ALBERT

Description: Exoplanet hunting efforts have revealed the prevalence of exotic worlds with diverse properties, including Earth-sized bodies, which has fueled our endeavor to search for life beyond the Solar System. Accumulating experiences in astrophysical, chemical, and climatological characterization of uninhabitable planets are paving the way to characterization of potentially habitable planets. In this paper, we review our possibilities and limitations in characterizing temperate terrestrial planets with future observational capabilities through the 2030s and beyond, as a basis of a broad range of discussions on how to advance "astrobiology" with exoplanets. We discuss the observability of not only the proposed biosignature candidates themselves but also of more general planetary properties that provide circumstantial evidence, since the evaluation of any biosignature candidate relies on its context. Characterization of temperate Earth-sized planets in the coming years will focus on those around nearby late-type stars. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and later 30-meter-class ground-based telescopes will empower their chemical investigations. Spectroscopic studies of potentially habitable planets around solar-type stars will likely require a designated spacecraft mission for direct imaging, leveraging technologies that are already being developed and tested as part of the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission. Successful initial characterization of a few nearby targets will be an important touchstone toward a more detailed scrutiny and a larger survey that are envisioned beyond 2030. The broad outlook this paper presents may help develop new observational techniques to detect relevant features as well as frameworks to diagnose planets based on the observables.

Description: The field of exoplanetary science has seen a dramatic improvement in sensitivity to terrestrial planets over recent years. Such discoveries have been a key feature of results from the Kepler mission which utilizes the transit method to determine the size of the planet. These discoveries have resulted in a corresponding interest in the topic of the Habitable Zone and the search for potential Earth analogs. Within the solar system, there is a clear dichotomy between Venus and Earth in terms of atmospheric evolution, likely the result of the large difference (approximately a factor of two) in incident flux from the Sun. Since Venus is 95% of the Earth's radius in size, it is impossible to distinguish between these two planets based only on size. In this Letter we discuss planetary insolation in the context of atmospheric erosion and runaway greenhouse limits for planets similar to Venus. We define a "Venus Zone" in which the planet is more likely to be a Venus analog rather than an Earth analog. We identify 43 potential Venus analogs with an occurrence rate () of 0.32 (+0.05/-0.07) and 0.45 (+0.06/-0.09) for M dwarfs and GK dwarfs, respectively.

Description: The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere may be a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.