) as a GIA estimate. Similarly, GIA models also attribute all RSL changes during the past 2 ka...
    Keywords: Letters, Sustainability Science
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2013-01-17
    Description: [1]  Available overwash records from coastal barrier systems document significant variability in North Atlantic hurricane activity during the late Holocene. The same climate forcings that may have controlled cyclone activity over this interval (e.g. the West African Monsoon, ENSO) show abrupt changes around 6000 yrs BP but most coastal sedimentary records do not span this time period. Establishing longer records is essential for understanding mid-Holocene patterns of storminess and their climatic drivers, which will lead to better forecasting of how climate change over the next century may effect tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Storms are thought to be an important mechanism for transporting coarse sediment from shallow carbonate platforms to the deep-sea and bank-edge sediments may offer an unexplored archive of long-term hurricane activity. [2]  Here we develop this new approach, reconstructing more than 7000 years of North Atlantic hurricane variability using coarse-grained deposits in sediment cores from the leeward margin of the Great Bahama Bank. High energy event layers within the resulting archive are: (1) broadly correlated throughout an offbank transect of multi-cores, (2) closely matched with historic hurricane events, and (3) synchronous with previous intervals of heightened North Atlantic hurricane activity in overwash reconstructions from Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Bahamas. Lower storm frequency prior to 4400 yrs BP in our records suggests that precession and increased NH summer insolation may have greatly limited hurricane potential intensity, outweighing weakened ENSO and a stronger West African Monsoon—factors thought to be favorable for hurricane development.
    Print ISSN: 0883-8305
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9186
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2016-02-25
    Description: The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin Scientific Reports, Published online: 24 February 2016; doi:10.1038/srep21728
    Electronic ISSN: 2045-2322
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2016-03-02
    Description: ABSTRACT Living coastal barriers, such as coral reefs, tidal marshes, mangroves and shellfish beds are widely recognized for their potential role in mitigating flood risk. Limited data exists, however, for assessing the effectiveness of these natural defenses as forms of flood mitigation. In particular, very few mature shellfish beds exist today for modern study due to their destruction in the past few centuries. As an alternative method of study, we present here sedimentary reconstructions of storm overwash from coastal ponds internal to New York Harbor. We use these reconstructions to show that the initial degradation of oyster beds following European settlement of the area coincides with a significant increase in wave-derived overwash deposition at all three of our field sites. Numerical simulations of two flood events of record in the harbor (Hurricane Sandy and a severe winter storm in 1992) were run without and with oyster beds of varying heights (1 m above the seafloor-to-intertidal). Simulations show that the removal of these oyster beds increases wave energy directly off-shore of our field sites by between 30% and 200%. Sedimentary reconstructions and wave modeling experiments therefore both support oyster beds serving as a significant form of coastal protection prior to European disturbance.
    Print ISSN: 0197-9337
    Electronic ISSN: 1096-9837
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2016-02-03
    Description: Water scarcity in semiarid environments provides a model system to evaluate the role of mesic resources in structuring the distribution and abundance of wildlife. We used remote sensing and point process analyses to evaluate spatio–temporal variability in limited mesic resources in relation to greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) distributions in Oregon, California, and northwest Nevada, USA, 1984–2011. We then link population distribution to changes in resource availability over time, space, and land tenure. Despite encompassing only 2.4% of landscape area, mesic sites influenced sage-grouse breeding distributions as evidenced by significantly shorter lek to mesic resource distances in observed (5.3 km) vs. predicted (8.2 km) values. Population abundance increased with proximity to mesic sites. Lag effects evident in abundance and proximity trends of mesic resources suggest a level of drought tolerance that moderated climatic variability. Mesic abundance and proximity remained relatively stable during the study period in comparison to more dynamic climatic patterns. Drought effects were most pronounced during multiyear events as evidenced by the 1987–1992 period that decreased mesic abundance 〉25% and approximately doubled mean lek to mesic resource distances (4.8–8.3 km). In our study area, 75% of all mesic resources were in private ownership, where the predominant land use is livestock ranching. Results suggest a holistic conservation strategy inclusive of private and public lands is needed to ensure sage-grouse habitat requisites are met throughout the life cycle of this landscape species.
    Electronic ISSN: 2150-8925
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Published by Wiley on behalf of The Ecological Society of America (ESA).
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2011-07-06
    Description: We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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