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  • 1
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    Effects of high resolution and spinup time on modeled North Atlantic circulation (2019)
    AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 49(5), pp. 1159-1181, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-06-11
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    Past megadroughts in central Europe were longer, more severe and less warm than modern droughts (2021)
    Nature Research
    In:  EPIC3Communications Earth & Environment, Nature Research, 2(1), pp. 61, ISSN: 2662-4435
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: Megadroughts are notable manifestations of the American Southwest, but not so much of the European climate. By using long-term hydrological and meteorological observations, as well as paleoclimate reconstructions, here we show that central Europe has experienced much longer and severe droughts during the Spörer Minimum (~AD 1400–1480) and Dalton Minimum (~AD 1770–1840), than the ones observed during the 21st century. These two megadroughts appear to be linked with a cold state of the North Atlantic Ocean and enhanced winter atmospheric blocking activity over the British Isles and western part of Europe, concurrent with reduced solar forcing and explosive volcanism. Moreover, we show that the recent drought events (e.g., 2003, 2015, and 2018), are within the range of natural variability and they are not unprecedented over the last millennium.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 3
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    Predicting the June 2013 European Flooding based on Precipitation, Soil Moisture and Sea Level Pressure (2015)
    AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Hydrometeorology, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 16(2), pp. 598-614, ISSN: 1525-755X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-06-05
    Description: Over the past decades Europe has experienced heavy floods with major consequences for thousands of people and billions of Euros worth of damage. In particular, the summer 2013 flood in Central Europe showed how vulnerable modern society is to hydrological extremes and emphasizes once more the need for improved forecast methods of such extreme climatic events. Based on a multiple linear regression model, it is shown here that 55% of the June 2013 Elbe River extreme discharge could have been predicted using May precipitation, soil moisture and sea level pressure. Moreover, our model was able to predict more than 75% of the total Elbe River discharge for June 2013 (in terms of magnitude) by incorporating also the amount of precipitation recorded during the days prior the flood, but the predicted discharge for the June 2013 event was still underestimated by 25%. Given that all predictors used in the model are available at the end of each month, the forecast scheme can be used to predict extreme events and to provide early warnings for upcoming floods. The forecast methodology could be efficient for other rivers also, depending on their location and their climatic background.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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