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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 25 (1991), S. 1674-1681 
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 15 (1995), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: As interest in quantitative analysis of joint uncertainty and interindividual variability (JUV) in risk grows, so does the need for related computational shortcuts. To quantify JUV in risk, Monte Carlo methods typically require nested sampling of JUV in distributed inputs, which is cumbersome and time-consuming. Two approximation methods proposed here allow simpler and more rapid analysis. The first consists of new upper-bound JUV estimators that involve only uncertainty or variability, not both, and so never require nested sampling to calculate. The second is a discrete-probability-calculus procedure that uses only the mean and one upper-tail mean for each input in order to estimate mean and upper-bound risk, which procedure is simpler and more intuitive than similar ones in use. Application of these methods is illustrated in an assessment of cancer risk from residential exposures to chloroform in Kanawah Valley, West Virginia. Because each of the multiple exposure pathways considered in this assessment had separate modeled sources of uncertainty and variability, the assessment illustrates a realistic case where a standard Monte Carlo approach to JUV analysis requires nested sampling. In the illustration, the first proposed method quantified JUV in cancer risk much more efficiently than corresponding nested Monte Carlo calculations. The second proposed method also nearly duplicated JUV-related and other estimates of risk obtained using Monte Carlo methods. Both methods were thus found adequate to obtain basic risk estimates accounting for JUV in a realistically complex risk assessment. These methods make routine JUV analysis more convenient and practical.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 14 (1994), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Compounded conservatism (or “creeping safety”) describes the impact of using conservative, upper-bound estimates of the values of multiple input variates to obtain a conservative estimate of risk modeled as an increasing function of those variates. In a simple multiplicative model of risk, for example, if upper p-fractile (100pth percentile) values are used for each of several statistically independent input variates, the resulting risk estimate will be the upper p'-fractile of risk predicted according to that multiplicative model, where p' 〉 p. The amount of compounded conservativism reflected by the difference between p' and p may be substantial, depending on the number of inputs, their relative uncertainties, and the value of p selected. Particular numerical examples of compounded conservatism are often cited, but an analytic approach may better serve to conceptualize and communicate its potential quantitative impact. This note briefly outlines such an approach and illustrates its application to the case of risk modeled as a product of lognormally distributed inputs.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 8 (1988), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models describing the uptake, metabolism, and excretion of xenobiotic compounds are now proposed for use in regulatory health-risk assessments. In this study we investigate the extent of PCE metabolism arising from domestic respiratory exposure to tetrachloroethylene (PCE) from ground water, as predicted using a PBPK model. Indoor exposure patterns we use as input to the PBPK model are realistic ones generated from a three-compartment model describing volatilization of PCE from domestic water into household air. Values we use for the metabolic parameters of the PBPK model are estimated from data on urinary metabolites in workers exposed to PCE. It is shown that for respiratory PCE exposure due to typical levels of PCE in ground water, use of time-weighted average air concentrations with a steady-state PBPK model yields estimates of total metabolized PCE similar to those obtained using completely dynamic modeling, despite considerable uncertainty in key exposure- and metabolic-model parameters. These findings suggest that, for PCE, risk estimation taking pharmacokinetics into account may be accomplished using a simple analytic approach.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 7 (1987), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: An integrated, quantitative approach to incorporating both uncertainty and interindividual variability into risk prediction models is described. Individual risk R is treated as a variable distributed in both an uncertainty dimension and a variability dimension, whereas population risk I (the number of additional cases caused by R) is purely uncertain. I is shown to follow a compound Poisson-binomial distribution, which in low-level risk contexts can often be approximated well by a corresponding compound Poisson distribution. The proposed analytic framework is illustrated with an application’to cancer risk assessment for a California population exposed to 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane from ground water.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 10 (1990), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The Homeland Security Act mandates the development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to, and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define “consequences” by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on the scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically-related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-02-03
    Print ISSN: 0167-6369
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-2959
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Published by Springer
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-05-16
    Description: The 2016 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessment for ethylene oxide (EO) estimated a 10−6 increased inhalation cancer risk of 0.1 parts per trillion, based on National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) epidemiology studies of sterilization facility workers exposed to EO between 1938 and 1986. The worker exposure estimates were based on a NIOSH statistical regression (NSR) model “validated” with EO levels measured after 1978. Between 1938 and 1978, when EO data was unavailable, the NSR model predicts exposures lowest in 1938 increasing to peak levels in 1978. That increasing EO concentration trend arose, in part, because engineering/industrial-hygiene (E/IH) factors associated with evolving EO-sterilization equipment and operations before 1978 were not properly considered in the NSR model. To test the NSR model trend prediction, a new E/IH-based model was developed using historical data on EO kill concentrations, EO residue levels in sterilized materials, post-wash EO concentrations in a sterilization chamber, and information on facility characteristics and sterilizer operator practices from operators familiar with pre-1978 industry conditions. The E/IH 90th percentile of 8 h time-weighted average EO exposures (C90) for highly exposed sterilizer operators was calibrated to match 1978 C90 values from the NSR model. E/IH model C90 exposures were estimated to decrease over time from levels 16 and were four-fold greater than NSR-estimated exposures for workers during 1938–1954 and 1955–1964. This E/IH modeled trend is opposite to that of NSR model predictions of exposures before 1978, suggesting that EPA’s exclusive reliance on the NIOSH cohort to estimate EO cancer risk should be re-examined.
    Print ISSN: 1661-7827
    Electronic ISSN: 1660-4601
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Medicine
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2003-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0265-931X
    Electronic ISSN: 1879-1700
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Published by Elsevier
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