ALBERT

Description: The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of disasters on international tourism demand for Japan by applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention models that focus on evaluating change patterns and the duration of effects by observing variations in parameters. Japan suffered a variety of disasters, especially natural disasters due to its geographical location, so we have divided these disasters into three types: geological disasters, extreme weather events and “others” such as terrorist attacks, infectious diseases, and economic crises. Based on the principle of preparing for the worst, we selected 4 cases for each disaster type, for 12 in all. Results suggest that (1) large-scale disasters such as great earthquakes impacted negatively on inbound tourism demand for Japan; (2) not all disasters resulted in an abrupt drop in inbound tourist arrivals, extreme weather events, for example, did not decrease inbound tourism demand significantly; (3) impact caused by disasters was temporary.

Description: We are very pleased to publish the Special Issue on NIED Frontier Research on Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 2020. There are nine papers in this issue. The first two papers concern hazard and risk information systems: Sano et al. constructed a real-time risk information map for flood and landslide disasters, and Hirashima et al. created an alert system for snow removal from rooftops. These systems are already in use on the NIED website. The next three papers are case studies of recent storm disasters in Japan and the United States: Cui et al. analyzed the time variation in the distribution of damage reports in the headquarters for heavy-rainfall disaster control in Fukuoka, Shakti et al. studied flood disasters caused by Typhoon Hagibis (2019), and Iizuka and Sakai conducted a meteorological analysis of Hurricane Harvey (2017). Regarding volcanic disasters, Tanada and Nakamura reported the results of an electromagnetic survey of Mt. Nasudake. This special issue also includes three papers on large-scale model experimentation: Danjo and Ishizawa studied the rainfall infiltration process using NIED’s Large-Scale Rainfall Simulator, Kawamata and Nakazawa conducted experiments concerning liquefaction, and Nakazawa et al. reported the results of experiments on seismic retrofits for road embankments. The experiments used E-Defense, the world’s largest three-dimensional shaking table. We hope this issue will provide useful information for all readers studying natural disasters.

Description: The main purpose of this paper is to explore the vulnerability of disaster victims from the perspective of immobility, in contrast to the conventional perspective of mobility. What causes immobility in Japan? And how have immobile people been treated? In this article, I will attempt to answer these questions using some concrete examples. Immobile people have been recognized as “people requiring assistance during a disaster” (PRADD). This term helps us understand immobility in Japan. The Sanjou flood (2004) prompted the formulation of the “Guidelines for Evacuation Support of People Requiring Assistance during a Disaster.” The national government has encouraged local governments and residents to be prepared for a disaster using the guidelines. Nevertheless, preparations for disasters have not progressed very well. It was in this context that the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) occurred. During the GEJE, immobility raised the risk of death for PRADD due to the tsunami. After the tsunami, there were also PRADD who could not evacuate to shelters because they were anxious about how life would be there. Now many victims live in temporary housing. There will be people who cannot move to temporary housing in the future. It is likely that they will be mainly PRADD. These cases make it clear that immobility causes vulnerability to disasters. I will also provide an example of how mobility causes vulnerability in a disaster – a stranded commuter or person during the GEJE.

Description: Torrential and guerrilla rains have recently happened frequently and caused damage in Japan. The Japan Meteorological Agency already has an observation system that covers individual administrative boundaries to provide hazard information. It is not possible with this system, however, to determine the risk of such rain coming “right here and now.” The purpose of this research is to develop Micromedia, an information system utilizing GIS and location information that provides all individuals in Japan with realtime disaster information anywhere, anytime using mobile phones (smart phones) and car navigation systems with GPS.

Description: Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake and Nankai Trough Earthquakes predicted to hit Japan in the near future makes it urgent that the impact of urban earthquake disasters be reduced by every means possible. To promote research to this end, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan launched a Special Project for Reducing Vulnerability for UrbanMega Earthquake Disasters in 2012 as a five-year R&D effort embracing three academic disciplines – earth and physical sciences, structural engineering, and social sciences. This project in turn consists of three subprojects – Subproject on the earthquake hazard mechanism and risk evaluation of southern Kanto region, Subproject to develop rapid damage assessment and recovery technology of urban function, and Subproject to develop resilient society improving disaster management competence. This special issue features findings and achievements from this last subproject, whose goal is to enhance society’s resilience based on the experiences and lessons of the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster that crippled Kobe, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster that prostrated Japan’s northeastern Pacific coast and other such disasters. Concretely speaking, by integrating the wisdom of disaster management researchers nationwide and collaborating with other subprojects, this subproject proposes disseminating disaster information technologies and training methodologies to build up disaster preparedness. This, in turn, is aided by improving disaster literacy and competence among both the general public and disaster management personnel. Focusing on the three major metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka, where two-thirds of Japan’s population and three-fourths of the nation’s total assets are concentrated, Web-based disaster information management and dissemination services are being proposed and examined for effectiveness through demonstration experiments and social implementation. In this issue of JDR, we are introducing 11 papers and reports from researchers involved in this subproject to present initial interim findings and progress during the first half of this five-year effort. In doing so, the authors and editors of this issue gratefully acknowledge the generous financial support of MEXT in these studies.

Description: This special issue of JDR is centered on the theme of “Building Local Capacity for Long-term Disaster Resilience.” Eight papers and one commentary describe challenges in various countries of promoting disaster resilience at local, sub-national, and national levels. Resilience is broadly defined here as the capacity of a community to: 1) survive amajor disaster; 2) retain essential structure and functions; and 3) adapt to post-disaster opportunities for transforming community structure and functions to meet new challenges. This working definition is similar to others put forward in the growing literature on resilience. Resilience can also be seen as an element of sustainability. Initially referring only to environmental conditions, the concept of sustainable development was defined as that which meets the needs of present generations while not compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Bruntland Commission, Our Common Future, 1987). Now, the term sustainability has come to mean the need to preserve all resources for future use, including social, physical, economic, cultural and historical, as well as environmental resources. Disasters destroy resources, making communities less sustainable or even unsustainable. Resilience helps to protect resources, among other things, through coordination of all four disaster management functions: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Mitigation commonly involves reduction of risks and prevention of disaster losses through long-term sustained actions modifying the environment. Preparedness involves specific preparations for what to do and how to respond during a disaster at the personal, household, and community level. Response means actions taken immediately after a disaster to rescue survivors, conduct evacuation, feed and shelter victims, and restore communications. Recovery involves restoring lives, infrastructure, services, and economic activity, while seeking long-term community improvement. When possible, emphasis should be placed on building local resilience before a disaster when opportunities are greater for fostering sustainable physical, social, economic, and environmental structures and functions. Waiting until after a disaster to pursue sustainability invites preventable losses and reduces post-disaster resilience and opportunities for improvement. Community resilience involves both “soft” strategies which optimize disaster preparedness and response, and “hard” strategies which mitigate natural and human-caused hazards, thereby reducing disaster losses. Both “soft” and “hard” strategies are undertaken during disaster recovery. In many countries “soft” and “hard” resilience approaches coexist as uncoordinated activities. However, experience suggests that disaster outcomes are better when “soft” and “hard” strategies are purposely coordinated. Thus, “smart” resilience involves coordination of both “soft” and “hard” resilience strategies, i.e., “smart ” resilience = “soft ” resilience + “hard ” resilience. This concept is reflected in papers in Part 1 of this special issue, based on case studies from India, Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, and the US. Additional resilience studies from Japan, the US, and Venezuela will be featured in Part 2 of this special issue. The first group of papers in Part 1 review resilience issues in regional and community recovery. Chandrasekahr (1) uses a case study to illustrate varying effects of formal stakeholder participatory framework on capacity building following the 2004 Southeast Asia Tsunami from post-disaster recovery in southern India. Chen and Wang (2) examine multiple resiliency factors reflected in community recovery case studies from the Taiwan 1999 Chi Chi Earthquake and debris flow evacuation after Typhoon Markot of 2009. Kamel (3) compares factors affecting housing recovery following the US Northridge Earthquake and Hurricane Katrina. The second group of papers examines challenges of addressing resiliency at national and sub-national scales. Velazquez (4) examines national factors affecting disaster resilience in Mexico. Topping (5) provides an overview of the U.S. Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000, a nationwide experiment in local resilience capacity building through federal financial incentives encouraging local hazard mitigation planning. Boswell, Siembieda, and Topping (6) describe a new method to evaluate effectiveness of federally funded hazard mitigation projects in the US through California’s State Mitigation Assessment Review Team (SMART) loss reduction tracking system. The final group of papers explores methods of analysis, information dissemination, and pre-event planning. Siembieda (7) presents a model which can be deployed at any geographic level involving timely access to assets in order to reduce pre- and post-disaster vulnerability, as illustrated by community disaster recovery experiences in Central America. Hayashi (8) outlines a new information dissemination system useable at all levels called “micromedia” which provides individuals with real time disaster information regardless of their location. Finally, Poland (9) concludes with an invited special commentary addressing the challenges of creating more complete earthquake disaster resilience through pre-event evaluation of post-event needs at the community level, using San Francisco as the laboratory. The Editorial Committee extends its sincere appreciation to both the contributors and the JDR staff for their patience and determination in making this special issue possible. Thanks also to the reviewers for their insightful analytic comments and suggestions. Finally, the Committee wishes to thank Bayete Henderson for his keen and thorough editorial assistance and copy editing support.

Description: 1. Introduction It is expected that Tokyo Metropolitan area and her vicinity may be jolted by a devastating earthquake with a 70% chance for the next 30 years. If it happens, an unprecedented scale of damage and losses may follow. With the severity of possible consequences due to this earthquake, a special project, entitled as “Special Project for Metropolitan Earthquake DisasterMitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area” (2007-2011), is commissioned by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan (MEXT), This special project consists of three subprojects; Seismology, Earthquake Engineering, and Crisis Management and Recovery. In this issue of JDR, we will introduce 10 papers produced as a series of the achievements from the subproject on Crisis Management and Recovery. This subproject considers Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake as a national crisis occurred in the Tokyo metropolitan area. All the available knowledge of disaster researchers should be gathered from nationwide, including both emergency response and long-term recovery to minimize damage and losses. This project examines measures for improving the capacity for the people from disaster management organizations to react to crisis and help rebuilding life recovery of disaster victims. An information-sharing platform will be proposed to comprehensively manage individual disaster response and recovery measures. “Training and exercise systems” will be introduced to empower local capacity to mitigate and recover from disaster by integrating all of the project achievements among stakeholders. The final goal of this project is to make ourselves prepared for help the anticipated 25 million victims at most due to Tokyo Metropolitan earthquake.

Description: We announce that the Fourth JDR Award was won by Professor Emeritus Nobuo Shuto, Tohoku University, Japan. We congratulate the winner and sincerely wish for future success.