ALBERT

Description: Rapid post-earthquake damage assessment is critical to short-term earthquake crisis management. Reinforced concrete buildings may accumulate damage during an aftershock sequence, and short-term damage forecasts after the mainshock can aid in decision-making (in particular, on whether to allow immediate occupancy) before further damage actually occurs. This paper presents an operative damage forecasting and building tagging procedure for reinforced concrete buildings during synthetic aftershock sequences near Thessaloniki, Greece, for two hypothetical earthquake scenarios. The synthetic aftershock sequences are simulated, and the time-variant seismic vulnerability is modeled based on fragility curves for the damage state thresholds in terms of period elongation. Period elongation is chosen as a damage proxy because it is available for rapid damage assessment in buildings with permanent monitoring systems or for city-scale post-earthquake surveys. Time-variable damage state probabilities owing to aftershocks are estimated, and a building tagging scheme is proposed based on a traffic-light concept (red-orange-green) to assist in seismic crisis management during aftershock sequences.

Description: Tsunamis constitute a significant hazard for European coastal populations, and the impact of tsunami events worldwide can extend well beyond the coastal regions directly affected. Understanding the complex mechanisms of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation, as well as managing the tsunami risk, requires multidisciplinary research and infrastructures that cross national boundaries. Recent decades have seen both great advances in tsunami science and consolidation of the European tsunami research community. A recurring theme has been the need for a sustainable platform for coordinated tsunami community activities and a hub for tsunami services. Following about three years of preparation, in July 2021, the European tsunami community attained the status of Candidate Thematic Core Service (cTCS) within the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) Research Infrastructure. Within a transition period of three years, the Tsunami candidate TCS is anticipated to develop into a fully operational EPOS TCS. We here outline the path taken to reach this point, and the envisaged form of the future EPOS TCS Tsunami. Our cTCS is planned to be organised within four thematic pillars: (1) Support to Tsunami Service Providers, (2) Tsunami Data, (3) Numerical Models, and (4) Hazard and Risk Products. We outline how identified needs in tsunami science and tsunami risk mitigation will be addressed within this structure and how participation within EPOS will become an integration point for community development.

Description: Excellent science is enabled and enriched through making the relevant scientific research tools and results directly accessible to the scientific communities and the civil societies. The European Tsunami Risk Service (ETRiS) aims to collect, harmonize and make available tsunami risk related data (e.g., impact, damage, consequences), data products (e.g., fragility and vulnerability curves), software, and services in a way that they are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable by a broad user base. ETRiS is part of the;candidate Thematic Core Service for tsunami (http://tsunamidata.org) and is integrated into the Data Portal of the European Plate Observing System;(EPOS,;https://www.ics-c.epos-eu.org).This web platform (https://eurotsunamirisk.org) provides data products and services required for probabilistic tsunami risk analysis (PTRA) in a multi-risk context. Here are some features:Maps: visualizing data products and data setsData Products: damage scales, fragility curves, consequence models, vulnerability curvesTsunami Impact and Consequence Datasets: selected raw/processed datasets of impact and damage incurred by tsunamiTsunami Risk Modeller’s Toolkit: software and tools for tsunami risk analysis, stand-alone software and tools for post-processing raw data, model testing and validation E-Learning: Online teaching material, Jupiter notebooks, docker applications for probabilistic analysis and uncertainty characterization and propagation, fragility and vulnerability modelling, model testing and selectionUser support and organization of user testing and feedback workshops.We herein present this service and its features and solicit input and collaborations for enriching it and widening its scope.;This work is supported by Horizon Europe Project Geo-INQUIRE. Geo-INQUIRE is funded by the European Commission under project no. 101058518 within the HORIZON-INFRA-2021-SERV-01 call.

Description: The present work proposes a simulation-based Bayesian method for parameter estimation and fragility model selection for mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (MECE) damage states. This method uses an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) based on likelihood estimation using point-wise intensity values. It identifies the simplest model that fits the data best, among the set of viable fragility models considered. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for empirical fragility assessments for two different tsunami events and different classes of buildings with varying numbers of observed damage and flow depth data pairs. As case studies, observed pairs of data for flow depth and the corresponding damage level from the South Pacific tsunami on 29 September 2009 and the Sulawesi–Palu tsunami on 28 September 2018 are used. Damage data related to a total of five different building classes are analysed. It is shown that the proposed methodology is stable and efficient for data sets with a very low number of damage versus intensity data pairs and cases in which observed data are missing for some of the damage levels.