ALBERT

Description: The MyOcean R&D project MESCLA (MEsoSCaLe dynamical Analysis through combined model, satellite and in situ data) was devoted to the high resolution 3-D retrieval of tracer and velocity fields in the oceans, based on the combination of in situ and satellite observations and quasi-geostrophic dynamical models. The retrieval techniques were also tested and compared with the output of a primitive equation model, with particular attention to the accuracy of the vertical velocity field as estimated through the Q vector formulation of the omega equation. The project focused on a test case, covering the region where the Gulf Stream separates from the US East Coast. This work demonstrated that innovative methods for the high resolution mapping of 3-D mesoscale dynamics from observations can be used to build the next generations of operational observation-based products.

Description: This paper is the outcome of a workshop held in Rome in November 2011 on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the POEM (Physical Oceanography of the Eastern Mediterranean) program. In the workshop discussions, a number of unresolved issues were identified for the physical and biogeochemical properties of the Mediterranean Sea as a whole, i.e., comprising the Western and Eastern sub-basins. Over the successive two years, the related ideas were discussed among the group of scientists who participated in the workshop and who have contributed to the writing of this paper. Three major topics were identified, each of them being the object of a section divided into a number of different sub-sections, each addressing a specific physical, chemical or biological issue: 1. Assessment of basin-wide physical/biochemical properties, of their variability and interactions. 2. Relative importance of external forcing functions (wind stress, heat/moisture fluxes, forcing through straits) vs. internal variability. 3. Shelf/deep sea interactions and exchanges of physical/biogeochemical properties and how they affect the sub-basin circulation and property distribution. Furthermore, a number of unresolved scientific/methodological issues were also identified and are reported in each sub-section after a short discussion of the present knowledge. They represent the collegial consensus of the scientists contributing to the paper. Naturally, the unresolved issues presented here constitute the choice of the authors and therefore they may not be exhaustive and/or complete. The overall goal is to stimulate a broader interdisciplinary discussion among the scientists of the Mediterranean oceanographic community, leading to enhanced collaborative efforts and exciting future discoveries.

Description: This paper investigates, by means of Singular Value Decomposition analysis, the springtime relationships between the mean sea-level pressure field over the North Atlantic and the regional wind gusts over the Iberian Peninsula, identifying the main atmospheric circulation patterns linked to gust wind speed anomaly configurations. The statistical significance of the obtained modes is investigated by means of Monte Carlo approach. The analysis highlighted that the covariability is dominated by two main large-scale features of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The first mode relates to Iberian gust wind speeds to the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND), linking the large-scale pattern to above-normal wind gusts. The second covariability mode, associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern, correlates with maximum wind speeds over Iberia. An enhanced spring NAO pattern is related to positive (negative) wind gust correlations over northern (southern) Iberia. To find true relationships between large-scale atmospheric field and the gust wind speeds, composite maps were built up to give an average atmospheric circulation associated with coherent wind gust variability over Iberia.

Description: An innovative approach is used to analyse the impact of vertical velocities associated with quasi-geostrophic (QG) dynamics on the distribution of a passive nutrient tracer (nitrate) in the South East Pacific. Twelve years of vertical and horizontal currents are derived from an observation-based estimate of the ocean state. Horizontal velocities are obtained through application of thermal wind balance to weekly temperature and salinity fields. Vertical velocities are estimated by integration of the QG Omega equation. Seasonal variability of the synthetic vertical velocity and kinetic energy associated with the horizontal currents are coincident, with peaks in austral summer (November–December) in accord with published observations. Two ensembles of Lagrangian particle tracking experiments that differ according to vertical forcing (w = wQG vs. w = 0) enable a quantitative analysis of the impact of the vertical velocity. From identical initial distributions of nitrate-tagged particles, the Lagrangian results show that the impact of vertical advection on nutrient distribution is 30 % of the contribution of horizontal advection. Despite being weaker by a factor of up to 10−4 than the horizontal currents, vertical velocity is demonstrated to make an important contribution to nutrient distributions in the region of study.

Description: The accurate knowledge of the ocean Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) is a crucial issue for a number of oceanographic applications and in some areas of the Mediterranean Sea, important limitations have been found pointing to the need of an upgrade. We present a new Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) that was computed for the Mediterranean Sea. It takes profit of improvements made possible by the use of extended datasets and refined processing. The updated dataset spans the 1993–2012 period and consists of: drifter velocities, altimetry data, hydrological profiles and model data. The methodology is similar to the previous MDT Rio et al. (2007). However, in Rio et al. (2007) no hydrological profiles had been taken into account. This has required the development of dedicated processing. A number of sensitivity studies have been carried out to obtain the most accurate MDT as possible. The main results from these sensitivity studies are the following: moderate impact to the choice of correlation scales but almost negligible sensitivity to the choice of the first guess (model solution). A systematic external validation to independent data has been made to evaluate the performance of the new MDT. Compared to previous version, SMDT-MED-2014 features shorter scales structures, which results in an altimeter velocity variance closer to the observed velocity variance and, at the same time, gives better Taylor skills.

Description: The importance of the Mediterranean Sea for the world ocean has long been recognized. First, the Mediterranean sea has a profound impact on the Atlantic ocean circulation and, consequently, on the global thermohaline conveyor belt. Maps of the Mediterranean salty water tongue exiting from the Gibraltar strait at intermediate depths and spreading throughout the Atlantic interior are well known since the 1950s. Through direct pathways to the Atlantic polar regions or through indirect mixing processes, the salty Mediterranean water preconditions the deep convection cells of the polar Atlantic. There the North Atlantic Deep Water is formed which successively spreads throughout the world ocean constituting the core of the global thermohaline circulation. Even more importantly, the Mediterranean Sea is a laboratory basin for the investigation of processes of global importance, being much more amenable to observational surveys because of its location in mid-latitude and its dimensions. Both the western and eastern basins in fact possess closed thermohaline circulations analogous to the global conveyor belt. A unique upper layer open thermohaline cell connects the eastern to the western basin and, successively, to the north Atlantic through the Gibraltar strait. In it, the Atlantic water entering into Gibraltar in the surface layer, after travelling to the easternmost Levantine basin, is transformed into one of the saltiest water masses through air–sea heat and moisture fluxes. This is the salty water which, crossing the entire basin in the opposite direction below the surface Atlantic water, finally exits from the Gibraltar strait at mid-depths. Both the western and eastern basins are endowed with deep/intermediate convection cells analogous to the polar Atlantic deep convection cells or to the intermediate mode water ones. Deep and intermediate water masses are therefore formed in different sites of the entire basin. Because of their easily accessible locations, these convection cells are much more amenable to direct observational surveys and mooring arrays. An ubiquitous, energetic mesoscale and sub-mesoscale eddy field is superimposed to and interacts with the sub-basin scale, wind-driven gyres that characterize the upper thermocline circulation. Three different scales of motion are therefore superimposed producing a richness of interaction processes which typify similar interactions in unexplored ocean regions. Both wide and narrow shelves are present separated by steep continental slopes from the deep interiors. Cross-shelf fluxes of physical as well biogeochemical parameters are crucial in determining the properties of the shallow versus deep local ecosystems and their trophic chain. Most importantly, the Mediterranean Sea is a basin of contrasting ecosystems, from the strongly oligotrophic deep interiors to the fully eutrophic northern Adriatic characterized by recurrent, anomalous algal blooms and related anoxia events. This review focuses on the identification of the major unresolved scientific issues and wants also to provide directions for future research which may lead to the formulation of interdisciplinary, collaborative implementation plans to address these issues both theoretically and observationally.

Description: Within the MyOcean R&D project MESCLA (MEsoSCale dynamical Analysis through combined model, satellite and in situ data), different estimates of the vertical velocities derived from observations have been compared. Two main approaches have been considered, one based on the retrieval of 3-D fields from the observations alone and one based on the analyses provided by MyOcean MERCATOR models. The motivation for this double approach is that, while data assimilation in numerical models is crucial to obtain more accurate analyses and forecasts, its results might be significantly influenced by specific model configurations (e.g. forcing, parameterization of smaller scale processes and spatial resolution). On the other hand, the purely observation-based approach is limited by the underlying assumptions of simplified dynamical models and by the relatively low resolution of present products. MESCLA tested innovative methods for the high resolution mapping of 3-D mesoscale dynamics from observations, developing new products that might be used to gradually build the next generations of operational observation-based products.

Description: The accurate knowledge of the ocean's mean dynamic topography (MDT) is a crucial issue for a number of oceanographic applications and, in some areas of the Mediterranean Sea, important limitations have been found pointing to the need of an upgrade. We present a new MDT that was computed for the Mediterranean Sea. It profits from improvements made possible by the use of extended data sets and refined processing. The updated data set spans the 1993–2012 period and consists of drifter velocities, altimetry data, hydrological profiles and model data. The methodology is similar to the previous MDT by Rio et al. (2007). However, in Rio et al. (2007) no hydrological profiles had been taken into account. This required the development of dedicated processing. A number of sensitivity studies have been carried out to obtain the most accurate MDT as possible. The main results from these sensitivity studies are the following: moderate impact to the choice of correlation scales but almost negligible sensitivity to the choice of the first guess (model solution). A systematic external validation to independent data has been made to evaluate the performance of the new MDT. Compared to previous versions, SMDT-MED-2014 (Synthetic Mean Dynamic Topography of the MEDiterranean sea) features shorter-scale structures, which results in an altimeter velocity variance closer to the observed velocity variance and, at the same time, gives better Taylor skills.

Description: The purpose of this paper is the verification of a short-range ensemble prediction system (SREPS) built with five different model physical process parameterization schemes and two different initial conditions from global models, allowing to construct several versions of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale MM5 model for a 1-month period of October 2006. From the SREPS, flow-dependent probabilistic forecasts are provided by means of predictive probability distributions over the Iberian Peninsula down to 10-km grid spacing. In order to carry out the verification, 25 km grid of observational precipitation records over Spain from the Spanish Climatic Network has been used to evaluate the ensemble accuracy together with the mean model performance and forecast variability by means of comparisons between such records and the ensemble forecasts. This verification has been carried out upscaling the 10 km probabilistic forecast to the observational data grid. Temporal evolution of precipitation forecasts for spatial averaged ensemble members and the ensemble mean is shown, illustrating the consistency of the SREPS. Such evolutions summarize the SREPS information, showing each of the members as well as the ensemble mean evolutions. The Talagrand diagram derived from the SREPS results shows underdispersion which indicates some bias behaviour. The Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve shows a very outstanding area, indicating potential usefulness of the forecasting system. The forecast probability and the mean observed frequency present good agreement with the SREPS results close to the no-skill line. Because the probability has a good reliability and a positive contribution to the brier skill score, a positive value of this skill is obtained. Moreover, the probabilistic meteogram of the spatial daily mean precipitation values shows the range of forecast values, providing discrete probability information in different quantile intervals. The epsgram shows different daily distributions, indicating the predictability of each day.