ALBERT

Description: The Mediterranean and Black Sea operational forecasting systems are developed and continuously improved in the context of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The two systems operationally produce analyses and 10-days forecasts of the main physical parameters (Temperature, Salinity, Sea Level, Currents, Mixed Layer Depth) with a resolution of about 4.5km in the horizontal over 141 vertical levels in the Mediterranean Sea, and about 3km in the horizontal over 31 vertical levels in the Black Sea. The hydrodynamic numerical solutions are based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) model coupled to a 3D variational data assimilation method (3DVAR) able to assimilate in-situ temperature and salinity profiles, satellite along-track sea level anomaly and sea surface temperature (in the Mediterranean Sea a nudging to satellite SST-L4 dataset is provided). The Mediterranean system is also 2-way online coupled with the WW3 (WaveWatch3) wave model to better represent the surface drag coefficient. The two systems are forced by 1/8o degree ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric fields. The systems are validated in near real time and the quality of the products is monitored through regional websites (http://medfs.cmcc.it/ and http://bsfs.cmcc.it/) showing the analysis and forecast field maps at different depths (in case of 3D variables) as well as a weekly validation of model analysis compared with available observations. The focus of this work is to present the latest modelling system upgrades and the related improvements achieved by showing the model skill assessment including comparison with in-situ and satellite observational datasets.

Description: Unpublished

Description: San Diego, CA, USA

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: Riverine influences in the Mediterranean Sea are investigated by means of numerical experiments performed with an ocean general circulation model implemented in the basin, along with the model capability to correctly reproduce the thermohaline properties of the basin through an improved representation of the riverine inputs. As a first step, an improved implementation of the Dardanelles Strait inflow into the Mediterranean Sea is performed, moving from a river-like parameterization to a lateral open boundary condition implementation. The river runoff impacts on the Mediterranean Sea are then evaluated by means of sensitivity experiments considering an increased number of river runoff sources, different riverine outflow salinity values, a modified mixing at river mouths and a different vertical mixing scheme adopted in the ocean model. With the purpose of further improving the representation of the estuarine processes affecting the riverine outflow salinity and volume flux, which cannot be resolved by the current resolution of the Mediterranean Sea ocean model, an Estuary Box Model simulating the estuaries dynamics is implemented at each river and 1-way offline coupled with the Mediterranean Sea ocean model. The results of the performed numerical experiments are validated with respect to in situ and satellite observations to evaluate the capability of the model to correctly represent the thermohaline properties of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, the riverine influences are evaluated assessing the impacts of the tested river runoff forcings on the mixed layer depth, the circulation pattern, the sea surface height and the water volume transport through the major straits of the Mediterranean Sea, comparing the numerical results with available climatological data sets and reference literature.

Description: Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna

Description: Published

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: The Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (MED-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and provides regular and systematic information on the time-evolving Mediterranean Sea physical (including waves) and biogeochemical state. The systems consist of 3 components: 1) Med-Physics, a numerical ocean prediction systems, based on NEMO model, that operationally produces analyses, reanalysis and short term forecasts of the main physical parameters; 2) Med-Biogeochemistry, a biogeochemical analysis, reanalysis and forecasting system based on the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) which provides information on chlorophyll, phosphate, nitrate, primary productivity, oxygen, phytoplankton biomass, pH and pCO2; 3) Med-Waves based on WAM model and providing analysis, forecast and reanalysis products for waves. The systems have been recently upgraded at a resolution of 1/24 degree in the horizontal and 141 vertical levels. The Med-Physics analysis and forecasting system is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO 2-way coupled with the third-generation wave model WaveWatchIII and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields. The model solutions are corrected by the 3DVAR data assimilation system (3D variational scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem) with a daily assimilation cycle of sea level anomaly and vertical profiles of temperature and salinity. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. The biogeochemical analysis and forecasts are produced by means of the MedBFM v2.1 modeling system (i.e. the physical-biogeochemical OGSTM-BFM model coupled with the 3DVARBIO assimilation scheme) forced by the outputs of the Med-Physics product. Seven days of analysis/hindcast and ten days of forecast are bi-weekly produced on Wednesday and on Saturday, with the assimilation of surface chlorophyll concentration from satellite observations. In-situ data are mainly used to estimate model uncertainty at different spatial scales. The Med-Waves modelling system is based on the WAM Cycle 4.5.4 wave model code. It consists of a wave model grid covering the Mediterranean Sea at a 1/24° horizontal resolution, nested to a North Atlantic grid at a 1/6° resolution. The system is forced by ECMWF winds at 1/8°. Refraction due to surface currents is accounted by the system which assimilates altimeter along-track significant wave height observations. On a daily basis, it provides 1-day analysis and 5-day forecast hourly wave parameters. Currently, wave buoy observations of significant wave height and mean wave period along with satellite observations are used to calibrate and validate the Med-waves modelling system.

Description: Published

Description: Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: INGV has developed fully operational short term forecasting system at the Mediterranean basin scale, which has demonstrated to be a valuable asset for the Institution, the Research Community, and for the Community at large. The INGV Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFSINGV) provides daily forecasts and weekly analysis of the main physical parameters in the Mediterranean Basin (http://medforecast.bo.ingv.it/). The available variables provide continuous monitoring of the flow field evolution in the recent past and daily 10days forecast, contributing to enhancing understanding of the ocean and supporting better management of the marine environment (marine security, fisheries, environmental and resources protection, naval operations and tourism). The system consists of a coupled hydrodynamicwave model based on NEMO code with a data assimilation component. The model horizontal resolution is 1/16 of a degree and is resolved over 72 unevenly spaced vertical levels, from surface up to 5500m. The system also manages an operational database, both in real time and delayed mode, which provides all the boundary conditions (initial conditions, lateral and atmospheric forcing fields) and the observed data to be assimilated, constraining the forecast error below acceptable values.

Description: Published

Description: Rome

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: This work describes a set of numerical experiments carried out using a coupled wave-ocean modeling system implemented in the Mediterranean Sea in order to meet the needs of an improvement of the operational sea state and current analysis and forecasts in the framework of the MyOcean FollowOn project. MyOcean is a series of projects granted by the European Commission within the GMES Program (Seventh Framework Program), whose objective is a pan-European capacity for ocean monitoring and forecasting.

Description: ingv

Description: Published

Description: 1-54

Description: 3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Società

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: INGV

Description: Published

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is a numerical ocean prediction system that produces analyses, reanalyses and short term forecasts for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. The system is now part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) providing regular and systematic information about the physical state and dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea through the Med-MFC (Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center). MFS has been implemented in the Mediterranean Sea with 1/16o horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels and is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 2-way online coupled with the third generation wave model WW3 (WaveWatchIII) and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields at 1/8o horizontal resolution. The model solutions are corrected by the data assimilation system (3D variational-3Dvar scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem, Dobricic and Pinardi, 2008) with a daily assimilation cycle of satellite Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) and vertical profiles of Temperature and Salinity. In this study we present a new estimate the of the background error covariance matrix with vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) that are defined at each grid point of the model domain in order to better account for the error covariance between temperature and salinity in the shelf and open ocean areas. Moreover the Error covariance matrix is z-dependent and varies in each month. This new dataset has been tested and validated for more than 2 years against a background error correlation matrix varying only seasonally and in thirteen sub-regions of the Mediterranean Sea. Latest developments include the implementation of an upgraded 3Dvar (Storto et al. 2012) for a high-resolution model, 1/24o in the horizontal and 141 vertical levels

Description: Published

Description: Bergen, Norway

Description: 3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Società

Description: The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is a numerical ocean prediction system that operationally produces analyses, reanalyses and short-term forecasts of the main physical parameters for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. This work is specifically focused on the description and evaluation of the analysis and forecast modeling system that covers the analysis of the current situation and produces daily updates of the following 10 days forecast. The system has been recently upgraded in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) by increasing the grid resolution from 1/16o to 1/24o in the horizontal and from 72 to 141 vertical levels, by increasing the number of fresh water river inputs and by updating the data assimilation scheme. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. In order to validate the modeling system and to estimate the accuracy of the model products, a quality assessment is regularly performed including both pre-operational qualification and near real time (NRT) validation procedures. Pre-operational qualification activities focus on testing the improvements of the quality of the new system with respect to the previous version and relies on past simulation and historical data, while NRT validation activities aim at routinely and on-line providing the skill assessment of the model analysis and forecasts and relies on the NRT available observations. The focus of this work is to present the new operational modeling system and the skill assessment including comparison with independent (insitu coastal moorings) and quasi-independent (insitu vertical profiles and satellite) datasets.

Description: Published

Description: Bergen, Norway

Description: 3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Società

Description: The near real time monitoring and long-term assessment of the physical state of the ocean are crucial for the wide CMEMS user community providing a continuous and up to date overview of key indicators computed from operational analysis and reanalysis datasets. This constitutes an operational warning system on particular events, stimulating the research towards a deeper understanding of them and consequently increasing CMEMS products uptake. Ocean Monitoring Indicators (OMIs) of some Essential Ocean Variables have been identified and developed by the Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (MED-MFC) under the umbrella of the CMEMS MYP WG (Multi Year Products Working Group). These OMIs have been operationally implemented starting from the physical reanalysis products and then they have been applied to the operational analyses product. Sea surface temperature, salinity, height as well as heat, water and momentum fluxes at the air-sea interface have been operationally implemented since the reanalysis system development as a real time monitoring of the data production. Their consistency analysis against available observational products or budget values recognized in literature guarantees the high quality of the numerical dataset. The results of the reanalysis validation procedures are yearly published in the QUality Information Document since 2014 available through the CMEMS catalogue (http://marine.copernicus.eu), together with the yearly dataset extension. New OMIs of the winter mixed layer depth, the eddy kinetic energy and the heat content will be presented, in particular we will analyze their time evolution and trends starting from 1987, then we will focus on the recent time period 2013-2016 when reanalysis and analyses datasets overlap to show their consistency beside their different system implementation (i.e. atmospheric forcing, wave coupling, nesting). At the end the focus will be on 2016 sea state and circulation of the Mediterranean Sea and its anomaly with respect to the climatological fields to early detect the 2016 peculiarities.

Description: Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service

Description: Published

Description: Vienna

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: This study describes a new model implementation for the Mediterranean Sea that has been achieved in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The numerical ocean prediction system, that operationally produces analyses and forecasts of the main physical parameters for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas, has been upgraded by increasing the grid resolution from 1/16o to 1/24o in the horizontal and from 72 to 141 unevenly spaced vertical levels, by increasing the number of fresh water river inputs and by updating the data assimilation scheme. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the airsea interface. The focus of this work is to present the new modelling system which will become operational in the near future and the validation assessment including the comparison with an independent non assimilated dataset (coastal moorings) and quasi-independent (in situ vertical profiles and satellite) datasets. The results show that the higher resolution model is capable of representing most of the variability of the general circulation in the Mediterranean Sea, however some improvements need to be implemented in order to enhance the model ability in reproducing specific hydrodynamic features particularly the Sea Level Anomaly.

Description: Published

Description: Bergen, Norway

Description: 3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Società