ALBERT

Description: Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic indicate the existence of strong multidecadal variability with a unique spatial structure. It is shown by means of a new global climate model, which does not employ flux adjustments, that the multidecadal SST variability is closely related to variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The close correspondence between the North Atlantic SST and THC variabilities allows, in conjunction with the dynamical inertia of the THC, for the prediction of the slowly varying component of the North Atlantic climate system. It is shown additionally that past variations of the North Atlantic THC can be reconstructed from a simple North Atlantic SST index and that future, anthropogenically forced changes in the THC can be easily monitored by observing SSTs. The latter is confirmed by another state-of-the-art global climate model. Finally, the strong multidecadal variability may mask an anthropogenic signal in the North Atlantic for some decades.

Description: A new, non-flux-corrected, global climate model is introduced, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), which will be used to study internal climate variability from interannual to millennial time scales and climate predictability of the first and second kind. The version described here is a coarse-resolution version that will be employed in extended-range integrations of several millennia. KCM's performance in the tropical Pacific with respect to mean state, annual cycle, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is described. Additionally, the tropical Pacific response to global warming is studied.Overall, climate drift in a multicentury control integration is small. However, KCM exhibits an equatorial cold bias at the surface of the order 1 degrees C, while strong warm biases of several degrees are simulated in the eastern tropical Pacific on both sides off the equator, with maxima near the coasts. The annual and semiannual cycles are realistically simulated in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, respectively. ENSO performance compares favorably to observations with respect to both amplitude and period. An ensemble of eight greenhouse warming simulations was performed, in which the CO2 concentration was increased by 1% yr(-1) until doubling was reached, and stabilized thereafter. Warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) is, to first order, zonally symmetric and leads to a sharpening of the thermocline. ENSO variability increases because of global warming: during the 30-yr period after CO2 doubling, the ensemble mean standard deviation of Nino-3 SST anomalies is increased by 26% relative to the control, and power in the ENSO band is almost doubled. The increased variability is due to both a strengthened (22%) thermocline feedback and an enhanced (52%) atmospheric sensitivity to SST; both are associated with changes in the basic state. Although variability increases in the mean, there is a large spread among ensemble members and hence a finite probability that in the "model world" no change in ENSO would be observed.

Description: Most global climate models simulate a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in response to enhanced greenhouse warming. Both surface warming and freshening in high latitudes, the so-called sinking region, contribute to the weakening of the THC. Some models even simulate a complete breakdown of the THC at sufficiently strong forcing. Here results are presented from a state-of-the-art global climate model that does not simulate a weakening of the THC in response to greenhouse warming. Large-scale air–sea interactions in the Tropics, similar to those operating during present-day El Niños, lead to anomalously high salinities in the tropical Atlantic. These are advected into the sinking region, thereby increasing the surface density and compensating the effects of the local warming and freshening.

Description: Two extended integrations of general circulation models (GCMs) are examined to determine the physical processes operating during an ENSO cycle. The first integration is from the Hamburg version of the ECMWF T21 atmospheric model forced with observed global sea surface temperatures (SST) over the period 1970–85. The second integration is from a Max Planck Institut model of the tropical Pacific forced by observed wind stress for the same period. Both integrations produce key observed features of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system during the 1970–85 period. The atmospheric model results show an eastward propagation of information from the western to eastern Pacific along the equator, although this signal is somewhat weaker than observed. The Laplacian of SST largely drives the surface wind field convergence and hence determines the position of large scale precipitation-condensation heating. This statement is valid only in the near-equatorial zone. Air-sea heat exchange is important in the planetary boundary layer in forcing the wind field convergence but not so important to the main troposphere, which is heated largely by condensation heating. The monopole response seen in the atmosphere above about 500 mb is due to a combination of factors, the most important being adiabatic heating associated with subsidence and tropic-wide variations in precipitation. The models show the role of air-sea heat exchange in the ocean heat balance in the wave guide is one of dissipation/damping. Total air-sea heat exchange is well represented by a simple Newtonian cooling parameterization in the near-equatorial region. In the wave guide, advection dominates the oceanic heat balance with meridional advection being numerically the most important in all regions except right on the equator. The meridional term is largely explained by local Ekman dynamics that generally overwhelm other processes in the regions of significant wind stress. The principal element in this advection term is the anomalous meridional current acting on the climatological mean meridional SST gradient. The eastward motion of the anomalies seen in both models is driven primarily by the ocean. The wind stress associated with the SST anomalies forces an equatorial convergence of heat and mass in the ocean. Outside the region of significant wind forcing, the mass source leads to a convergent geostrophic flow, which drives the meridional heat flux and causes warming to the east of the main wind anomaly. West of the main anomaly the wind and geostrophic divergence cause advective cooling. The result is that the main SST anomaly appears to move eastward. Since the direct SST forcing drives the anomalous wind, surface wind convergence, and associated precipitation, these fields are seen also to move eastward.

Description: This paper describes the mean ocean circulation and the tropical variability simulated by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Results are presented from a version of the coupled model that served as a prototype for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations. The model does not require flux adjustment to maintain a stable climate. A control simulation with present-day greenhouse gases is analyzed, and the simulation of key oceanic features, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), large-scale circulation, meridional heat and freshwater transports, and sea ice are compared with observations. A parameterization that accounts for the effect of ocean currents on surface wind stress is implemented in the model. The largest impact of this parameterization is in the tropical Pacific, where the mean state is significantly improved: the strength of the trade winds and the associated equatorial upwelling weaken, and there is a reduction of the model’s equatorial cold SST bias by more than 1 K. Equatorial SST variability also becomes more realistic. The strength of the variability is reduced by about 30% in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the extension of SST variability into the warm pool is significantly reduced. The dominant El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period shifts from 3 to 4 yr. Without the parameterization an unrealistically strong westward propagation of SST anomalies is simulated. The reasons for the changes in variability are linked to changes in both the mean state and to a reduction in atmospheric sensitivity to SST changes and oceanic sensitivity to wind anomalies.

Description: The sensitivity of the global climate system to interannual variability of he Eurasian snow cover has been investigated with numerical models. It was found that heavier than normal Eurasian snow cover in spring leads to a “poor” monsoon over Southeast Asia thereby verifying an idea over 100 years old. The poor monsoon was characterized by reduced rainfall over India and Burma, reduced wind stress over the Indian Ocean, lower than normal temperatures on the Asian land mass and in the overlying atmospheric column, reduced tropical jet, increased soil moisture, and other features associated with poor monsoons. Lighter than normal snow cover led to a “good” monsoon with atmospheric anomalies like those described above but of opposite sign. Remote responses from the snow field perturbation include readjustment of the Northern Hemispheric mass field in midlatitude, an equatorially symmetric response of the tropical geopotential height and temperature field and weak, but significant, perturbations in the surface wind stress and heat flux in the tropical Pacific. The physics responsible for the regional response involves all elements of both the surface heat budget and heat budget of the full atmospheric column. In essence, the snow, soil and atmospheric moisture all act to keep the land and overlying atmospheric column colder than normal during a heavy snow simulation thus reducing the land–ocean temperature contrast needed to initiate the monsoon. The remote responses are driven by heating anomalies associated with both large scale air-sea interactions and precipitation events. The model winds from the heavy snow experiment were used to drive an ocean model. The SST field in that model developed a weak El Niño in the equatorial Pacific. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulation perturbed only by anomalous Eurasian snow cover was also run and it developed a much stranger El Niño in the Pacific. The coupled system clearly amplified the wind stress anomaly associated with the poor monsoon. These results show the important role of an evolving (not specified) sea surface temperature in numerical experiments and the real climate system. Our general results also demonstrate the importance of land processes in global climate dynamics and their possible role as one of the factors that could trigger ENSO events.