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  • 1
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    Near-field propagation of tsunamis from megathrust earthquakes (2007)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We investigate controls on tsunami generation and propagation in the near-field of great megathrust earthquakes using a series of numerical simulations of subduction and tsunamigenesis on the Sumatran forearc. The Sunda megathrust here is advanced in its seismic cycle and may be ready for another great earthquake. We calculate the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave heights for about 100 complex earthquake ruptures whose synthesis was informed by reference to geodetic and stress accumulation studies. Remarkably, results show that, for any near-field location: (1) the timing of tsunami inundation is independent of slipdistribution on the earthquake or even of its magnitude, and (2) the maximum wave height is directly proportional to the vertical coseismic displacement experienced at that location. Both observations are explained by the dominance of long wavelength crustal flexure in near-field tsunamigenesis. The results show, for the first time, that a single estimate of vertical coseismic displacement might provide a reliable short-term forecast of the maximum height of tsunami waves.
    Description: Published
    Description: L14316
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Sumatra ; earthquake ; tsunami ; megathrust ; hazard ; forecasting ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Tsunami threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of Sumatra (2007)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Several independent indicators imply a high probability of a great (MN8) earthquake rupture of the subduction megathrust 14 under the Mentawai Islands of West Sumatra. The human consequences of such an event depend crucially on its tsunamigenic 15 potential, which in turn depends on unpredictable details of slip distribution on the megathrust and how resulting seafloor 16 movements and the propagating tsunami waves interact with bathymetry. Here we address the forward problem by modelling about 17 1000 possible complex earthquake ruptures and calculating the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave height distributions that 18 would result from the most likely 100 or so, as judged by reference to paleogeodetic data. Additionally we carry out a systematic 19 study of the importance of the location of maximum slip with respect to the morphology of the fore-arc complex. Our results 20 indicate a generally smaller regional tsunami hazard than was realised in Aceh during the December 2004 event, though more than 21 20% of simulations result in tsunami wave heights of more than 5 m for the southern Sumatran cities of Padang and Bengkulu. The 22 extreme events in these simulations produce results which are consistent with recent deterministic studies. The study confirms the 23 sensitivity of predicted wave heights to the distribution of slip even for events with similar moment and reproduces Plafker's rule of 24 thumb. Additionally we show that the maximum wave height observed at a single location scales with the magnitude though data 25 for all magnitudes exhibit extreme variability. Finally, we show that for any coastal location in the near field of the earthquake, 26 despite the complexity of the earthquake rupture simulations and the large range of magnitudes modelled, the timing of inundation 27 is constant to first order and the maximum height of the modelled waves is directly proportional to the vertical coseismic 28 displacement experienced at that point. These results may assist in developing tsunami preparedness strategies around the Indian 29 Ocean and in particular along the coasts of western Sumatra.
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: tsunami ; Sumatra ; megathrust ; earthquake ; hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: manuscript
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  • 3
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    Tsunami threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of Sumatra (2008)
    Elsevier B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Several independent indicators imply a high probability of a great (M 〉 8) earthquake rupture of the subduction megathrust under the Mentawai Islands of West Sumatra. The human consequences of such an event depend crucially on its tsunamigenic potential, which in turn depends on unpredictable details of slip distribution on the megathrust and how resulting seafloor movements and the propagating tsunami waves interact with bathymetry. Here we address the forward problem by modelling about 1000 possible complex earthquake ruptures and calculating the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave height distributions that would result from the most likely 100 or so, as judged by reference to paleogeodetic data. Additionally we carry out a systematic study of the importance of the location of maximum slip with respect to the morphology of the fore-arc complex. Our results indicate a generally smaller regional tsunami hazard than was realised in Aceh during the December 2004 event, though more than 20% of simulations result in tsunami wave heights of more than 5 m for the southern Sumatran cities of Padang and Bengkulu. The extreme events in these simulations produce results which are consistent with recent deterministic studies. The study confirms the sensitivity of predicted wave heights to the distribution of slip even for events with similar moment and reproduces Plafker's rule of thumb. Additionally we show that the maximum wave height observed at a single location scales with the magnitude though data for all magnitudes exhibit extreme variability. Finally, we show that for any coastal location in the near field of the earthquake, despite the complexity of the earthquake rupture simulations and the large range of magnitudes modelled, the timing of inundation is constant to first order and the maximum height of the modelled waves is directly proportional to the vertical coseismic displacement experienced at that point. These results may assist in developing tsunami preparedness strategies around the Indian Ocean and in particular along the coasts of western Sumatra.
    Description: Published
    Description: 61-81
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: tsunami ; Sumatra ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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