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  • 1
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    Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage (2009)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2009-12-18
    Description: With polar temperatures approximately 3-5 degrees C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (approximately 125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1-2 degrees C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (〉or=-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr(-1) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr(-1). Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Kopp, Robert E -- Simons, Frederik J -- Mitrovica, Jerry X -- Maloof, Adam C -- Oppenheimer, Michael -- England -- Nature. 2009 Dec 17;462(7275):863-7. doi: 10.1038/nature08686.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA. rkopp@alumni.caltech.edu〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20016591" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Algorithms ; Antarctic Regions ; Global Warming/*statistics & numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect ; Greenland ; History, 21st Century ; History, Ancient ; *Ice Cover ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; *Probability ; Seawater/*analysis ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Uncertainty
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 2
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    High-resolution local magnetic field models for the Martian South Pole from Mars Global Surveyor data (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-08-25
    Description: We present two high-resolution local models for the crustal magnetic field of the Martian South Polar region. Models SP130 and SP130M were derived from three-component measurements made by Mars Global Surveyor at nighttime and at low altitude (〈200 km). The availability area for these data covers the annulus between latitudes − 76 ∘ and − 87 ∘ and contains a strongly magnetized region (southern parts of Terra Sirenum) adjacent to weakly magnetized terrains (such as Prometheus Planum). Our localized field inversions take into account the region of data availability, a finite spectral bandlimit (spherical-harmonic degree L  = 130), and the varying satellite altitude at each observation point. We downward-continue the local field solutions to a sphere of Martian polar radius 3376 km. While weakly magnetized areas in model SP130 contain inversion artifacts caused by strongly magnetized crust nearby, these artifacts are largely avoided in model SP130M, a mosaic of inversion results obtained by independently solving for the fields over individual subregions. Robust features of both models are magnetic stripes of alternating polarity in southern Terra Sirenum that end abruptly at the rim of Prometheus Planum, an impact crater with a weak or undetectable magnetic field. From a prominent and isolated dipole-like magnetic feature close to Australe Montes, we estimate a paleopole with a best-fit location at longitude 207 ∘ and latitude 48 ∘ . From the abruptly ending magnetic field stripes, we estimate average magnetization values of up to 15 A/m.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 3
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    Mapping Greenland's mass loss in space and time (2012)
    National Academy of Sciences
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    Publication Date: 2012-11-19
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 4
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    Double-difference adjoint seismic tomography (2016)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2016-07-16
    Description: We introduce a ‘double-difference’ method for the inversion for seismic wave speed structure based on adjoint tomography. Differences between seismic observations and model predictions at individual stations may arise from factors other than structural heterogeneity, such as errors in the assumed source-time function, inaccurate timings and systematic uncertainties. To alleviate the corresponding non-uniqueness in the inverse problem, we construct differential measurements between stations, thereby reducing the influence of the source signature and systematic errors. We minimize the discrepancy between observations and simulations in terms of the differential measurements made on station pairs. We show how to implement the double-difference concept in adjoint tomography, both theoretically and practically. We compare the sensitivities of absolute and differential measurements. The former provide absolute information on structure along the ray paths between stations and sources, whereas the latter explain relative (and thus higher resolution) structural variations in areas close to the stations. Whereas in conventional tomography a measurement made on a single earthquake-station pair provides very limited structural information, in double-difference tomography one earthquake can actually resolve significant details of the structure. The double-difference methodology can be incorporated into the usual adjoint tomography workflow by simply pairing up all conventional measurements; the computational cost of the necessary adjoint simulations is largely unaffected. Rather than adding to the computational burden, the inversion of double-difference measurements merely modifies the construction of the adjoint sources for data assimilation.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 5
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    Mapping Greenland's mass loss [Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences] (2012)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-05
    Description: The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Early estimates of the mass lost from the Greenland ice cap, based on satellite gravity data collected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, have widely varied. Although the continentally and decadally averaged estimated trends have...
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 6
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    Spectral and spatial decomposition of lithospheric magnetic field models using spherical Slepian functions (2013)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2013-03-12
    Description: Global magnetic field models are typically expressed as spherical-harmonic expansion coefficients. Slepian functions are linear combinations of spherical harmonics that produce new basis functions, which vanish approximately outside chosen geographical boundaries but also remain orthogonal within the spatial region of interest. Hence, they are suitable for decomposing spherical-harmonic models into portions that have significant magnetic field strength only in selected areas. Slepian functions are spatio-spectrally concentrated, balancing spatial bias and spectral leakage. Here, we employ them as a basis to decompose the global lithospheric magnetic field model MF7 up to degree and order 72, into two distinct regions. One of the resultant fields is concentrated within the ensemble of continental domains, and the other is localized over its complement, the oceans. Our procedure neatly divides the spectral power at each harmonic degree into two parts. The field over the continents dominates the overall crustal magnetic field, and each region has a distinct power-spectral signature. The oceanic power spectrum is approximately flat, while that of the continental region shows increasing power as the spherical-harmonic degree increases. We provide a further breakdown of the field into smaller, non-overlapping continental and oceanic regions, and speculate on the source of the variability in their spectral signatures.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 7
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    Maximum-likelihood estimation of lithospheric flexural rigidity, initial-loading fraction and load correlation, under isotropy (2013)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2013-05-09
    Description: Topography and gravity are geophysical fields whose joint statistical structure derives from interface-loading processes modulated by the underlying mechanics of isostatic and flexural compensation in the shallow lithosphere. Under this dual statistical-mechanistic viewpoint an estimation problem can be formulated where the knowns are topography and gravity and the principal unknown the elastic flexural rigidity of the lithosphere. In the guise of an equivalent ‘effective elastic thickness’, this important, geographically varying, structural parameter has been the subject of many interpretative studies, but precisely how well it is known or how best it can be found from the data, abundant nonetheless, has remained contentious and unresolved throughout the last few decades of dedicated study. The popular methods whereby admittance or coherence, both spectral measures of the relation between gravity and topography, are inverted for the flexural rigidity, have revealed themselves to have insufficient power to independently constrain both it and the additional unknown initial-loading fraction and load-correlation factors, respectively. Solving this extremely ill-posed inversion problem leads to non-uniqueness and is further complicated by practical considerations such as the choice of regularizing data tapers to render the analysis sufficiently selective both in the spatial and spectral domains. Here, we rewrite the problem in a form amenable to maximum-likelihood estimation theory, which we show yields unbiased, minimum-variance estimates of flexural rigidity, initial-loading fraction and load correlation, each of those separably resolved with little a posteriori correlation between their estimates. We are also able to separately characterize the isotropic spectral shape of the initial-loading processes. Our procedure is well-posed and computationally tractable for the two-interface case. The resulting algorithm is validated by extensive simulations whose behaviour is well matched by an analytical theory with numerous tests for its applicability to real-world data examples.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 8
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    A probabilistic assessment of sea level variations within the last interglacial stage (2013)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-04-11
    Description: The last interglacial stage (LIG; ca . 130–115 ka) provides a relatively recent example of a world with both poles characterized by greater-than-Holocene temperatures similar to those expected later in this century under a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Previous analyses inferred that LIG mean global sea level (GSL) peaked 6–9 m higher than today. Here, we extend our earlier work to perform a probabilistic assessment of sea level variability within the LIG highstand. Using the terminology for probability employed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports, we find it extremely likely (95 per cent probability) that the palaeo-sea level record allows resolution of at least two intra-LIG sea level peaks and likely (67 per cent probability) that the magnitude of low-to-high swings exceeded 4 m. Moreover, it is likely that there was a period during the LIG in which GSL rose at a 1000-yr average rate exceeding 3 m kyr –1 , but unlikely (33 per cent probability) that the rate exceeded 7 m kyr –1 and extremely unlikely (5 per cent probability) that it exceeded 11 m kyr –1 . These rate estimates can provide insight into rates of Greenland and/or Antarctic melt under climate conditions partially analogous to those expected in the 21st century.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 9
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    Hazard and rates of sea level rise: What can we learn from the last interglacial? (2009)
    Institute of Physics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2009-02-01
    Print ISSN: 1755-1307
    Electronic ISSN: 1755-1315
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Institute of Physics
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  • 10
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    Multimode Rayleigh wave inversion for heterogeneity and azimuthal anisotropy of the Australian upper mantle (2002)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2002-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
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