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  • 1
    Call number: M 20.93507
    Type of Medium: Dissertations
    Pages: v, 153 Seiten , Illustrationen, Diagramme
    Language: English
    Location: Upper compact magazine
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-09-29
    Description: Megathrust earthquakes impose changes of differential stress and pore pressure in the lithosphere‐asthenosphere system that are transiently relaxed during the postseismic period primarily due to afterslip, viscoelastic and poroelastic processes. Especially during the early postseismic phase, however, the relative contribution of these processes to the observed surface deformation is unclear. To investigate this, we use geodetic data collected in the first 48 days following the 2010 Maule earthquake and a poro‐viscoelastic forward model combined with an afterslip inversion. This model approach fits the geodetic data 14% better than a pure elastic model. Particularly near the region of maximum coseismic slip, the predicted surface poroelastic uplift pattern explains well the observations. If poroelasticity is neglected, the spatial afterslip distribution is locally altered by up to ±40%. Moreover, we find that shallow crustal aftershocks mostly occur in regions of increased postseismic pore‐pressure changes, indicating that both processes might be mechanically coupled.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Large earthquakes modify the state of stress and pore pressure in the upper crust and mantle. These changes induce stress relaxation processes and pore pressure diffusion in the postseismic phase. The two main stress relaxation processes are postseismic slip along the rupture plane of the earthquake and viscoelastic deformation in the rock volume. These processes decay with time, but can sustain over several years or decades, respectively. The other process that results in volumetric crustal deformation is poroelasticity due to pore pressure diffusion, which has not been investigated in detail. Using postseismic surface displacement data acquired by radar satellites after the 2010 Maule earthquake, we show that poroelastic deformation may considerably affect the vertical component of the observed geodetic signal during the first months. Poroelastic deformation also has an impact on the estimation of the postseismic slip, which in turn affects the energy stored at the fault plane that is available for the next event. In addition, shallow aftershocks within the continental crust show a good, positive spatial correlation with regions of increased postseismic pore‐pressure changes, suggesting they are linked. These findings are thus important to assess the potential seismic hazard of the segment.
    Description: Key Points: A poro‐viscoelastic deformation model improves the geodetic data misfit by 14% compared to an elastic model that only accounts for afterslip. Poroelastic deformation mainly produces surface uplift and landward displacement patterns on the coastal forearc region. Neglecting poroelastic effects may locally alter the afterslip amplitude by up to ±40% near the region of maximum coseismic slip.
    Description: Helmholtz Association (亥姆霍兹联合会致力) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-06-20
    Description: The selection of ground motion models, and the representation of their epistemic uncertainty in the form of a logic tree, is one of the fundamental components of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis. A new ground motion model (GMM) logic tree has been developed for the 2020 European seismic hazard model, which develops upon recently compiled ground motion data sets in Europe. In contrast to previous European seismic hazard models, the new ground model logic tree is built around the scaled backbone concept. Epistemic uncertainties are represented as calibrations to a reference model and aim to characterise the potential distributions of median ground motions resulting from variability in source scaling and attenuation. These scaled backbone logic trees are developed and presented for shallow crustal seismic sources in Europe. Using the new European strong motion flatfile, and capitalising on recent perspectives in ground motion modelling in the scientific literature, a general and transferable procedure is presented for the construction of a backbone model and the regionalisation of epistemic uncertainty. This innovative approach forms a general framework for revising and updating the GMM logic tree at national and European scale as new strong motion data emerge in the future.
    Description: Horizon 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment ; Ground motion models ; Epistemic uncertainty ; Regionalisation
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-06-20
    Description: The simulation of broad-band (0.1 to 10 + Hz) ground-shaking over deep and spatially extended sedimentary basins at regional scales is challenging. We evaluate the ground-shaking of a potential M 6.5 earthquake in the southern Lower Rhine Embayment, one of the most important areas of earthquake recurrence north of the Alps, close to the city of Cologne in Germany. In a first step, information from geological investigations, seismic experiments and boreholes is combined for deriving a harmonized 3D velocity and attenuation model of the sedimentary layers. Three alternative approaches are then applied and compared to evaluate the impact of the sedimentary cover on ground-motion amplification. The first approach builds on existing response spectra ground-motion models whose amplification factors empirically take into account the influence of the sedimentary layers through a standard parameterization. In the second approach, site-specific 1D amplification functions are computed from the 3D basin model. Using a random vibration theory approach, we adjust the empirical response spectra predicted for soft rock conditions by local site amplification factors: amplifications and associated ground-motions are predicted both in the Fourier and in the response spectra domain. In the third approach, hybrid physics-based ground-motion simulations are used to predict time histories for soft rock conditions which are subsequently modified using the 1D site-specific amplification functions computed in method 2. For large distances and at short periods, the differences between the three approaches become less notable due to the significant attenuation of the sedimentary layers. At intermediate and long periods, generic empirical ground-motion models provide lower levels of amplification from sedimentary soils compared to methods taking into account site-specific 1D amplification functions. In the near-source region, hybrid physics-based ground-motions models illustrate the potentially large variability of ground-motion due to finite source effects.
    Description: Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum - GFZ (4217)
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; Ground-motion modelling ; Site effects ; Scenario ; Random vibration theory ; Hybrid modelling
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-06-20
    Description: Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.
    Description: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
    Description: Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum - GFZ (4217)
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; Ground motion models ; Stable craton ; Regionalisation ; Epistemic uncertainty ; Europe
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-06-20
    Description: To complement the new European Strong-Motion dataset and the ongoing efforts to update the seismic hazard and risk assessment of Europe and Mediterranean regions, we propose a new regionally adaptable ground-motion model (GMM). We present here the GMM capable of predicting the 5% damped RotD50 of PGA, PGV, and SA(T = 0.01 − 8 s) from shallow crustal earthquakes of 3 ≤ M W ≤ 7.4 occurring 0 〈 RJB ≤ 545 km away from sites with 90 ≤ Vs30 ≤ 3000 m s−1 or 0.001 ≤ slope ≤ 1 m m−1. The extended applicability derived from thousands of new recordings, however, comes with an apparent increase in the aleatory variability (σ). Firstly, anticipating contaminations and peculiarities in the dataset, we employed robust mixed-effect regressions to down weigh only, and not elimi nate entirely, the influence of outliers on the GMM median and σ. Secondly, we regionalised the attenuating path and localised the earthquake sources using the most recent models, to quantify region-specific anelastic attenuation and locality-specific earthquake characteristics as random-effects, respectively. Thirdly, using the mixed-effect variance–covariance structure, the GMM can be adapted to new regions, localities, and sites with specific datasets. Consequently, the σ is curtailed to a 7% increase at T 〈 0.3 s, and a sub stantial 15% decrease at T ≥ 0.3 s, compared to the RESORCE based partially non-ergodic GMM. We provide the 46 attenuating region-, 56 earthquake localities-, and 1829 site-spe cific adjustments, demonstrate their usage, and present their robustness through a 10-fold cross-validation exercise.
    Description: SIGMA2 consortium (EDF, CEA, PG&E, SwissNuclear,. Areva, CEZ, CRIEPI)
    Description: H2020 Research Infrastructures http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010666
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; Ground-motion model ; Response spectra ; Robust mixed-effects regression ; Regionally adaptable ; Seismic hazard and risk ; Europe
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: The construction of seismological community services for the European Plate Observing System Research Infrastructure (EPOS) is by now well under way. A significant number of services are already operational, largely based on those existing at established institutions or collaborations like ORFEUS, EMSC, AHEAD and EFEHR, and more are being added to be ready for internal validation by late 2017. In this presentation we focus on a number of issues related to the interaction of the community of users with the services provided by the seismological part of the EPOS research infrastructure. How users interact with a service (and how satisfied they are with this interaction) is viewed as one important component of the validation of a service within EPOS, and certainly is key to the uptake of a service and from that also it’s attributed value. Within EPOS Seismology, the following aspects of user interaction have already surfaced: a) User identification (and potential tracking) versus ease-of-access and openness Requesting users to identify themselves when accessing a service provides various advantages to providers and users (e.g. quantifying & qualifying the service use, customization of services and interfaces, handling access rights and quotas), but may impact the ease of access and also shy away users who don’t wish to be identified for whatever reason. b) Service availability versus cost There is a clear and prominent connection between the availability of a service, both regarding uptime and capacity, and its operational cost (IT systems and personnel), and it is often not clear where to draw the line (and based on which considerations). In connection to that, how to best utilize third-party IT infrastructures (either commercial or public), and what the long-term cost implications of that might be, is equally open. c) Licensing and attribution The issue of intellectual property and associated licensing policies for data, products and services is only recently gaining more attention in the community. Whether at all, and if yes then how to license, is still diversely discussed, while on national level more and more legislative requirements create boundary conditions that need to be respected. Attribution (of service use and of data/product origin) is only one related aspect, but of high importance the scientific world. In EPOS Seismology we attempt to find common approaches to address the above issues, also closely co-ordinated to the developments across the other EPOS domains. In this presentation we discuss the current strategies, potential solutions identified, and remaining open questions.
    Description: H2020 Project EPOS-IP, Cordis Project ID 676564
    Description: Published
    Description: Vienna, Austria
    Description: 4T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Keywords: seismology ; data dissemination ; 04. Solid Earth ; 04.06. Seismology ; 05.02. Data dissemination
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Abstract
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-10-06
    Description: Estimating earthquake occurrence rates from the accumulation rate of seismic moment is an established tool of seismic hazard analysis. We propose an alternative, fault-agnostic approach based on the conservation of energy: the Energy-Conserving Seismicity Framework (ENCOS). Working in energy space has the advantage that the radiated energy is a better predictor of the damage potential of earthquake waves than the seismic moment release. In a region, ENCOS balances the stationary power available to cause earthquakes with the long-term seismic energy release represented by the energy-frequency distribution's first moment. Accumulation and release are connected through the average seismic efficiency, by which we mean the fraction of released energy that is converted into seismic waves. Besides measuring earthquakes in energy, ENCOS differs from moment balance essentially in that the energy accumulation rate depends on the total stress in addition to the strain rate tensor. To validate ENCOS, we exemplarily model the energy-frequency distribution around Southern California. We estimate the energy accumulation rate due to tectonic loading assuming poroelasticity and hydrostasis. Using data from the World Stress Map and assuming the frictional limit to estimate the stress tensor, we obtain a power of 0.8 GW. The uncertainty range, 0.3–2.0 GW, originates mainly from the thickness of the seismogenic crust, the friction coefficient on preexisting faults, and models of Global Positioning System (GPS) derived strain rates. Based on a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, this power can be distributed over a range of energies consistent with historical earthquake rates and reasonable bounds on the seismic efficiency.
    Keywords: 551.22 ; conservation of energy ; linear poroelasticity ; seismicity model ; Southern California
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-24
    Description: The Engineering Strong-Motion (ESM) flatfile is a parametric table which contains verified and reliable metadata and intensity measures of manually processed waveforms included in the ESM database. The flatfile has been developed within the Seismology Thematic Core Service of EPOS-IP (European Plate Observing System Implementation Phase) and it is disseminated throughout a web portal (http://esm.mi.ingv.it/flatfile-2018/flatfile.php) for research and technical purposes. The adopted criteria for flatfile compilation aim to collect strong motion data and related metadata in a uniform, updated, traceable and quality-checked way to develop Ground Motion Models (GMMs) for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) and engineering applications. In this paper, we present the characteristics of ESM flatfile in terms of recording, event and station distributions, and we discuss the most relevant features of the Intensity Measures (IMs) of engineering interest included in the table. The dataset for flatfile compilation includes 23,014 recordings from 2179 earthquakes and 2080 stations from Europe and Middle-East. The events are characterized by magnitudes in the range 3.5–8.0 and refer to different tectonics regimes, such as shallow active crustal and subduction zones. Intensity measures include peak and integral parameters and duration of each waveform. The spectral amplitudes of the (5% damping) acceleration and displacement response are provided for 36 periods, in the interval 0.01–10 s, as well as the 103 amplitudes of the Fourier spectrum for the frequency range 0.04–50 Hz. Several statistics are shown with reference to the most significant metadata for GMMs calibrations, such as moment magnitude, focal depth, several distance metrics, style of faulting and parameters for site characterization. Furthermore, we also compare and explain the most relevant differences between the metadata of ESM flatfile with those provided by the previous flatfile derived in RESORCE (Reference Database for Seismic Ground Motion in Europe) project.
    Description: Published
    Description: 561–582
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2023-01-18
    Description: The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the most recent seismic hazard model of the Euro-Mediterranean region. It was built upon unified and homogenized datasets including earthquake catalogues, active faults, ground motion recordings and state-of-the-art modelling components, i.e. earthquake rates forecast and regionally variable ground motion characteristic models. ESHM20 replaces the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13), and it is the first regional model to provide two informative hazard maps for the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8). ESHM20 is also one of the key components of the first publicly available seismic risk model for Europe. This chapter provides a short summary of ESHM20 by highlighting its main features and describing some lessons learned during the model’s development.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3-25
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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