ALBERT

Description: The seasonal and interannual variation in the lower mesospheric subtropical jet (LMSJ) and their dependence on the 11-year solar cycle are studied by comparing observational data with simulations by two general circulation models. In the model simulations, a strengthening of the LMSJs is found in both hemispheres during the winter under the solar maximum condition, similar to the observation. However the model responses are substantially smaller except for one case in the southern hemisphere. It is also found that the stronger LMSJ due to an enhanced solar forcing appears during the period which follows an increasing period of interannual variation. Analysis of the observed seasonal march of the LMSJ in each year shows two different regimes of behavior. For a successful simulation, the model should realistically reproduce the observed interannual variability as well as the climatological mean.

Description: The early major warming in December 2001 is described and compared to the two other December major warmings in 1998 and 1987, showing a strong tropospheric-stratospheric coupling in all three cases. We argue that the occurrence of free westward propagating Rossby waves interacting with a forced quasi-stationary wave number 1 led to these three early events. The possible excitation of these waves is discussed with respect to the tropospheric circulation, which showed strong blockings over the northern Atlantic prior to the early major warmings.

Description: So far, general circulation model studies have not been able to capture the magnitude and characteristics of the observed 11-year solar signal in the stratosphere satisfactorily. Here results from model experiments with the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model are presented that are in considerable agreement with observations. The experiments used realistic spectral solar irradiance changes, ozone changes from a two-dimensional radiative-chemical-transport model, and a relaxation toward observed equatorial wind profiles throughout the stratosphere. During Northern Hemisphere winter a realistic poleward downward propagation of the polar night jet (PNJ) anomalies, significantly weaker planetary wave activity, and a weaker mean meridional circulation under solar maximum conditions are reproduced in the model. The observed interaction between the Sun and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is captured and stratospheric warmings occur preferentially in the west phase of the QBO. Only the magnitude of the anomalies during the dynamically active season improves, whereas the summer signal and the signal at low latitudes are still too weak. The results emphasize the important role of equatorial winds in achieving a more realistic solar signal by producing a more realistic wind climatology. Furthermore, they confirm recent results that equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere, the region dominated by the Semiannual Oscillation, are an important factor in determining interannual variability of the PNJ.