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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-01-18
    Description: The aim of this paper is to identify the ground motion models (GMMs), applicable in active shallow crustal regions (ASCRs) and subduction zones (SZs), to be used for the new release of the seismic hazard model of Italy (MPS19) for peak ground acceleration and 12 ordinates of the acceleration response spectra (5% damping) in the period range 0.05–4 s. The steps to achieve such goal are: (1) a pre-selection of the GMMs that takes into account the suitability for the application to the Italian territory and the fulfillment of the new hazard model requirements; (2) the assessment of a proper scoring of the pre-selected GMMs using strong-motion data recorded in Italy; (3) the selection of the GMMs to be used in the hazard calculation. The final set of GMMs describes satisfactorily the epistemic uncertainty of the ground shaking process, privileging the simplicity and flexibility of the functional form. Finally, the weights of the selected GMMs are assigned combining the results of the scoring and the weights obtained through an experts’ elicitation.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3487–3516
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-04-13
    Description: We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years.
    Description: Published
    Description: SE112
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-12-18
    Description: Tectonic styles and distributions of nodal planes are an essential input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. As a part of a recent elaboration of a new seismic hazard model for Italy, we adopted a cascade criteria approach to parametrize the tectonic style of expected earthquake ruptures and their uncertainty in an area-based seismicity model. Using available or recomputed seismic moment tensors for relevant seismic events (Mw starting from 4.5), first arrival focal mechanisms for less recent earthquakes, and also geological data on past activated faults, we collected a database for the last ~ 100 yrs gathering a thousand of data all over the Italian peninsula and regions around it. The adopted procedure consists, in each seismic zone, of separating the available seismic moment tensors in the three main tectonic styles, making summation within each group, identifying possible nodal plane(s) taking into account the different percentages of tectonic styles and including, where necessary, total or partial random source contributions. Referring to the used area source model, for several seismic zones we obtained robust results, e.g. along the southern Apennines we expect future earthquakes to be mostly extensional, although in the outer part of the chain strike-slip events are possible. In the Northern part of the Apennines we also expect different tectonic styles for different hypocentral depths. In zones characterized by a low seismic moment release, the possible tectonic style of future earthquakes is less clear and it has been represented using different combination (total or partial) of random sources.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3577–3592
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-03-30
    Description: In 2015, the Seismic Hazard Centre (CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) was commissioned to engage and coordinate the national community with the aim of elaborating a new reference seismic hazard model, which is expected to be released in mid 2018. CPS outlined a roadmap to describe the main features of this complex endeavour, including the different scientific tasks, milestones and timelines. The scientific tasks focus their work on i) improving the quality and the accuracy of the input data (e.g. historical seismic catalogue, seismotectonic zonation, etc.); ii) building new earthquake rate models based on these new input data, iii) selecting the most proper ground motion prediction equations, iv) testing the overall seismic hazard model as well as each component; v) combining the results of the statistical testing phase and the outcome of an expert's elicitation session to assign a weight to each component of the final seismic hazard model. The new seismic hazard model is based on an innovative coherent probabilistic framework, which allows a proper description of the aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and the validation of the seismic hazard model. Here, we describe the progresses made up to now, the comparison between the new and the official national model, and finally we discuss the scientific aspects that have the most significant impact on the new picture of PSHA in Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: Blenheim (New Zealand)
    Description: 1SR. TERREMOTI - Servizi e ricerca per la Società
    Keywords: Italy ; Seismic hazard ; Building code
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-03-23
    Description: The 24 August 2016 earthquake very heavily struck the central sector of the Apennines among the Lazio,Umbria, Marche and Abruzzi regions, devastating the town of Amatrice, the nearby villages and other localities along the Tronto valley. In this paper we present the results of the macroseismic field survey carried out using the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS) to take the heterogeneity of the building stock into account. We focused on the epicentral area, where geological conditions may also have contributed to the severity of damage. On the whole, we investigated 143 localities; the maximum intensity 10 EMS has been estimated for Amatrice, Pescara del Tronto and some villages in between. The severely damaged area (8-9 EMS) covers a strip trending broadly N-S and extending 15 km in length and 5 km in width; minor damage occurred over an area up to 35 km northward from the epicenter.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3T. Storia Sismica
    Description: 4T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Macroseismic survey ; EMS intensity ; Amatrice 2016 earthquake ; 04.06. Seismology ; 05.02. Data dissemination
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
    Description: The Amatrice earthquake of 24 August 2016 (Mw 6.0) struck an area that in the national reference seismic hazard model (MPS04) is characterized by expected horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years higher than 0.25 g. After the occurrence of moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes with a strong impact on the population, such as the L’Aquila 2009 and Emilia 2012 ones (Mw 6.1 and 5.9, respectively), possible underestimations of the seismic hazard by MPS04 were investigated, in order to analyze and evaluate the possible need for its update. One of the most common misunderstanding is to compare recorded PGA with the PGA value with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years only. Moreover, by definition, probabilistic models cannot be validated (or rejected) on the basis of a single event. However, comparisons of forecasted shakings with observed data are useful for understating the consistency of the model. It is then worth highlighting the importance of these comparisons. In fact, MPS04 is the basis for the current Italian building code to provide the effective design procedures and, thus, any modification to the seismic hazard values would also affect the building code. In this paper, comparisons between recorded ground motion during the Amatrice earthquake and seismic hazard estimates are performed, in order to evaluate the consistency between predicted and observed accelerations.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-08-02
    Description: The Italian reference seismic hazard model was released in 2004, but it has been adopted for the definition of seismic zones in 2006 and for building code only in 2009. At the beginning of 2015 the Seismic Hazard Center (CPS) of INGV was commissioned to coordinate the national scientific community with the aim of elaborating a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly finalized to the update of seismic code. The CPS designed a roadmap to release within 2 years a significantly renewed model, with regard both to the updated input elements and to the strategies to follow, in order to obtain a shared and largely accepted PSHA. The main requirements of the model were discussed in meetings with the experts on earthquake engineering. A public call was opened according to a transparent procedure; we received 24 proposals from many national institutions. The activities were organized in 6 tasks: project coordination, input data, seismicity models, ground motion prediction equations, computation and rendering, validation. In the first phase, the working groups of each task worked separately; in the second phase of the project they collaborated to release a final model. During the project, many scientific aspects were carefully considered, as in many other seismic hazard projects: the use of a declustered catalogue versus a non declustered one, the adoption of the logic-tree approach instead of an ensemble modeling, the definition of objective strategies to assign the weight to each single model, and so on.
    Description: Published
    Description: Santiago Chile
    Description: 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; Italy ; Building code
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-11-27
    Description: During the new elaboration of the hazard model for Italy, a study on the indications we may collect on the tectonic style of future earthquakes and seismic ruptures has been done. All available seismic moment tensors for relevant seismic events (Mw starting from 4.5) of the last 100 yrs, first arrival focal mechanisms for less recent earthquakes and geological data on activated faults have been collected in a unique database, that includes a thousands of data all over the Italian peninsula. After several summation trials, changing parameters, seismogenic thicknesses and taking into account the characteristics of seismicity distribution, a unique computation procedure has been applied to each of the 50 seismic zones of the new seismogenic zonation for Italy. The re- sults for several seismic zones are very stable, for instance in the southern Apennines we expect mostly extensional earthquakes, although in the outer part of the chain strike-slip events are possible. In the northern part of the Apennines we also expect different, opposite tectonic styles for different hypocentral depths. In several zones, characterised by a low seismic moment release, the next possible tectonic style of future earthquakes is less clear and it has been represented using different combination (total or partial) of random sources. A comparison of our results with recent earthquakes moment tensor show a good agreement with the computed possible tectonic style.
    Description: Submitted
    Description: Soussa, Tunisia
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Keywords: Seismic Moment Tensor ; Tectonic Style ; Seimotectonic and Seismic Hazard
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-04-29
    Description: In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.
    Description: Published
    Description: SE220
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-11-17
    Description: The geographic distribution of earthquake effects quantified in terms of macroseismic intensities, the so-called macroseismic field, provides basic information for several applications including source characterization of pre-instrumental earthquakes and risk analysis. Macroseismic fields of past earthquakes as inferred from historical documentation may present spatial gaps, due to the incompleteness of the available information. We present a probabilistic approach aimed at integrating incomplete intensity distributions by considering the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties and the discrete and ordinal nature of intensity values. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for two well-known strong earthquakes (i.e., 1980 southern Italy and 2009 central Italy events). A possible application of the approach is also illustrated relative to a 16th-century earthquake in the northern Apennines.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2299–2311
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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