ISSN:
1573-059X
Keywords:
decision support
;
task effects
;
sales forecast
;
go/no-go decisions
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Economics
Notes:
Abstract This paper examines the role of managerial judgment in forming a final forecast, or judging the achievability of a critical level of sales, when multiple forecasts or opinions are available to the decision maker. Several factors that can help improve the quality of human intervention are identified and incorporated in a decision aid. Experimental results show that aided combination can help the decision maker exploit her relevant private information and mitigate the generally observed negative effects of human intervention. Further, the results suggest that emphasizing expected sales, even when the organization is primarily interested in go/no-go decisions, helps improve performance. Several suggestions for future research are presented. “Neither hand nor mind alone, left to themselves, amount to much; instruments and aids are the means to perfection.”Francis Bacon
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00993954
Permalink