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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2016-12-16
    Description: Zonal-mean storm-track shifts in response to perturbations in climate occur even in idealized simulations of dry atmospheres with axisymmetric forcing. Nonetheless, a generally accepted theory of the mechanisms controlling the storm-track shifts is still lacking. Here, mean available potential energy (MAPE), a general measure of baroclinicity that is proportional to the square of the Eady growth rate, is used to understand storm-track shifts. It is demonstrated that, in dry atmospheres, the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in a storm track is linearly related to the mean available potential energy, relative to a local reference state, and that maxima of the two are generally collocated in latitude. Changes in MAPE with climate are then decomposed into components. It is shown that in simulations of dry atmospheres, changes in the latitude of maximum MAPE are dominated by changes in near-surface meridional temperature gradients. By contrast, changes in the magnitude of MAPE are primarily determined by changes in static stability and in the depth of the troposphere. A theory of storm-track shifts may build upon these findings and primarily needs to explain changes in near-surface meridional temperature gradients. The terminus of the Hadley circulation often shifts in tandem with storm tracks and is hypothesized to play an important role in triggering the storm-track shifts seen in this idealized dry context, especially in simulations where increases only in the convective static stability in the deep tropics suffice to shift storm tracks poleward.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2016-09-23
    Description: The ITCZ lies at the ascending branch of the tropical meridional overturning circulation, where near-surface meridional mass fluxes vanish. Near the ITCZ, column-integrated energy fluxes vanish, forming an atmospheric energy flux equator (EFE). This paper extends existing approximations relating the ITCZ position and EFE to the atmospheric energy budget by allowing for zonal variations. The resulting relations are tested using reanalysis data for 1979–2014. The zonally varying EFE is found as the latitude where the meridional component of the divergent atmospheric energy transport (AET) vanishes. A Taylor expansion of the AET around the equator relates the ITCZ position to derivatives of the AET. To a first order, the ITCZ position is proportional to the divergent AET across the equator; it is inversely proportional to the local atmospheric net energy input (NEI) that consists of the net energy fluxes at the surface, at the top of the atmosphere, and zonally across longitudes. The first-order approximation captures the seasonal migrations of the ITCZ in the African, Asian, and Atlantic sectors. In the eastern Pacific, a third-order approximation captures the bifurcation from single- to double-ITCZ states that occurs during boreal spring. In contrast to linear EFE theory, during boreal winter in the eastern Pacific, northward cross-equatorial AET goes along with an ITCZ north of the equator. EFE and ITCZ variations driven by ENSO are characterized by an equatorward (poleward) shift in the Pacific during El Niño (La Niña) episodes, which are associated with variations in equatorial ocean energy uptake.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2016-09-20
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2016-04-12
    Description: The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) migrates north–south on seasonal and longer time scales. Previous studies have shown that the zonal-mean ITCZ displacement off the equator is negatively correlated with the energy flux across the equator; when the ITCZ lies in the Northern Hemisphere, energy flows southward across the equator, and vice versa. The hemisphere that exports energy across the equator is the hemisphere with more net energy input, and it is usually the warmer hemisphere. But states with a double ITCZ straddling the equator also occur, for example, seasonally over the eastern Pacific and frequently in climate models. Here it is shown how the ITCZ position is connected to the energy balance near the equator in a broad range of circumstances, including states with single and double ITCZs. Taylor expansion of the variation of the meridional energy flux around the equator leads to the conclusion that for large positive net energy input into the equatorial atmosphere, the ITCZ position depends linearly on the cross-equatorial energy flux. For small positive equatorial net energy input, the dependence of the ITCZ position on the cross-equatorial energy flux weakens to the third root. When the equatorial net energy input or its curvature become negative, a bifurcation to double-ITCZ states occurs. Simulations with an idealized aquaplanet general circulation model (GCM) confirm the quantitative adequacy of these relations. The results provide a framework for assessing and understanding causes of common climate model biases and for interpreting tropical precipitation changes, such as those evident in records of climates of the past.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2016-07-28
    Description: Physical uncertainties in global-warming projections are dominated by uncertainties about how the fraction of incoming shortwave radiation that clouds reflect will change as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. Differences in the shortwave reflection by low clouds over tropical oceans alone account for more than half of the variance of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) among climate models, which ranges from 2.1 to 4.7 K. Space-based measurements now provide an opportunity to assess how well models reproduce temporal variations of this shortwave reflection on seasonal to interannual time scales. Here such space-based measurements are used to show that shortwave reflection by low clouds over tropical oceans decreases robustly when the underlying surface warms, for example, by −(0.96 ± 0.22)% K−1 (90% confidence level) for deseasonalized variations. Additionally, the temporal covariance of low-cloud reflection with temperature in historical simulations with current climate models correlates strongly (r = −0.67) with the models’ ECS. Therefore, measurements of temporal low-cloud variations can be used to constrain ECS estimates based on climate models. An information-theoretic weighting of climate models by how well they reproduce the measured deseasonalized covariance of shortwave cloud reflection with temperature yields a most likely ECS estimate around 4.0 K; an ECS below 2.3 K becomes very unlikely (90% confidence).
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2016-04-26
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2016-04-19
    Description: In the zonal mean, the ITCZ lies at the foot of the ascending branch of the tropical mean meridional circulation, close to where the near-surface meridional mass flux vanishes. The ITCZ also lies near the energy flux equator (EFE), where the column-integrated meridional energy flux vanishes. This latter observation makes it possible to relate the ITCZ position to the energy balance, specifically the atmospheric net energy input near the equator and the cross-equatorial energy flux. Here the validity of the resulting relations between the ITCZ position and energetic quantities is examined with reanalysis data for the years 1979–2014. In the reanalysis data, the EFE and ITCZ position indeed covary on time scales of seasons and longer. Consistent with theory, the ITCZ position is proportional to the cross-equatorial atmospheric energy flux and inversely proportional to atmospheric net energy input at the equator. Variations of the cross-equatorial energy flux dominate seasonal variations of the ITCZ position. By contrast, variations of the equatorial net energy input, driven by ocean energy uptake variations, dominate interannual variations of the ITCZ position (e.g., those associated with ENSO).
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2016-04-19
    Description: Stationary and low-frequency Rossby waves are the primary drivers of extratropical weather variations on monthly and longer time scales. They take the form of persistent highs and lows, which, for example, shape subtropical dry zones and guide extratropical storms. More generally, stationary-eddy circulations, including zonally anomalous tropical overturning circulations, set up large zonal variations in net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation, P − E). This paper investigates the response of stationary eddies and the zonally asymmetric hydrological cycle to global warming in an idealized GCM, simulating a wide range of climates by varying longwave absorption. The stationary eddies are forced by two idealized zonal asymmetries: a midlatitude Gaussian mountain and an equatorial ocean heat source. Associated with changes in stationary eddies are changes in the zonal variation of the hydrological cycle. Particularly in the subtropics, these simulations show a nearly constant or decreasing amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle in climates warmer than modern despite the wet gets wetter, dry gets drier effect associated with increasing atmospheric moisture content. An approximation for zonally anomalous P − E, based on zonal-mean surface specific humidity and stationary-eddy vertical motion, disentangles the roles of thermodynamic and dynamic changes. The approximation shows that changes in the zonally asymmetric hydrological cycle are predominantly controlled by changes in lower-tropospheric vertical motion in stationary eddies.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2016-06-14
    Description: The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) has been the focus of considerable research in recent years, with much of this work concerned with how the latitude of maximum tropical precipitation responds to natural climate variability and to radiative forcing. The width of the ITCZ, however, has received little attention despite its importance for regional climate and for understanding the general circulation of the atmosphere. This paper investigates the ITCZ width in simulations with an idealized general circulation model over a wide range of climates. The ITCZ, defined as the tropical region where there is time-mean ascent, displays rich behavior as the climate varies, widening with warming in cool climates, narrowing in temperate climates, and maintaining a relatively constant width in hot climates. The mass and energy budgets of the Hadley circulation are used to derive expressions for the area of the ITCZ relative to the area of the neighboring descent region, and for the sensitivity of the ITCZ area to changes in climate. The ITCZ width depends primarily on four quantities: the net energy input to the tropical atmosphere, the advection of moist static energy by the Hadley circulation, the transport of moist static energy by transient eddies, and the gross moist stability. Different processes are important for the ITCZ width in different climates, with changes in gross moist stability generally having a weak influence relative to the other processes. The results are likely to be useful for analyzing the ITCZ width in complex climate models and for understanding past and future climate change in the tropics.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2017-11-01
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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