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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Long-term variations of monthly insolation as related to climatic changes (1981)
    Springer
    International journal of earth sciences 70 (1981), S. 748-758 
    Details
    ISSN: 1437-3262
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract Qualitative multivariate models which combine past insolations of selected months at selected latitudes explains 55 to 67% of the variance in the 135 millenia long oxygen isotope record of Pleistocene climates. The insolation was computed from a new astronomic solution which includes terms to the second order with respect to the disturbing masses, and the third degree with respect to the planetary eccentricities and inclinations (Berger, 1978 a). Barring human interference, the models predict the next peak of natural cooling between 3 and 6 millenia after present. Following amelioration, another much colder peak is predicted at about 55–60 millenia after present.
    Abstract: Résumé Différents modèles de régression multivariée, combinant les insolations du passé géologique pour des mois et les latitude pré-sélectionnées, expliquent 55 à 67% de la variation climatique totale des 135 000 dernières années, telle que fournie par les données géologiques. Ces insolations mensuelles furent calculées à partir d'une nouvelle solution astronomique pour les éléments orbitaux de la Terre. Cette solution est précise au second ordre des masses et au 3d degré des excentricités et des inclinaisons (Berger, 1978 a). A l'exclusion de toute intervention humaine, les modèles prévoient un refroidissement dont le maximum sera atteint entre 3000 et 6000 après notre ère (A. P.). Après une amélioration sensible, un autre refroidissement, nettement plus intense, est prévu vers 60 000 ans A. P.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Verschiedene multivariate Modelle die zurückgreifend die Sonneneinstrahlung ausausgewählter Monate und Breitengrade kombinieren, erklären 55% bis 67% der gesamten klimatischen Variation der letzten 135 000 Jahre, die durch Sauerstoffisotopen-Daten belegt wurden. Diese monatlichen Sonneneinstrahlungen wurden nach einer neuen astronomischen Lösung für die Elemente der Erdbahn berechnet. Diese Lösung ist aus der zweiten Ordnung der Masse und dem dritten Grad der Exzentrizitäten und der Inklinationen berechnet (Berger, 1978 a). Ohne menschliches Eingreifen ergibt sich aus den Modellen eine Abkühlung, deren Höchstwert zwischen 3000 und 6000 Jahren nach unserer Zeit erreicht sein wird. Nach einer fühlbaren Verbesserung des Klimas ergibt sich eine weitere, strengere Abkühlung in etwa 60 000 Jahren.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01822148
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A 140,000-year continental climate reconstruction from two European pollen records (1989)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 338 (1989), S. 309-313 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The dramatic and cyclic changes that have characterized the Earth's climate throughout the Quaternary may be illustrated by developments during the last such cycle which took place over the past 140,000 years. Quantitative reconstruction of the continental climate over this period improves the ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/338309a0
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Temperature and rainfall estimates for the past 40,000 years in equatorial Africa (1990)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 346 (1990), S. 347-349 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Pollen data contains climate information which can be extracted using a variety of statistical techniques11'12. Although the response of vegetation to climate needs further investigation13, pollen data have already provided successful quantitative estimates of climate parameters for temperate ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/346347a0
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The climate of Europe 6000 years ago (1996)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 13 (1996), S. 1-9 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Palaeoclimates across Europe for 6000 y BP were estimated from pollen data using the modern pollen analogue technique constrained with lake-level data. The constraint consists of restricting the set of modern pollen samples considered as analogues of the fossil samples to those locations where the implied change in annual precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P–E) is consistent with the regional change in moisture balance as indicated by lakes. An artificial neural network was used for the spatial interpolation of lake-level changes to the pollen sites, and for mapping palaeoclimate anomalies. The climate variables reconstructed were mean temperature of the coldest month (T c ), growing degree days above 5  °C (GDD), moisture availability expressed as the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (α), and P–E. The constraint improved the spatial coherency of the reconstructed palaeoclimate anomalies, especially for P–E. The reconstructions indicate clear spatial and seasonal patterns of Holocene climate change, which can provide a quantitative benchmark for the evaluation of palaeoclimate model simulations. Winter temperatures (T c ) were 1–3 K greater than present in the far N and NE of Europe, but 2–4 K less than present in the Mediterranean region. Summer warmth (GDD) was greater than present in NW Europe (by 400–800 K day at the highest elevations) and in the Alps, but 〉400 K day less than present at lower elevations in S Europe. P–E was 50–250 mm less than present in NW Europe and the Alps, but α was 10–15% greater than present in S Europe and P–E was 50–200 mm greater than present in S and E Europe.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050148
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    High frequency pulses of East Asian monsoon climate in the last two glaciations: link with the North Atlantic (1996)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 12 (1996), S. 701-709 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Three loess sections in the Loess Plateau of China have been studied to characterize the variations of the East Asian monsoon climate in the Late Quaternary period. Paleo-weathering profiles based on two weathering indices reveal a series of spatially correlative intervals of lower weathering intensity (LW), in the last glacial and late penultimate glacial loess, indicating significantly cooler or/and drier conditions. Most of them are identified at or near the transitional boundaries between loess and soil units, suggesting that climatic conditions favorable for LW events tended to occur at or near major climatic boundaries. Twenty-eight radiocarbon and thermoluminescence measurements, combined with Kukla's magnetic susceptibility age model date these events at ∼14, ∼21, ∼29, ∼38, ∼52, ∼71, ∼135, and ∼145 ka BP, with ∼5–10 ka frequency inlaid within the orbitally induced ∼20-ka periodicity. The ages of the first six events in the last glacial period are therefore close to those of the coarse-grained Heinrich layers in the North Atlantic Ocean, which resulted from massive discharges of icebergs. The results indicate that the climate in the area affected by the East Asian monsoon has experienced high-frequency changes more or less synchronous with the Heinrich events. These high-frequency changes have been reported by Porter and An, based on the grain-size time series from the Luochuan loess section. Our data also reveal that similar events also occurred during the penultimate glaciation. The mechanisms linking the Heinrich events and the East Asian monsoon climate may be similar to that driving the Younger Dryas event which has been identified in a large number of records in China and in the surrounding oceans.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050137
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Quantitative estimates of full glacial temperatures in equatorial Africa from palynological data* (1992)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 6 (1992), S. 251-257 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a new reconstruction of the mean annual temperature obtained from a high altitude pollen sequence in equatorial Africa (3°28′S, 29°34′E, 2240 m). It has been achieved with an extended modern African reference data set by adding spectra from 228 new sites and using another selection for pollen taxa. The purpose of this paper is to test how the obtained temperature value depends upon the availability of modern analogues. The results are in good agreement with those previously published, reinforcing the validity of the method. The mean standard error is reduced by 0.3°C. The mean temperature for the Holocene appears + 1.4°C warmer than the present and the last glacial maximum (25-18 kyrs BP) cooling is better specified at − 3 ± 1.9° C, a conservative value, more consistent with reconstructed sea surface temperature in the equatorial ocean.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00193538
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Holocene climatic change in Morocco: a quantitative reconstruction from pollen data (1998)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 14 (1998), S. 883-890 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  Annual precipitation, July and January temperatures were reconstructed from a continuous Holocene pollen sequence from the Middle Atlas, Morocco, using the best modern analogues method. The reconstructions show a clear difference between the early and late Holocene: from ∼10 ka to ∼6.5 ka the climate was drier and warmer than during the period since 6.5 ka. The average value of annual precipitation was ∼870 mm until 6.5 ka, then rose to ∼940 mm. Between 10 ka and 6.5 ka January and July temperatures were about 4 °C higher than the present. Both temperatures show a marked decrease between 7 ka and 6 ka. After 6.5 ka July and January temperatures fluctuated between 21 and 23 °C, and 2.5 and 5 °C respectively. January temperatures show a period of intermediate values (∼3.5 °C) between 4 ka and 5.5 ka. The reconstructed climate values generally match palaeolimnological data from the same core, which show five intervals of low lake level during the Holocene. They are also consistent with regional-scale COHMAP simulated palaeoclimate that shows contrasting patterns of rainfall variation between the northwesternmost part of Africa and the intertropical band.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050262
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Last Glacial Maximum climate of the former Soviet Union and Mongolia reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossil data (1999)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 15 (1999), S. 227-240 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  An improved concept of the best analogues method was used to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate from a set of botanical records from the former Soviet Union and Mongolia. Terrestrial pollen and macrofossil taxa were grouped into broad classes – plant functional types (PFTs), defined by the ecological and climatic parameters used in the BIOME1 model. PFT scores were then calibrated in terms of modern climate using 1245 surface pollen spectra from Eurasia and North America. In contrast to individual taxa, which exhibit great variability and may not be present in the palaeoassemblages, even in suitable climates, PFTs are more characteristic of the vegetation types. The modified method thus allows climate reconstruction at time intervals with partial direct analogues of modern vegetation (e.g. the LGM). At 18 kBP, mean temperatures were 20–29 °C colder than today in winter and 5–11 °C colder in summer in European Russia and Ukraine. Sites from western Georgia show negative, but moderate temperature anomalies compared to today: 8–11 °C in January and 5–7 °C in July. LGM winters were 7–15 °C colder and summers were 1–7 °C colder in Siberia and Mongolia. Annual precipitation sums were 50–750 mm lower than today across northern Eurasia, suggesting a weakening of the Atlantic and Pacific influences. Reconstructed drought index shows much drier LGM conditions in northern and mid-latitude Russia, but similar to or slightly wetter than today around the Black Sea and in Mongolia, suggesting compensation of precipitation losses by lower-than-present evaporation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050278
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Data-model comparison using fuzzy logic in paleoclimatology (1999)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 15 (1999), S. 569-581 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  Until now, most paleoclimate model-data comparisons have been limited to simple statistical evaluation and simple map comparisons. We have applied a new method, based on fuzzy logic, to the comparison of 17 model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) climate with reconstruction of three bioclimatic parameters (mean temperature of the coldest month, MTCO, growing degree-days above 5 °C, GDD5, precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P−E) from pollen and lake-status data over Europe. With this method, no assumption is made about the distribution of the signal and on its error, and both the error bars related to data and to model simulations are taken into account. Data are taken at the drilling sites (not using a gridded interpolation of proxy data) and a varying domain size of comparison enables us to make the best common resolution between observed and simulated maps. For each parameter and each model, we compute a Hagaman distance which gives an objective measure of the goodness of fit between model and data. The results show that there is no systematic order for the three climatic parameters between models. None of the models is able to satisfactorily reproduce the three pollen-derived data. There is larger dispersion in the results for MTCO and P−E than for GDD5. There is also no systematic relationship between model resolution and the Hagaman distance, except for P−E. The more local character of P−E has little chance to be reproduced by a low resolution model, which can explain the inverse relationship between model resolution and Hagaman distance. The results also reveal that most of the models are better at predicting 6 ka climate than the modern climate.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050301
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry (1999)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 15 (1999), S. 823-856 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ18O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (14C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050317
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