Publication Date:
2018-10-18
Description:
Rapid Arctic warming is hypothesized to favor an increased persistence of regional weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere (Francis & Vavrus, 2012). Persistent conditions can lead to drought, heat waves, prolonged cold spells, and storminess that can cost millions of dollars in damage and disrupt societal and ecosystem norms. This study defines a new metric called long-duration events (LDEs)—conditions that endure at least four consecutive days—and takes two independent approaches to assessing seasonal changes in weather-pattern persistence over North America. One applies precipitation measurements at weather stations across the United States; the other is based on a cluster analysis of large-scale, upper-level atmospheric patterns. Both methods indicate an overall increase in LDEs. We also find that large-scale patterns consistent with a warm Arctic exhibit an increased frequency of LDEs, suggesting that further Arctic warming may favor persistent weather patterns that can lead to weather extremes. ©2018. The Authors.
Print ISSN:
0094-8276
Electronic ISSN:
1944-8007
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
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