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  • 1
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    Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasting at short and medium time scales (2018)
    Sears Foundation for Marine Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Sears Foundation for Marine Research for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Research 75 (2017): 877-921, doi:10.1357/002224017823523991.
    Description: Recent technological advances over the past few decades have enabled the development of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling prediction systems that are used today to support short-term (days to weeks) and medium-term (10–21 days) needs for both the operational and research communities. We overview the coupling framework, including model components and grid resolution considerations, as well as the coupling physics by examining heat fluxes between atmosphere and ocean, momentum transfer, and freshwater fluxes. These modeling systems can be run as fully coupled atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-ocean-wave configurations. Examples of several modeling systems applied to complex coastal regions including Madeira Island, Adriatic Sea, Coastal California, Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and the Maritime Continent are presented. In many of these studies, a variety of field campaigns have contributed to a better understanding of the underlying physics associated with the atmosphere-ocean feedbacks. Examples of improvements in predictive skill when run in coupled mode versus standalone are shown. Coupled model challenges such as model initialization, data assimilation, and earth system prediction are discussed.
    Description: JP acknowledges support from Office of Naval Research (ONR) grant N00014- 10-1-0300. RAA and TAS were supported through the 6.2 NRL Core Project “Coupled Ocean–Wave Prediction System” Program Element #0602435N. HS acknowledges support from ONR (N00014- 15-1-2588), NSF (OCE-f 419235), andNOAA(NA15OAR4310176). AJMwas supported by the NSF Earth System Modeling Program (OCE1419306) and the NOAA Climate Variability and Prediction Program (NA14OAR4310276). LPP is supported by CNPq’s fellowships on scientific productivity (CNPq 304009/2016-4). JA and RC were financially supported by the Oceanic Observatory of Madeira Project (M1420-01-0145-FEDER-000001-Observatório Oceânico da Madeira-OOM).
    Keywords: Coupled air-sea modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
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    A new framework for near‐surface wind convergence over the Kuroshio Extension and Gulf Stream in wintertime : the role of atmospheric fronts (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 45 (2018): 9909-9918, doi:10.1029/2018GL080135.
    Description: It is well known that the wintertime time‐mean surface wind convergence patterns over the Kuroshio Extension and Gulf Stream show significant imprints of the underlying oceanic fronts. Previous studies have suggested that this collocation results from a time‐mean response to sea level pressure forcing from sea surface temperature gradients. However, more recent work has illustrated this phenomenon is heavily influenced by extratropical cyclones, although exact mechanisms are still debated. The purpose of this study is to introduce a new framework that explicitly distinguishes between two separate components in their contribution to the time‐mean surface wind convergence, that associated with and without atmospheric fronts. It is then argued that this distinction can help better explain the mechanisms driving the Kuroshio Extension and Gulf Stream influence on the atmosphere.
    Description: National Science Foundation (NSF); NSF Physical Oceanography program Grant Numbers: AGS‐1355339, OCE‐1419235
    Description: 2019-03-29
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
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    Intraseasonal rainfall variability in the Bay of Bengal during the Summer Monsoon : coupling with the ocean and modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Atmospheric Science Letters 18 (2017): 88-95, doi:10.1002/asl.729.
    Description: The Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall exhibits pronounced intraseasonal variability in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). This study examines the intraseasonal rainfall variability with foci on the coupling with sea surface temperatures (SST) and its interannual modulation. The lagged composite analysis reveals that, in the northern BoB, SST warming leads the onset of intraseasonal rainfall by 5 days. Latent heat flux is reduced before the rain event but is greatly amplified during the rainfall maxima. Further analysis reveals that this intraseasonal rainfall-SST relationship through latent heating is strengthened in negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years when the bay-wide local SST is anomalously warm. Latent heat flux is further increased during the intraseasonal rainfall maxima leading to strengthened rainfall variability. The moisture budget analysis shows this is primarily due to stronger low-level moisture convergence in negative IOD years. The results provide important predictive information on the monsoon rainfall and its active/break cycles.
    Description: National Science Foundation Research Experience for Undergraduates Program (NSF-REU); Office of Naval Research Grant Number: N00014-15-1-2588; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Grant Number: NA15OAR4310176; National Science Foundation Grant Number: AGS-1304245
    Keywords: Bay of Bengal ; intraseasonal ; Monsoon ; IOD
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
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    Dynamical response of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer process to uncertainties in sea-ice concentration (2014)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 (2013): 12,383–12,402, doi:10.1002/2013JD020312.
    Description: Impact of sea-ice concentration (SIC) on the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is investigated using a polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) model forced with SIC conditions during three different years. We present a detailed comparison of the simulations with historical ship and ice station based data focusing on September. Our analysis shows that Polar WRF provides a reasonable representation of the observed ABL evolution provided that SIC uncertainties are small. Lower skill is obtained, however, with elevated SIC uncertainties associated with incorrect seasonal evolution of sea ice and misrepresentation of ice thickness near the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The result underscores the importance of accurate representation of ice conditions for skillful simulation of the Arctic ABL. Further, two dynamically distinctive effects of sea ice on the surface wind were found, which act on different spatial scales. Reduced SIC lowers ABL stability, thereby increasing surface-wind (W10) speeds. The spatial scale of this response is comparable to the basin scale of the SIC difference. In contrast, near-surface geostrophic wind (Wg) shows a strong response in the MIZ, where a good spatial correspondence exists among the Laplacian of the sea level pressure (SLP), the surface-wind convergence, and the vertical motion within the ABL. This indicates that SIC affects Wg through variation in SLP but on a much narrower scale. Larger-amplitude and broader-scale response in W10 implies that surface-wind stress derived from Wg to drive ice-ocean models may not fully reflect the effect of SIC changes.
    Description: The authors acknowledge the support from WHOI Arctic Research Initiative and National Science Foundation’s Office of Polar Program. H.S. thanks Andrey Proshutinsky (WHOI), Sang- Hun Park (NCAR), Keith Hines (BPRC/OSU), and Jun Inoue (JAMSTEC) for insightful comments.
    Description: 2014-05-20
    Keywords: Sea-ice concentration ; Boundary layer process ; Arctic sea ice ; Atmospheric modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
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    A simple diagnostic for the detection of atmospheric fronts (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 44 (2017): 4351–4358, doi:10.1002/2017GL073662.
    Description: In this article, a simple diagnostic to identify atmospheric fronts objectively from gridded data sets is presented. For this diagnostic, fronts are identified as regions where the normalized product of the isobaric relative vorticity and horizontal temperature gradient exceeds a threshold value. The purpose is to introduce a method that is both robust and particularly straightforward in calculation. A climatology of atmospheric fronts, as well as the identification of an individual frontal system, is computed using this diagnostic. These are subsequently compared to a more traditional frontal detection method and the similarities and differences discussed.
    Description: Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant Numbers: OCE-1419235, AGS-1355339; NSF Grant Numbers: OCE-1419235, AGS-1355339
    Description: 2017-11-14
    Keywords: Atmospheric fronts ; Objective frontal detection
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
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    Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 44 (2017): 8557–8566, doi:10.1002/2017GL074188.
    Description: Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.
    Description: U.S. National Science Foundation Grant Number: AGS-1355339; NASA Physical Oceanography Program Grant Number: NNX13AM59G; WHOI
    Description: 2018-02-25
    Keywords: European precipitation ; Climate variability and change ; British Isles
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
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    Coupled ocean–atmosphere modeling and predictions (2017)
    Sears Foundation for Marine Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Sears Foundation for Marine Research for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Research 75 (2017): 361-402, doi:10.1357/002224017821836770.
    Description: Key aspects of the current state of the ability of global and regional climate models to represent dynamical processes and precipitation variations are summarized. Interannual, decadal, and global-warming timescales, wherein the influence of the oceans is relevant and the potential for predictability is highest, are emphasized. Oceanic influences on climate occur throughout the ocean and extend over land to affect many types of climate variations, including monsoons, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, decadal oscillations, and the response to greenhouse gas emissions. The fundamental ideas of coupling between the ocean-atmosphere-land system are explained for these modes in both global and regional contexts. Global coupled climate models are needed to represent and understand the complicated processes involved and allow us to make predictions over land and sea. Regional coupled climate models are needed to enhance our interpretation of the fine-scale response. The mechanisms by which large-scale, low-frequency variations can influence shorter timescale variations and drive regionalscale effects are also discussed. In this light of these processes, the prospects for practical climate predictability are also presented.
    Description: AJMwas supported by theNSFEarth System Modeling Program (OCE1419306) and the NOAA Climate Variability and Prediction Program (NA14OAR4310276). HS thanks the Office of Naval Research for support under N00014-15-1-2588. LPP was supported by “Advanced Studies in Medium and High Latitudes Oceanography” (CAPES 23038.004304/2014-28) and “National Institute of Science andTechnology of the Cryosphere” (CNPq/PROANTAR704222/2009). VM was supported by NOAA grant NA12OAR4310078. TGJ was supported by the U. S. Naval Research Laboratory 6.2 project “Fresh Water Balance in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System” (BE-435-040-62435N-6777) YHT was supported by the MOST grant 106-2111-M-002-001, Taiwan.
    Keywords: Climate modeling ; Climate predictability ; Decadal climate variability ; El Niño Southern Oscillation ; ENSO ; Global warming ; Monsoons ; Ocean-atmospherel and interactions ; Regional climate downscaling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
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    On the effect of the East/Japan Sea SST variability on the North Pacific atmospheric circulation in a regional climate model (2014)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119 (2014): 418–444, doi:10.1002/2013JD020523.
    Description: The East/Japan Sea (EJS) is a semi-enclosed marginal sea located in the upstream of the North Pacific storm track, where the leading modes of wintertime interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST) are characterized by the basin-wide warming-cooling and the northeast-southwest dipole. Processes leading to local and remote atmospheric responses to these SST anomalies are investigated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The atmosphere in direct contact with anomalous diabatic forcing exhibits a linear and symmetric response with respect to the sign, pattern, and magnitude of SST anomalies, producing increased (decreased) wind speed and precipitation response over warm (cold) SSTs. This local response is due to modulation of both the vertical stability of the marine atmospheric boundary layer and the adjustment of sea level pressure, although the latter provides a better explanation of the quadrature relationship between SST and wind speed. The linearity in the local response suggests the importance of fine-scale EJS SSTs to predictability of the regional weather and climate variability. The remote circulation response, in contrast, is strongly nonlinear. An intraseasonal equivalent barotropic ridge emerges in the Gulf of Alaska as a common remote response independent of EJS SST anomalies. This downstream blocking response is reinforced by the enhanced storm track variability east of Japan via transient eddy vorticity flux convergence. Strong nonlinearity in remote response implies that detailed EJS SST patterns may not be critical to this downstream ridge response. Overall, results demonstrate a remarkably far-reaching impact of the EJS SSTs on the atmospheric circulation.
    Description: H.S. gratefully acknowledges the support from the Penzance Endowed Fund in support of Assistant Scientists at WHOI. Y.-O.K. acknowledges NSF Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics program (AGS-1035423). H.S. and Y.-O.K. also thank NASA grant (NNX13AM59G).
    Keywords: East Asian marginal seas ; Air-sea interaction ; Storm track ; Atmospheric blocking
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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