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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-03-20
    Description: The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis is the latest global reanalysis dataset of atmospheric composition produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), consisting of three-dimensional time-consistent atmospheric composition fields, including aerosols and chemical species. The dataset currently covers the period 2003–2016 and will be extended in the future by adding 1 year each year. A reanalysis for greenhouse gases is being produced separately. The CAMS reanalysis builds on the experience gained during the production of the earlier Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis and CAMS interim reanalysis. Satellite retrievals of total column CO; tropospheric column NO2; aerosol optical depth (AOD); and total column, partial column and profile ozone retrievals were assimilated for the CAMS reanalysis with ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System. The new reanalysis has an increased horizontal resolution of about 80 km and provides more chemical species at a better temporal resolution (3-hourly analysis fields, 3-hourly forecast fields and hourly surface forecast fields) than the previously produced CAMS interim reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis has smaller biases compared with most of the independent ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and aerosol optical depth observations used for validation in this paper than the previous two reanalyses and is much improved and more consistent in time, especially compared to the MACC reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis is a dataset that can be used to compute climatologies, study trends, evaluate models, benchmark other reanalyses or serve as boundary conditions for regional models for past periods.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 2
  • 3
    Publication Date: 2015-02-01
    Description: The disadvantage of the majority of data assimilation schemes is the assumption that the conditional probability density function of the state of the system given the observations [posterior probability density function (PDF)] is distributed either locally or globally as a Gaussian. The advantage, however, is that through various different mechanisms they ensure initial conditions that are predominantly in linear balance and therefore spurious gravity wave generation is suppressed. The equivalent-weights particle filter is a data assimilation scheme that allows for a representation of a potentially multimodal posterior PDF. It does this via proposal densities that lead to extra terms being added to the model equations and means the advantage of the traditional data assimilation schemes, in generating predominantly balanced initial conditions, is no longer guaranteed. This paper looks in detail at the impact the equivalent-weights particle filter has on dynamical balance and gravity wave generation in a primitive equation model. The primary conclusions are that (i) provided the model error covariance matrix imposes geostrophic balance, then each additional term required by the equivalent-weights particle filter is also geostrophically balanced; (ii) the relaxation term required to ensure the particles are in the locality of the observations has little effect on gravity waves and actually induces a reduction in gravity wave energy if sufficiently large; and (iii) the equivalent-weights term, which leads to the particles having equivalent significance in the posterior PDF, produces a change in gravity wave energy comparable to the stochastic model error. Thus, the scheme does not produce significant spurious gravity wave energy and so has potential for application in real high-dimensional geophysical applications.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-11-07
    Description: This article describes the IFS-AER aerosol module used operationally in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) cycle 45R1, operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the framework of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS). We describe the different parameterizations for aerosol sources, sinks, and its chemical production in IFS-AER, as well as how the aerosols are integrated in the larger atmospheric composition forecasting system. The focus is on the entire 45R1 code base, including some components that are not used operationally, in which case this will be clearly specified. This paper is an update to the Morcrette et al. (2009) article that described aerosol forecasts at the ECMWF using cycle 32R2 of the IFS. Between cycles 32R2 and 45R1, a number of source and sink processes have been reviewed and/or added, notably increasing the complexity of IFS-AER. A greater integration with the tropospheric chemistry scheme of the IFS has been achieved for the sulfur cycle and for nitrate production. Two new species, nitrate and ammonium, have also been included in the forecasting system. Global budgets and aerosol optical depth (AOD) fields are shown, as is an evaluation of the simulated particulate matter (PM) and AOD against observations, showing an increase in skill from cycle 40R2, used in the CAMS interim ReAnalysis (CAMSiRA), to cycle 45R1.
    Print ISSN: 1991-959X
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-9603
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis is the latest global reanalysis data set of atmospheric composition produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), consisting of 3-dimensional time-consistent atmospheric composition fields, including aerosols and chemical species. The dataset currently covers the period 2003–2016 and will be extended in the future by adding one year each year. A reanalysis for greenhouse gases is being produced separately. The CAMS reanalysis builds on the experience gained during the production of the earlier Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis and CAMS interim reanalysis. Satellite retrievals of total column CO, tropospheric column NO2, aerosol optical depth and total column, partial column and profile ozone retrievals were assimilated for the CAMS reanalysis with ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System. The new reanalysis has an increased horizontal resolution of about 80 km and provides more chemical species at a better temporal resolution (3-hourly analysis fields, 3-hourly forecast fields and hourly surface forecast fields) than the previously produced CAMS interim reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis has smaller biases compared to independent ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and aerosol optical depth observations than the previous two reanalyses and is much improved and more consistent in time, especially compared to the MACC reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis is a dataset that can be used to compute climatologies, study trends, evaluate models, benchmark other reanalyses or serve as boundary conditions for regional models for past periods.
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7375
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2011-07-22
    Print ISSN: 0886-6236
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9224
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2019-06-13
    Description: This article describes the IFS-AER aerosol module used operationally in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) cycle 45R1, operated by the European Centre for Medium RangeWeather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the framework of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS). We describe the different parameterizations for aerosol sources, sinks and its chemical production in IFS-AER, as well as how the aerosols are integrated in the larger atmospheric composition forecasting system. The focus is on the entire 45R1 code-base, including some components that are not used operationally, in which case this will be clearly specified. This paper is an update to the Morcrette et al. (2009) article that described aerosol forecasts at ECMWF, using the cycle 32R2 of the IFS. Between cycles 32R2 and 45R1, a number of source and sink processes have been reviewed and/or added, increasing notably the complexity of IFS-AER. A greater integration with the tropospheric chemistry scheme of the IFS has been achieved, for the sulphur cycle as well as for nitrate production. Two new species, nitrate and ammonium, have also been included in the forecasting system. Global budgets and aerosol optical depth (AOD) fields are shown, as well as an evaluation of the simulated Particulate Matter (PM) and AOD against observations, showing an increase in skill from cycle 40R2, used in the CAMS interim Reanalysis (CAMSiRA), to cycle 45R1.
    Print ISSN: 1991-9611
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-962X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2013-06-01
    Print ISSN: 0098-3004
    Electronic ISSN: 1873-7803
    Topics: Geosciences , Computer Science
    Published by Elsevier
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  • 9
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s1-s10, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-08
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
    Format: application/pdf
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