ALBERT

Description: Humanity is modifying the atmospheric water cycle, via land use, climate change, air pollution, and weather modification. Given the implications of this, we present a theoretical framing of atmospheric water as an economic good. Historically, atmospheric water was tacitly considered a ‘public good’ since it was neither actively consumed (rival) nor controlled (exclusive). However, given anthropogenic changes, atmospheric water is becoming 'common-pool’ (rival, non-excludable) or 'club’ (non-rival, excludable). Moreover, advancements in weather modification presage water becoming a 'private’ good (i.e. rival, excludable). In this research, we explore the implications of different economic goods framings using story-based scenarios of human modifications of the atmospheric water cycle. We blend computational text analysis with expert perspectives to create science fiction prototypes of the future. The economic goods framing highlights that social choices play an enormous role in how the future will unfold with regard to human interaction with the atmospheric water cycle. The narrative scenarios serve two purposes. First, they provide creative artifacts for the investigation of future interactions with the atmospheric water cycle, that are rooted in a scientific evidence base. Second, they articulate trajectories of our coupled social-hydrological world that require deeper interrogation and anticipation in the present.

Description: Forests account for nearly 90 % of the world's terrestrial biomass in the form of carbon and they support 80 % of the global biodiversity. To understand the underlying forest dynamics, we need a long-term but also relatively high-frequency, networked monitoring system, as traditionally used in meteorology or hydrology. While there are numerous existing forest monitoring sites, particularly in temperate regions, the resulting data streams are rarely connected and do not provide information promptly, which hampers real-time assessments of forest responses to extreme climate events. The technology to build a better global forest monitoring network now exists. This white paper addresses the key structural components needed to achieve a novel meta-network. We propose to complement - rather than replace or unify - the existing heterogeneous infrastructure with standardized, quality-assured linking methods and interacting data processing centers to create an integrated forest monitoring network. These automated (research topic-dependent) linking methods in atmosphere, biosphere, and pedosphere play a key role in scaling site-specific results and processing them in a timely manner. To ensure broad participation from existing monitoring sites and to establish new sites, these linking methods must be as informative, reliable, affordable, and maintainable as possible, and should be supplemented by near real-time remote sensing data. The proposed novel meta-network will enable the detection of emergent patterns that would not be visible from isolated analyses of individual sites. In addition, the near real-time availability of data will facilitate predictions of current forest conditions (nowcasts), which are urgently needed for research and decision making in the face of rapid climate change. We call for international and interdisciplinary efforts in this direction.