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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 9942–9951, doi:10.1002/2015GL065948.
    Description: Extreme rainfall conditions in Australia during the 2010/2011 La Niña resulted in devastating floods claiming 35 lives, causing billions of dollars in damages, and far-reaching impacts on global climate, including a significant drop in global sea level and record terrestrial carbon uptake. Northeast Australian 2010/2011 rainfall was 84% above average, unusual even for a strong La Niña, and soil moisture conditions were unprecedented since 1950. Here we demonstrate that the warmer background state increased the likelihood of the extreme rainfall response. Using atmospheric general circulation model experiments with 2010/2011 ocean conditions with and without long-term warming, we identify the mechanisms that increase the likelihood of extreme rainfall: additional ocean warming enhanced onshore moisture transport onto Australia and ascent and precipitation over the northeast. Our results highlight the role of long-term ocean warming for modifying rain-producing atmospheric circulation conditions, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation for Australia during future La Niña events.
    Description: Australian Research Council (ARC); ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; ARC Laureate Fellowship program; Penzance and John P. Chase Memorial Endowed Funds; Ocean Climate Change Institute at WHOI
    Description: 2016-05-19
    Keywords: Ocean warming ; Precipitation;extremes ; Australia ; Attribution ; La Nina
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 47(22), (2020): e2020GL088692, doi:10.1029/2020GL088692.
    Description: Rapid increases in upper 700‐m Indian Ocean heat content (IOHC) since the 2000s have focused attention on its role during the recent global surface warming hiatus. Here, we use ocean model simulations to assess distinct multidecadal IOHC variations since the 1960s and explore the relative contributions from wind stress and buoyancy forcing regionally and with depth. Multidecadal wind forcing counteracted IOHC increases due to buoyancy forcing from the 1960s to the 1990s. Wind and buoyancy forcing contribute positively since the mid‐2000s, accounting for the drastic IOHC change. Distinct timing and structure of upper ocean temperature changes in the eastern and western Indian Ocean are linked to the pathway how multidecadal wind forcing associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is transmitted and affects IOHC through local and remote winds. Progressive shoaling of the equatorial thermocline—of importance for low‐frequency variations in Indian Ocean Dipole occurrence—appears to be dominated by multidecadal variations in wind forcing.
    Description: This work was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (CCU and SR), The Investment in Science Fund given primarily by WHOI Trustee and Corporation Members (CCU), James E. and Barbara V. Moltz Fellowship for climate‐related research (CCU), the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023; CCU and MHE), ARC DP150101331 (CCU and MHE), and PW was supported through grant IndoArchipel from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) as part of the Special Priority Program (SPP)‐1889”Regional Sea Level Change and Society” (SeaLevel).
    Description: 2021-04-26
    Keywords: Decadal variability ; Hiatus ; Indian Ocean ; Ocean heat content ; Ocean models ; Pacific Ocean
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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