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  • 1
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    Partitioning the Ongoing Extension of the Central Apennines (Italy): Fault Slip Rates and Bulk Deformation Rates From Geodetic and Stress Data (2020)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Print ISSN: 2169-9313
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-9356
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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  • 2
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    Neotectonic deformation models for probabilistic seismic hazard: a study in the External Dinarides (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-05-05
    Description: In Europe, common input data types for seismic hazard evaluation include earthquake catalogues, seismic zonation models and ground motion models, all with well-constrained epistemic uncertainties. In contrast, neotectonic deformation models and their related uncertainties are rarely considered in earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard studies. In this study, for the first time in Europe, we developed a seismic hazard model based exclusively on active fault and geodynamic deformation models. We applied it to the External Dinarides, a slow-deforming fold-and-thrust belt in the Central Mediterranean. The two deformation models furnish consistent long-term earthquake rates above the M w 4.7 threshold on a latitude/longitude grid with 0.2° spacing. Results suggest that the use of deformation models is a valid alternative to empirical-statistical approaches in earthquake forecasting in slow-deforming regions of Europe. Furthermore, we show that the variability of different deformation models has a comparable effect on the peak ground motion acceleration uncertainty as do the ground motion prediction equations.
    Keywords: Geodynamics and Tectonics
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 3
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    The stress field in Europe: optimal orientations with confidence limits (2013)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-04-11
    Description: In this study, we modify and extend a data analysis technique to determine the stress orientations between data clusters by adding an additional constraint governing the probability algorithm. We apply this technique to produce a map of the maximum horizontal compressive stress ( S Hmax ) orientations in the greater European region (including Europe, Turkey and Mediterranean Africa). Using the World Stress Map data set release 2008, we obtain analytical probability distributions of the directional differences as a function of the angular distance, . We then multiply the probability distributions that are based on pre-averaged data within 〈 3° of the interpolation point and determine the maximum likelihood estimate of the S Hmax orientation. At a given distance, the probability of obtaining a particular discrepancy decreases exponentially with discrepancy. By exploiting this feature observed in the World Stress Map release 2008 data set, we increase the robustness of our S Hmax determinations. For a reliable determination of the most likely S Hmax orientation, we require that 90 per cent confidence limits be less than ±60° and a minimum of three clusters, which is achieved for 57 per cent of the study area, with uncertainties of less than ±30° for 19 per cent of the area. When the data density exceeds 0.8  x 10 –3 data km –2 , our method provides a means of reproducing significant local patterns in the stress field. Several mountain ranges in the Mediterranean display 90° changes in the S Hmax orientation from their crests (which often experience normal faulting) and their foothills (which often experience thrust faulting). This pattern constrains the tectonic stresses to a magnitude similar to that of the topographic stresses.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 4
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    A “Geodetic Gap” in the Calabrian Arc: Evidence for a Locked Subduction Megathrust? (2018)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-02-20
    Description: Subduction of old Ionian seafloor beneath the Calabrian Arc (southern Italy) is the geological process with the greatest mass flux in the central Mediterranean, yet its seismogenic behavior is largely obscured. No unambiguous evidence of subduction-related earthquakes exists in historical times, and local GPS velocities indicate very low strain rates. Nevertheless, the region hosted some of the deadliest normal-faulting earthquakes of the entire Mediterranean basin. We show that the low strain rates recorded in southern Calabria can be reconciled with the regional vigorous seismic moment release by assuming high interseismic coupling but low seismic coupling of the subduction interface. The alternative scenario of steadily creeping subduction cannot be ruled out but requires the historical seismicity record to be dismissed as unrepresentative. We refer to the peculiar spatial pattern of short-term strain rates in southern Calabria as a “geodetic gap” resulting from destructive interference between upper-plate extension and temporary compression due to locking along the subduction interface. Seismic hazard modelers must understand that within such gaps, the long-term seismic hazard is greater than that suggested by the low geodetic strain rates. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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  • 5
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    The stress field in Europe: optimal orientations with confidence limits (2013)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-02-19
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
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  • 6
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    Gravity Versus Tectonics: The Case of 2016 Amatrice and Norcia (Central Italy) Earthquakes Surface Coseismic Fractures (2019)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-04-01
    Print ISSN: 2169-9003
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-9011
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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  • 7
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    Lithospheric deformation in the Africa-Iberia plate boundary: Improved neotectonic modeling testing a basal-driven Alboran plate (2016)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-09-01
    Print ISSN: 2169-9313
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-9356
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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  • 8
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    Lithospheric deformation in the Africa-Iberia plate boundary: Improved neotectonic modeling testing a basal-driven Alboran plate (2016)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 121 (9). pp. 6566-6596.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: We present an improved neotectonic numerical model of the complex NW Africa-SW Eurasia plate boundary segment that runs from west to east along the Gloria Fault up to the northern Algerian margin. We model the surface velocity field and the ongoing lithospheric deformation using the most recent version of the thin-shell code SHELLS and updated lithospheric model and fault map of the region. To check the presence versus the absence of an independently driven Alboran domain, we develop two alternative plate models: one does not include an Alboran plate; another includes it and determines the basal shear tractions necessary to drive it with known velocities. We also compare two alternative sets of Africa-Eurasia velocity boundary conditions, corresponding to geodetic and geological-scale averages of plate motion. Finally, we perform an extensive parametric study of fault friction coefficient, trench resistance, and velocities imposed in Alboran nodes. The final run comprises 5240 experiments, each scored to geodetic velocities (estimated for 250 stations and here provided), stress direction data, and seismic strain rates. The model with the least discrepancy to the data includes the Alboran plate driven by a basal WSW directed shear traction, slightly oblique to the westward direction of Alboran motion. We provide estimates of long-term strain rates and slip rates for the modeled faults, which can be useful for further hazard studies. Our results support that a mechanism additional to the Africa-Eurasia convergence is required to drive the Alboran domain, which can be related to subduction processes occurring within the mantle.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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  • 9
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    Neotectonics and long-term seismicity in Europe and the Mediterranean region (2015)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-04
    Description: We present a neotectonic model of ongoing lithosphere deformation and a corresponding estimate of long-term shallow seismicity across the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, including the eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean region, and continental Europe. GPS and stress data are absent or inadequate for the part of the study area covered by water. Thus, we opt for a dynamic model based on the stress-equilibrium equation; this approach allows us to estimate the long-term behavior of the lithosphere (given certain assumptions about its structure and physics) for both land and sea areas. We first update the existing plate model by adding five quasi-rigid plates (the Ionian Sea, Adria, Northern Greece, Central Greece, and Marmara) to constrain the deformation pattern of the study area. We use the most recent datasets to estimate the lithospheric structure. The models are evaluated in comparison with updated datasets of geodetic velocities and the most compressive horizontal principal stress azimuths. We find that the side and basal strengths drive the present-day motion of the Adria and Aegean Sea plates, whereas lithostatic pressure plays a key role in driving Anatolia. These findings provide new insights into the neotectonics of the greater Mediterranean region. Finally, the preferred model is used to estimate long-term shallow seismicity, which we retrospectively test against historical seismicity. As an alternative to reliance on incomplete geologic data or historical seismic catalogs, these neotectonic models help to forecast long-term seismicity, although requiring additional tuning before seismicity rates are used for seismic hazard purposes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5311–5342
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tectonics ; Earthquake rates ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.03. Heat flow ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
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    Present-day stress-field modelling of southern Italy constrained by stress and GPS data (2009)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-16
    Description: The present-day tectonic setting of the Italian peninsula is very complex and involves competing geodynamic processes. In this context, southern peninsular Italy is characterised by extension along the Apenninic belt and in the Tyrrhenian margin and by transpression in the Apulia-Gargano region. The extension is well defined by means of geological, seismological, and contemporary stress data. For the latter only few data are available in the Apulia-Gargano region, leaving the state of stress in that area unresolved. Here we develop a finite-element model of the southern Italian region in order to predict the contemporary stress field. Our model predictions are constrained by model-independent observations of the orientation of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax), the tectonic regime, and the horizontal velocities derived from GPS observations. We performed a blind test with 31 newly acquired SHmax orientations in the Southern Apennines. These new data come from the analysis of borehole breakouts performed in 46 deep oil exploration wells ranging in depth from 1300 to 5500 m. The model results agree with the stress data that define a prevailing NW-SE SHmax orientation along the Apenninic belt and foredeep and thus are capable to predict the stress field where no stress information is available. We first analyse how much model predictions, based on older data, deviate from present-day stress data and then recalibrate the models based on our new stress data, giving insight into the resolution of both models and data. In the studied region, which is affected by low deformation rates, we find that geodetic data alone cannot resolve such low levels of deformation due to the high relative measurement errors. We conclude that both GPS and stress data are required to constrain model results.
    Description: This research was supported by the Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri - Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC) through the INGV-DPC project S1.
    Description: Published
    Description: 193-204
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Neotectonics ; Borehole-breakouts ; Southern Apennines ; Finite-element models ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.08. Theory and Models ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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