ALBERT

Description: Sea level rise is an important aspect of future climate change because, without upgraded coastal defences, it is likely to lead to significant impacts. Here we report on two aspects of sea-level rise that have implications for the avoidance of dangerous climate change and stabilisation of climate. If the Greenland ice sheet were to melt it would raise global sea levels by around 7m. We discuss the likelihood of such an event occurring in the coming centuries. We also examine the time scales associated with sea-level rise and demonstrate that long after atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations or global temperature have been stabilised coastal impacts may still be increasing.

Description: The City of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ~150 years, this was characterized by a secular linear trend of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in understanding, estimating and predicting the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with focus on the most recent publications. The current best estimate of historical sea-level rise in Venice, based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects, is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year (period from 1872 to 2019). Subsidence thus contributed to about half of the observed relative sea-level rise over the same period. A higher – yet more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed during recent decades, estimated from tide-gauge data to be about 2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year in the period 1993–2019 for the climatic component alone. An unresolved issue is the contrast between the observational capacity of tide gauges and satellite altimetry, with the latter tool not covering the Venice Lagoon. Water mass exchanges through the Gibraltar Strait currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Subsidence and regional atmospheric and oceanic circulation mechanisms can deviate Venetian relative sea-level trends from the global mean values for several decades. Regional processes will likely continue to determine significant interannual and interdecadal variability of Venetian sea level with magnitude comparable to that observed in the past, as well as non-negligible differential trends. Our estimate of the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate change is presently estimated between 11 and 110 centimetres. An improbable yet possible high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 170 centimetres of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of natural and human induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, further increasing the hazard posed by climatically-induced sea-level changes.

Description: An approach to analyze high-end sea level rise is presented to provide a conceptual framework for high-end estimates as a function of time scale, thereby linking robust sea level science with stakeholder needs. Instead of developing and agreeing on a set of high-end sea level rise numbers or using an expert consultation, our effort is focused on the essential task of providing a generic conceptual framework for such discussions and demonstrating its feasibility to address this problem. In contrast, information about high-end sea level rise projections was derived previously either from a likely range emerging from the highest view of emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (currently the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) or from independent ad hoc studies and expert solicitations. Ideally, users need high-end sea level information representing the upper tail of a single joint sea level frequency distribution, which considers all plausible yet unknown emission scenarios as well as involved physical mechanisms and natural variability of sea level, but this is not possible. In the absence of such information we propose a framework that would infer the required information from explicit conditional statements (lines of evidence) in combination with upper (plausible) physical bounds. This approach acknowledges the growing uncertainty in respective estimates with increasing time scale. It also allows consideration of the various levels of risk aversion of the diverse stakeholders who make coastal policy and adaptation decisions, while maintaining scientific rigor.

Description: The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.

Description: The morphodynamic behaviour of the shoreface of the Holland coast has been investigated over the medium- and large-scales (years to decades). This is a wave-dominated, uniform coastline backed by dunes and uninterrupted by tidal inlets. The work takes a data-orientated approach using the long' profiles in a data set extending over 32 years and covering 81 km of coast. These profiles are spaced every 1 km alongshore and extend to a maximum offshore distance of 3 km (approximately 16 m water depth). Previous work based upon cross-shore profiles suggests that there is a seaward limit to significant depth change, or activity, on the upper shoreface over the small- and medium-scales (termed depth of closure'). Examination of the data set shows that the middle and lower shoreface is also morphologically active in many instances, with the activity increasing with timescale. Many profiles exhibit closure on the upper shoreface, and then reopen on the middle/lower shoreface, exhibiting morphological activity. This deeper shoreface morphodynamics appears to be related to onshore supply of sand to the active zone. Hence, the analysis shows that the upper, middle and lower shoreface are coupled, as widely assumed, and has widespread significance for understanding long-term coastal evolution.

Description: Human interference in soft coastal cliff retreat causes problems worldwide. Building defences alters the sediment budget, frequently causing a sediment deficit down-drift resulting in increased retreat rates. Subsequently, undefended shorelines become set back from protection works, often causing excessive and unexpected land and infrastructure loss, prompting defence extensions. Down-drift of groynes, this is known as the terminal groyne effect. From case studies, this paper determines the effects of human interference on soft cliffs, and investigates excessive land loss and likely future coastal response. Using 10.5 km of soft cliffs in Christchurch Bay, UK as a study region, a historical shoreline analysis from the mid 19th century to the present day was undertaken. Detailed analysis was conducted at three case study sites to determine whether retreat rates had increased down-drift after the construction of protection works. After defence construction, increased retreat occurred at all three sites, albeit for only a few hundred metres down-drift, as propagation was limited owing to a headland or large sediment volumes. Set-backs can lead to artificial headland formation, making the coast more challenging and costly to defend. Shoreline management plans advocating protection or realignment should take account of natural features to enhance engineering design and reduce excess land loss.

Description: Vibrational modes affect fundamental physical properties such as the conduction of sound and heat and can be sensitive to nano- and atomic-scale structure. Probing the momentum transfer dependence of vibrational modes provides a wealth of information about a materials system; however, experimental work has been limited to essentially bulk and averaged surface approaches or to small wave vectors. We demonstrate a combined experimental and theoretical methodology for nanoscale mapping of optical and acoustic phonons across the first Brillouin zone, in the electron microscope, probing a volume ~10 10 to 10 20 times smaller than that of comparable bulk and surface techniques. In combination with more conventional electron microscopy techniques, the presented methodology should allow for direct correlation of nanoscale vibrational mode dispersions with atomic-scale structure and chemistry.

Description: Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four...