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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 19 (2004): PA1024, doi:10.1029/2003PA000903.
    Description: We apply a shock-capturing numerical model based on the single-layer shallow water equations to an idealized geometry of the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara in order to test the implications of a suggested sudden Black Sea infill 8400 years ago. The model resolves the two-dimensional flow upstream and downstream of the hydraulic jump provoked by the cascade of water from the Sea of Marmara into the Black Sea, which would occur during a sudden Black Sea infill. The modeled flow downstream of the hydraulic jump in the Black Sea would consist of a jet that is in part constrained by bathymetric contours. Guided by the Bosporus Canyon, the modeled jet reaches depths of up to 2000 m and could explain the origin of the sediment waves observed at this depth. At a late stage of the infill the modeled jet is attached to the coast and might account for the course of a submerged channel at the mouth of the Bosporus. The preservation of continuous barrier-washover-lagoonal fill systems occurring on the Black Sea shelf is, however, not easily reconcilable with the large flows over the southwest Black Sea shelf predicted by the model. Intensified flow in the upstream basin (Sea of Marmara) is restricted to the immediate vicinity of the Bosporus, suggesting that a sudden reconnection need not have disturbed sediments in the wider Sea of Marmara.
    Description: L. Pratt and K. Helfrich were supported under O.N.R. grant N00014-010100167 and N.S.F. grant OCE-0132903. L. Giosan was supported by a postdoctoral scholarship grant from CICOR (a Joint Institute of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and NOAA).
    Keywords: Black Sea ; Flood hypothesis ; Dam break
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (2004): C08002, doi:10.1029/2003JC002148.
    Description: This study establishes a series of tests to examine the relative utility of nonlinear time series analysis for oceanic data. The performance of linear autoregressive models and nonlinear delay coordinate embedding methods are compared for three numerical and two observational data sets. The two observational data sets are (1) an hourly near-bottom pressure time series from the South Atlantic Bight and (2) an hourly current-meter time series from the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB). The nonlinear methods give significantly better predictions than the linear methods when the underlying dynamics have low dimensionality. When the dimensionality is high, the utility of nonlinear methods is limited by the length and quality of the time series. On the application side we mainly focus on the MAB data set. We find that the slope velocities are much less predictable than shelf velocities. Predictability on the slope after several hours is no better than the statistical mean. On the other hand, significant predictability of shelf velocities can be obtained for up to at least 12 hours.
    Description: This research was supported by Office of Naval Research grants N00014-01-1-0260, N00014-92-J-1481, and N10014-99-1-0258.
    Keywords: Predictability ; Delay coordinate embedding ; Shelf break
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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