ALBERT

Description: In this study, we assess the geomorphic role of a rare, large-magnitude landslide event and consider the effect of this event on mountain forest ecosystems and the erosion of organic carbon in an Andean river catchment. Proximal triggers such as large rain storms are known to cause large numbers of landslides, but the relative effects of such low-frequency, high-magnitude events are not well known in the context of more regular, smaller events. We develop a 25 year duration, annual-resolution landslide inventory by mapping landslide occurrence in the Kosñipata Valley, Peru, from 1988 to 2012 using Landsat, Quickbird and Worldview satellite images. Catchment-wide landslide rates were high, at 0.076 % yr−1 by area, indicating landslides may completely turn over hillslopes every ~ 1320 years and strip 28 tC km−2 yr−1 of soil (73 %) and vegetation (27 %). A single rain storm in March 2010 accounted for 27 % of all landslide area observed during the 25 year study and removed 26 % of the organic carbon that was stripped from hillslopes by all landslides during the study. An approximately linear magnitude–frequency relationship for annual landslide areas suggests that large storms contribute an equivalent landslide failure area to the sum of smaller frequency landslides events occurring over the same period. However, the spatial distribution of landslides associated with the 2010 storm is distinct. On the basis of precipitation statistics and landscape morphology, we hypothesize that spatial focusing of storm-triggered landslide erosion at lower elevations in the Kosñipata catchment may be characteristic of longer-term patterns. These patterns may have implications for the source and composition of sediments and organic material supplied to river systems of the Amazon basin, and, through focusing of regular ecological disturbance, for the species composition of forested ecosystems in the region.

Description: In this study, we assess the geomorphic role of a rare, large-magnitude landslide-triggering event and consider its effect on mountain forest ecosystems and the erosion of organic carbon in an Andean river catchment. Proximal triggers such as large rain storms are known to cause large numbers of landslides, but the relative effects of such low-frequency, high-magnitude events are not well known in the context of more regular, smaller events. We develop a 25-year duration, annual-resolution landslide inventory by mapping landslide occurrence in the Kosñipata Valley, Peru, from 1988 to 2012 using Landsat, QuickBird, and WorldView satellite images. Catchment-wide landslide rates were high, averaging 0.076 % yr−1 by area. As a result, landslides on average completely turn over hillslopes every  ∼  1320 years, although our data suggest that landslide occurrence varies spatially and temporally, such that turnover times are likely to be non-uniform. In total, landslides stripped 26 ± 4 tC km−2 yr−1 of organic carbon from soil (80 %) and vegetation (20 %) during the study period. A single rain storm in March 2010 accounted for 27 % of all landslide area observed during the 25-year study and accounted for 26 % of the landslide-associated organic carbon flux. An approximately linear magnitude–frequency relationship for annual landslide areas suggests that large storms contribute an equivalent landslide failure area to the sum of lower-frequency landslide events occurring over the same period. However, the spatial distribution of landslides associated with the 2010 storm is distinct. On the basis of precipitation statistics and landscape morphology, we hypothesise that focusing of storm-triggered landslide erosion at lower elevations in the Kosñipata catchment may be characteristic of longer-term patterns. These patterns may have implications for the source and composition of sediments and organic material supplied to river systems of the Amazon Basin, and, through focusing of regular ecological disturbance, for the species composition of forested ecosystems in the region.

Description: This paper shows recent progress in our understanding of climate variability and trends in the Amazon region, and how these interact with land use change. The review includes an overview of up-to-date information on climate and hydrological variability, and on warming trends in Amazonia, which reached 0.6–0.7°C over the last 40 years, with 2016 as the warmest year since at least 1950 (0.9°C + 0.3°C). We focus on local and remote drivers of climate variability and change. We review the impacts of these drivers on the length of dry season, the role of the forest in climate and carbon cycles, the resilience of the forest, the risk of fires and biomass burning, and the potential “die back” of the Amazon forests if surpassing a “tipping point”. The role of the Amazon in moisture recycling and transport is also investigated, and a review of model development for climate change projections in the region is included. In sum, future sustainability of the Amazonian forests and its many services requires management strategies that consider the likelihood of multi-year droughts superimposed on a continued warming trend. Science has assembled enough knowledge to underline the global and regional importance of an intact Amazon region that can support policymaking and to keep this sensitive ecosystem functioning. This major challenge requires substantial resources and strategic cross-national planning, and a unique blend of expertise and capacities established in Amazon countries and from international collaboration. This also highlights the role of deforestation control in support of policy for mitigation options as established in the Paris Agreement of 2015.

Description: In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).