ALBERT

Description: To recover the size of a space debris object from photometric measurements, it is necessary to determine its albedo and basic shape: if the albedo is known, the reflective area can be calculated; and if the shape is known, the shape and area taken together can be used to estimate a characteristic dimension. Albedo is typically determined by inferring the object s material type from filter photometry or spectroscopy and is not the subject of the present study. Object shape, on the other hand, can be revealed from a time-history of the object s brightness response. The most data-rich presentation is a continuous light-curve that records the object s brightness for an entire sensor pass, which could last for tens of minutes to several hours: from this one can see both short-term periodic behavior as well as brightness variations with phase angle. Light-curve interpretation, however, is more art than science and does not lend itself easily to automation; and the collection method, which requires single-object telescope dedication for long periods of time, is not well suited to debris survey conditions. So one is led to investigate how easily an object s brightness phase function, which can be constructed from the more survey-friendly point photometry, can be used to recover object shape. Such a recovery is usually attempted by comparing a phase-function curve constructed from an object s empirical brightness measurements to analytically-derived curves for basic shapes or shape combinations. There are two ways to accomplish this: a simple averaged brightness-versus phase curve assembled from the empirical data, or a more elaborate approach in which one is essentially calculating a brightness PDF for each phase angle bin (a technique explored in unpublished AFRL/RV research and in Ojakangas 2011); in each case the empirical curve is compared to analytical results for shapes of interest. The latter technique promises more discrimination power but requires more data; the former can be assembled in its essentials from fewer measurements but will be less definitive in its assignments. The goal of the present study is to evaluate both techniques under debris survey conditions to determine their relative performance and, additionally, to learn precisely how a survey should be conducted in order to maximize their performance. Because the distendedness of objects has more of an effect than their precise shape in calculating a characteristic dimension, one is interested in the techniques discrimination ability to distinguish between an elongated rectangular prism and a short rectangular prism or cube, or an elongated cylinder from a squat cylinder or sphere. Sensitivity studies using simulated data will be conducted to determine discrimination power for both techniques as a function of amount of data collected and range (and specific region) of phase angles sampled. Empirical GEODSS photometry data for distended objects (dead payloads with solar panels, rocket bodies) and compact objects (cubesats, calibration spheres, squat payloads) will also be used to test this discrimination ability. The result will be a recommended technique and data collection paradigm for debris surveys in order to maximize this type of discrimination.

Description: The manipulation of space object covariances to try to provide additional or improved information to conjunction risk assessment is not an uncommon practice. Types of manipulation include fabricating a covariance when it is missing or unreliable to force the probability of collision (Pc) to a maximum value ('PcMax'), scaling a covariance to try to improve its realism or see the effect of covariance volatility on the calculated Pc, and constructing the equivalent of an epoch covariance at a convenient future point in the event ('covariance forecasting'). In bringing these methods to bear for Conjunction Assessment (CA) operations, however, some do not remain fully consistent with best practices for conducting risk management, some seem to be of relatively low utility, and some require additional information before they can contribute fully to risk analysis. This study describes some basic principles of modern risk management (following the Kaplan construct) and then examines the PcMax and covariance forecasting paradigms for alignment with these principles; it then further examines the expected utility of these methods in the modern CA framework. Both paradigms are found to be not without utility, but only in situations that are somewhat carefully circumscribed.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Warning remediation threshold (Red threshold): Pc level at which warnings are issued, and active remediation considered and usually executed. Analysis threshold (Green to Yellow threshold): Pc level at which analysis of event is indicated, including seeking additional information if warranted. Post-remediation threshold: Pc level to which remediation maneuvers are sized in order to achieve event remediation and obviate any need for immediate follow-up maneuvers. Maneuver screening threshold: Pc compliance level for routine maneuver screenings (more demanding than regular Red threshold due to additional maneuver uncertainty).

Description: Satellite conjunction assessment risk analysis is a subjective enterprise that can benefit from quantitative aids and, to this end, NASA/GSFC has developed a fuzzy logic construct - called the F-value - to attempt to provide a statement of conjunction risk that amalgamates multiple indices and yields a more stable intra-event assessment. This construct has now sustained an extended tuning procedure against heuristic analyst assessment of event risk. The tuning effort has resulted in modifications to the calculation procedure and the adjustment of tuning coefficients, producing a construct with both more predictive force and a better statement of its error.

Description: Orbital maintenance parameters for individual satellites or groups of satellites have traditionally been set by examining orbital parameters alone, such as through apogee and perigee height binning; this approach ignored the other factors that governed an individual satellite's susceptibility to non-conservative forces. In the atmospheric drag regime, this problem has been addressed by the introduction of the "energy dissipation rate," a quantity that represents the amount of energy being removed from the orbit; such an approach is able to consider both atmospheric density and satellite frontal area characteristics and thus serve as a mechanism for binning satellites of similar behavior. The geo-synchronous orbit (of broader definition than the geostationary orbit -- here taken to be from 1300 to 1800 minutes in orbital period) is not affected by drag; rather, its principal non-conservative force is that of solar radiation pressure -- the momentum imparted to the satellite by solar radiometric energy. While this perturbation is solved for as part of the orbit determination update, no binning or division scheme, analogous to the drag regime, has been developed for the geo-synchronous orbit. The present analysis has begun such an effort by examining the behavior of geosynchronous rocket bodies and non-stabilized payloads as a function of solar radiation pressure susceptibility. A preliminary examination of binning techniques used in the drag regime gives initial guidance regarding the criteria for useful bin divisions. Applying these criteria to the object type, solar radiation pressure, and resultant state vector accuracy for the analyzed dataset, a single division of "large" satellites into two bins for the purposes of setting related sensor tasking and orbit determination (OD) controls is suggested. When an accompanying analysis of high area-to-mass objects is complete, a full set of binning recommendations for the geosynchronous orbit will be available.

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program has been performing routine on-orbit satellite conjunction risk analysis for unmanned NASA spacecraft since 2005, and has developed a robust operations procedure and set of recommended best practices for operational conjunction assessment. However, a number of recent developments in Space Situational Awareness and commercial space operations conduct, such as the immanent deployment of much more sensitive space sensing systems and the launching of much larger satellite constellations, have begun to challenge these standard collision risk parameters and calculations. In response CARA has pursued a multi-year evaluation initiative to re-examine risk assessment algorithms and techniques, to develop needed improvements, and to assemble analysis-based operational requirements. This paper gives an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk assessment process used at CARA, outlines the technical challenges that each part presents, surveys the possible solutions, and then indicates which particular solution is being recommended for NASA.