Publication Date:
2023-07-03
Description:
Looking at the past sharpens our understanding of possible future climate changes. We focus on Earth system modeling, paleoclimate data analysis, and theoretical aspects. Predicting the future spread of possible climates, the risk of climate extremes and the risk of rapid transitions is of high relevance. The past provides evidence of abrupt climate change and the frequency of extremes. Earth system models applied both to past and future scenarios enhance our ability to detect regime shifts in climates and extremes. We consider the response of the system to long-term forcing and then focus on shorter time scales down to weather. Particular aspects are: Model resolution matters for climate change and extremes; recorder systems such as O, H, C-isotopes enable a suitable interpretation of the past; data assimilation can yield a dynamically consistent picture. New high-resolution models can quantify the feedbacks in the atmosphere-ocean-ice system and inform us about the full range of climate variability and extremes.With our holistic approach, we seek to overcome known biases of deep-time polar amplification, the stochastic nature of centennial-to-millennial climate variability, as well as extremes. Here, we put emphasis on the concept of a hierarchy of models as this provides a linkage between theoretical understanding and the complexity of the system. Lohmann, Butzin, Eissner, Shi, Stepanek, 2020: Abrupt climate and weather changes across timescales. Paleoc. Paleoclim., doi:10.1029/2019PA003782 Lohmann, 2020: Temperatures from energy balance models: the effective heat capacity matters. ESD, doi:10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020 Contzen, Dickhaus, Lohmann, 2023: Long-term temporal evolution of temperature extreme in a warming Earth. PLOS, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0280503
Language:
English
Type:
info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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