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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference: The Role of Science, the Limits of Science (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Defining “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” in the context of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) presents a complex challenge for those developing long-term climate policy. Natural science has a key role to play in quantifying vulnerabilities of elements of the Earth system and estimating the risks from a changing climate. But attempts to interpret Article 2 will inevitably draw on understanding from social science, psychology, law, and ethics. Here I consider the limits of science in defining climate “danger” by focusing on the potential disintegration of the major ice sheets as an example of an extreme impact. I show that considerations of timescale, uncertainty, and learning preclude a definition of danger drawn purely from natural science. Decisionmakers will be particularly challenged by one characteristic of global problems: answers to some scientific questions become less accurate over decadal timescales, meandering toward the wrong answer, a feature I call negative learning. I argue for a precautionary approach to Article 2 that would be based initially on current, limited scientific understanding of the future of the ice sheets.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00687.x
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Chemical reactions and the nature of comets (1980)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Accounts of chemical research 13 (1980), S. 378-384 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-4898
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/ar50154a006
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Letters. Acid deposition (1986)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 20 (1986), S. 534-534 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00148a604
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Global change biology 11 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs.Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985–2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios.The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30–50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2–1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01073.x
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (1998)
    [s.l.] : Macmillan Magazines Ltd.
    Nature 393 (1998), S. 325-332 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Of today's great ice sheets, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet poses the most immediate threat of a large sea-level rise, owing to its potential instability. Complete release of its ice to the ocean would raise global mean sea level by four to six metres, causing major coastal flooding worldwide. ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/30661
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Stratospheric sulphate production and the photochemistry of teh Antartic circumpolar vortex (1987)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 328 (1987), S. 702-704 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Stratospheric aerosols were observed over McMurdo station2 in two size ranges, radius r〉0.01 (xm and r〉0.15 (Jim corresponding to newly formed CN and optically active aerosol (OA) respectively. During the period of observation, November 1985, the vortex shifted so that McMurdo station was ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/328702a0
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Empirical relation between sulphur dioxide emissions and acid deposition derived from monthly data (1986)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 323 (1986), S. 245-247 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Sulphur dioxide emissions from 11 copper smelters in Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Nevada were summed to yield monthly regional emissions by the smelter source sector (Table 1, Fig. 1). The uncertainties in the emissions inventory are estimated at about ?5% (ref. 2). Ionic concentrations in wet ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/323245a0
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Measuring Time in the Greenhouse; An Editorial Essay (1997)
    Springer
    Climatic change 37 (1997), S. 491-505 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005335816806
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate change and environmental pollution: Physical and biological interactions (1989)
    Springer
    Climatic change 15 (1989), S. 255-270 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Climatic change projected over the next century may occur in an environment already affected by other stress, including UV-B enhancement, air pollution and increasing nutrient fluxes. Focusing on particular ecosystems, temperate zone forests, freshwater lakes, and estuaries, we have examined the interactions among these several environmental problems. An important chemical outcome of atmospheric change is the increase in oxidant levels throughout the lower atmosphere and the hydrosphere. These oxidants are phytotoxic and contribute directly and indirectly, along with other stresses on ecosystems, to the acceleration of the S, N and C cycles. These changes may lead to the net transfer of nutrients from land to coastal ocean with accompanying forest decline and coastal eutrophication. Some shifts already may be under way locally, but the synergistic nature of the stresses threatens to accelerate these processes over the next few decades. In addition to any direct consequences of climatic change, the aggravation of existing environmental problems is an important indirect consequence.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00138854
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  • 10
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    Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change (2013)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-02-12
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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