ISSN:
1573-0840
Keywords:
Seismic hazard
;
Jordan
;
earthquakes
;
uncertainty
;
Bayesian method
;
intensity attenuation
;
expert opinion
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
,
Geography
,
Geosciences
Notes:
Abstract Probabilistic methods are used to quantify the seismic hazard in Jordan and neighbouring regions. The hazard model incorporates the uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters and the attenuation equation. Seven seismic sources are identified in the region and the seismicity parameters of these sources are estimated by making use of all the available information. Seismic hazard computations and the selection of peak ground acceleration and modified Mercalli intensity values at the nodes of a 25 × 25 km mesh covering the region under study are carried out by two different computer programs. The results of the study are presented through a set of seismic hazard maps displaying iso-acceleration and iso-intensity contours corresponding to specified return periods. The first set of maps is derived based on the seismicity data assessed in this study and display our ‘best’ estimate of the seismic hazard for Jordan and the neighbouring areas. The second set of maps which shows the ‘alternative’ estimate of seismic hazard is based solely on the seismicity parameters reported by other researchers. The third set of maps, called the ‘Bayesian’ estimate of seismic hazard, reflects the influence of expert opinion involving more conservative assumptions regarding the Red Sea and Araba faults.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00129509
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