ALBERT

Description: The threat for aircraft icing in clouds is a significant hazard that routinely impacts aviation operations. Accurate diagnoses and forecasts of aircraft icing conditions requires identifying the location and vertical distribution of clouds with super-cooled liquid water (SLW) droplets, as well as the characteristics of the droplet size distribution. Traditional forecasting methods rely on guidance from numerical models and conventional observations, neither of which currently resolve cloud properties adequately on the optimal scales needed for aviation. Satellite imagers provide measurements over large areas with high spatial resolution that can be interpreted to identify the locations and characteristics of clouds, including features associated with adverse weather and storms. This paper describes new techniques for interpreting cloud products derived from satellite data to infer the flight icing threat to aircraft. For unobscured low clouds, the icing threat is determined using empirical relationships developed from correlations between satellite imager retrievals of liquid water path and droplet size with icing conditions reported by pilots (PIREPS). For deep ice over water cloud systems, ice and liquid water content (IWC and LWC) profiles are derived by using the imager cloud properties to constrain climatological information on cloud vertical structure and water phase obtained apriori from radar and lidar observations, and from cloud model analyses. Retrievals of the SLW content embedded within overlapping clouds are mapped to the icing threat using guidance from an airfoil modeling study. Compared to PIREPS and ground-based icing remote sensing datasets, the satellite icing detection and intensity accuracies are approximately 90% and 70%, respectively, and found to be similar for both low level and deep ice over water cloud systems. The satellite-derived icing boundaries capture the reported altitudes over 90% of the time. Satellite analyses corresponding to the time and location of several recent aviation accidents and with icing PIREPS are also presented that reveal skill in identifying severe icing conditions. These results demonstrate the utility of satellite cloud retrievals for quantitatively diagnosing the potential for icing conditions on temporal and spatial scales that should be useful to the aviation community. Plans are being developed to deliver these new satellite products to the GOES-R Proving Ground in the near future so that they can be evaluated in operational applications.

Description: The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), launched on 11 February 2015, is a satellite positioned near the Lagrange-1 (L1) point, carrying several instruments that monitor space weather, and Earth-view sensors designed for climate studies. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard DSCOVR continuously views the sun-illuminated portion of the Earth with spectral coverage in the UV, VIS, and NIR bands. Although the EPIC instrument does not have any onboard calibration abilities, its constant view of the sunlit Earth disk provides a unique opportunity for simultaneous viewing with several other satellite instruments. This arrangement allows the EPIC sensor to be inter-calibrated using other well-characterized satellite instrument reference standards. Two such instruments with onboard calibration are MODIS, flown on Aqua and Terra, and VIIRS, onboard Suomi-NPP. The MODIS and VIIRS reference calibrations will be transferred to the EPIC instrument using both all-sky ocean and deep convective clouds (DCC) ray-matched EPIC and MODIS/VIIRS radiance pairs. An automated navigation correction routine was developed to more accurately align the EPIC and MODIS/VIIRS granules. The automated navigation correction routine dramatically reduced the uncertainty of the resulting calibration gain based on the EPIC and MODIS/VIIRS radiance pairs. The SCIAMACHY-based spectral band adjustment factors (SBAF) applied to the MODIS/ VIIRS radiances were found to successfully adjust the reference radiances to the spectral response of the specific EPIC channel for over-lapping spectral channels. The SBAF was also found to be effective for the non-overlapping EPIC channel 10. Lastly, both ray-matching techniques found no discernable trends for EPIC channel 7 over the year of publically released EPIC data.

Description: Cloud properties retrieved from satellite data are used to diagnose aircraft icing threat in single layer and multilayered ice-over-liquid clouds. The algorithms are being applied in real time to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data over the CONUS with multilayer data available over the eastern CONUS. METEOSAT data are also used to retrieve icing conditions over western Europe. The icing algorithm s methodology and validation are discussed along with future enhancements and plans. The icing risk product is available in image and digital formats on NASA Langley s Cloud and Radiation Products web site, http://wwwangler. larc.nasa.gov.

Description: A new air traffic database over the contiguous United States of America (USA) has been developed from a commercially available real-time product for 2001-2003 for all non-military flights above 25,000 ft. Both individual flight tracks and gridded spatially integrated flight legs are available. On average, approximately 24,000 high-altitude flights were recorded each day. The diurnal cycle of air traffic over the USA is characterized by a broad daytime maximum with a 0130-LT minimum and a mean day-night air traffic ratio of 2.4. Each week, the air traffic typically peaks on Thursday and drops to a low Saturday with a range of 18%. Flight density is greatest during late summer and least during winter. The database records the disruption of air traffic after the air traffic shutdown during September 2001. The dataset should be valuable for realistically simulating the atmospheric effects of aircraft in the upper troposphere.

Description: A preliminary new, physically based method for realtime estimation of the probability of icing conditions has been demonstrated using merged GOES-10 and 12 data over the continental United States and southern Canada. The algorithm produces pixel-level cloud and radiation properties as well as an estimate of icing probability with an associated intensity rating Because icing depends on so many different variables, such as aircraft size or air speed, it is not possible to achieve 100% success with this or any other type of approach. This initial algorithm, however, shows great promise for diagnosing aircraft icing and putting it at the correct altitude within 0.5 km most of the time. Much additional research must be completed before it can serve as a reliable input for the operational CIP. The delineation of the icing layer vertical boundaries will need to be improved using either the RUC or balloon soundings or ceilometer data to adjust the cloud base height, a change that would require adjustment of the cloud-top altitude also.

Description: Experimental satellite-based icing products developed by the NASA Langley Research Center provide new tools to identify the locations of icing and its intensity. Since 1997, research forecasters at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have been helping to guide the NASA Glenn Research Center's Twin Otter aircraft into and out of clouds and precipitation for the purpose of characterizing in-flight icing conditions, including supercooled large drops, the accretions that result from such encounters and their effect on aircraft performance. Since the winter of 2003-04, the NASA Langley satellite products have been evaluated as part of this process, and are being considered as an input to NCAR s automated Current Icing Potential (CIP) products. This has already been accomplished for a relatively straightforward icing event, but many icing events have much more complex characteristics, providing additional challenges to all icing diagnosis tools. In this paper, four icing events with a variety of characteristics will be examined, with a focus on the NASA Langley satellite retrievals that were available in real time and their implications for icing nowcasting and potential applications in CIP.