Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
The statistical analysis of volcanic activity at Mt Etna was conducted with the twofold
aim of (1) constructing a probability map for vent opening of future flank eruptions and
(2) forecasting the expected number of eruptive events at the summit craters. The
spatiotemporal map of new vent opening at Etna volcano is based on the analysis of spatial
locations and frequency of flank eruptions starting from 1610. Thanks to the completeness
and accuracy of historical data over the last four centuries, we examined in detail the spatial
and temporal distribution of flank eruptions showing that effusive events follow a
nonhomogenous Poisson process with space-time varying intensities. After demonstrating
the spatial nonhomogeneity and the temporal nonstationarity of flank eruptions at Etna, we
calculated the recurrence rates (events expected per unit area per unit time) and produced
different spatiotemporal probability maps of new vent opening in the next 1, 10 and
50 years. These probabilistic maps have an immediate use in evaluating the future timing
and areas of Etna prone to volcanic hazards. Finally, the results of the analysis of the
persistent summit activity during the last 110 years indicate that the hazard rate for eruptive
events is not constant with time, differs for each summit crater of Mt Etna, highlighting a
general increase in the eruptive frequency starting from the middle of last century and
particularly from 1971, when the SE crater was formed.
Description:
This work was developed in the frame of
the TecnoLab, the Laboratory for the Technological Advance in Volcano
Geophysics organized by INGV-CT, DIEES-UNICT, and DMI-UNICT.
Description:
Published
Description:
1925-1935
Description:
1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
Description:
2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
Description:
3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
Description:
4V. Vulcani e ambiente
Description:
3IT. Calcolo scientifico e sistemi informatici
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
restricted
Keywords:
Etna
;
probabilistic modeling
;
eruption
;
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
;
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks
;
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
;
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation
;
05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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