ALBERT

Description: In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The late Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of five sensitivity experiments. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, considering the models are set up with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene, the results demonstrate the difficulty of all six models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. The specific sea-level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet at this point cannot be conclusively determined, whereas improved grounding line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding-line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.

Description: Numerical ice sheet models constrained by theory and refined by comparisons with observational data are a central component of work to address the interactions between the cryosphere and changing climate, at a wide range of scales. Although there continue to be significant advances in modelling, major challenges still exist, in particular in terms of downscaling global climate model output to estimate regional and local climate patterns that are critical controls for the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets. Ice sheet models are tested and refined by comparing model predictions of past ice geometries with field-based reconstructions from geological, geomorphological, and ice core data. However, on the East Antarctic Ice sheet, there is a critical gap in the empirical data required to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry in the Dronning Maud Land (DML) region. In addition, there is poor control on the regional climate history of the ice sheet margin, because ice core locations, where detailed reconstructions of climate history exist, are located on high inland domes. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history in this near-coastal area largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is an ongoing Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration with a focus on improving ice sheet models by combining advances in modeling with filling critical data gaps that exist in our knowledge of the timing and pattern of ice surface changes on the western Dronning Maud Land margin. A combination of geomorphological mapping using remote sensing data, field investigations, cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, and numerical ice-sheet modelling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of western Dronning Maud Land. We present an overview of the project, as well as results of the initial mapping and modelling that has been used to identify high potential sites for field sampling in 2016/17 and 2017/18.

Description: Given current concern about the stability of ice sheets, and potential sea level rise, it is imperative that we are able to reconstruct and predict the response of ice sheets to climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), amongst others, have highlighted that our current ability to do so is limited. Numerical ice sheet models are a central component of the work to address this challenge. An unresolved key issue in this work concerns the volume and rate of ice mass loss needed to explain the large difference between late glacial and interglacial global sea levels. Some 20% of observed sea level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cannot be attributed to any known former ice mass, indicating that this inconsistency arises from the deficiencies in modelled reconstructions of ice sheet volumes and postglacial rebound. Ice sheet models are tested and refined by comparing model predictions of past ice geometries with field-based reconstructions from geological, geomorphological and ice core data. However, on the East Antarctic Ice sheet, Dronning Maud Land (DML) presents a critical gap in the empirical data required to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry. In addition, there is poor control on regional climate histories of ice sheet margins, because ice core locations, where detailed reconstructions of climate history exist, are located on high inland domes. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is a Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration with a focus on filling the critical data gaps that exist in our knowledge of the timing and pattern of ice surface changes on the western Dronning Maud Land margin. Here we describe a series of high-resolution modelling experiments to help identify those areas across western Dronning Maud Land that are the most sensitive to uncertainties in the regional climate history and the choice of model parameters. For this we employ a wide range of climate and ocean histories combining published outputs of 18 general circulation models for the LGM and mid-Holocene with ice core records. The modelling results together with remote sensing mapping of glacial landforms is informing and guiding cosmogenic nuclide sampling campaigns in western Dronning Maud Land starting 2016/17. Successful integration of numerical modelling and field investigations in an iterative manner is key to achieving the anticipated outcome of the MAGIC-DML project, a reconstruction of the long-term pattern and timing of vertical changes in ice surface elevation since the mid-Pliocene warm period, which will provide the missing empirical data required to constrain numerical ice sheet models.

Description: In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The late Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of five sensitivity experiments. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, considering the models are set up with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene, the results demonstrate the difficulty of all six models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. The specific sea-level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet at this point cannot be conclusively determined, whereas improved grounding line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding-line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.

Description: In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The Late-Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of four sensitivity experiments. Ice-sheet model forcing fields are taken from the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean climate model runs for the pre-industrial and the Pliocene. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, although the models are setup with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene simulations using the Bedmap1 bedrock topography, some models show a small retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. This can be ascribed to either the surface mass balance, as the HadCM3 Pliocene climate shows a significant increase over the Wilkes and Aurora basin, or the initial bedrock topography. For the latter, our simulations with the recently published Bedmap2 bedrock topography indicate a significantly larger contribution to Pliocene sea-level rise from the East Antarctic ice sheet for all six models relative to the simulations with Bedmap1. Such multi-model comparison efforts will assist in providing potential model uncertainty when comparing reconstructions of the Antarctic ice sheet with available proxy data.

Description: Accurate assessment of past and future ice sheet-driven sea level variations requires continental-scale numerical models that are able to cover long response time scales of ice sheets, typically involving thousands of years. In order to allow such time scales, the Shallow Ice and Shallow Shelf approximations (SIA/SSA) are commonly introduced to simplify the Stokes equations describing the dynamical regimes of the grounded and oating ice sectors, respectively. However, the SIA is inapplicable to the fast owing regions where basal sliding operates and some of the neglected terms in the Stokes equations become important. Since these terms are included in the SSA, many recent studies have introduced heuristic \hybrid" combinations of both approximations in order to reproduce the dynamics of rapid ice ow zones. However, a side-by-side evaluation of their performance in realistic scenarios is still missing. In this study, we implement three dierent hybrid approaches into the same continental-scale numerical model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our experiments involve an automated calibration of the model based on an iterative technique that uses modern observational data sets to estimate variations in the poorly constrained basal sliding parameters. For validation purposes, we compare the results with the independent observed surface velocity eld. Our results show that the automated calibration compensates for the dierences in the hybrid schemes through dierent parameter distributions, thereby producing similar ice sheet congurations. We use an averaged parameter distribution to demonstrate the in uences arising from the use of dierent hybrid approaches. Although the uncertainty in the basal conditions limits an objective evaluation of the hybrid schemes, our experiments show that the retrieved parameter distributions are not exchangeable between the schemes. This suggests that the results of the calibration and/or initialization of a specic numerical ice sheet model cannot be straightforwardly transferable to a model that uses a dierent level of approximation of the Stokes equations, which represents an important limitation for more complex and computationally expensive ice sheet models.

Description: Reconstructing and predicting the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change is one of the major challenges facing the Earth Science community. Numerical models of ice sheets are a central component of work to address this challenge, and these models are tested and improved by comparing model predictions of past ice extents with field-based reconstructions (from geological and geomorphological data). However, there are critical gaps in our knowledge of past changes in ice elevation and extent in many regions of East Antarctica, including a large area of Dronning Maud Land. In addition, there exist significant uncertainties in regional climate history along the ice sheet margin due to remoteness of these areas from ice core locations where detailed reconstructions of past climate conditions have been performed. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is a new Swedish-UK-US-Norwegian-German project that aims to reconstruct vertical changes in ice extent across Dronning Maud Land as the basis for constraining numerical models of ice sheet behavior. The focus of the two planned field seasons will be in areas that have been identified as being critical for differentiating between possible past ice sheet configuration and timing. Geological reconstruction will involve the identification, mapping, and dating of glacially sculpted bedrock, ice-marginal moraines, drift sheets and erratic boulders that provide evidence for past changes in ice levels over thousands to millions of years. Prior to the field investigations, the German team is performing a detailed high-resolution modeling of the paleoglacial history and identifying areas across Dronning Maud Land that are most sensitive to the uncertainties in regional climate history and the choice of model parameters. These modeling results will be used as a basis for planning and guiding the field campaigns in East Antarctica in 2015 and 2016.

Description: Reconstructing and predicting the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change is one of the major challenges facing the Earth Science community. There are critical gaps in our knowledge of past changes in ice elevation and extent in many regions of East Antarctica, including a large area of Dronning Maud Land. An international Swedish-UK-US-Norwegian-German project MAGIC-DML aims to reconstruct the timing and pattern of ice surface elevation (thus ice sheet volume) fluctuations since the mid-Pliocene warm period on the Dronning Maud Land margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. A combination of remotely sensed geomorphological mapping, field investigations, surface exposure dating and numerical modelling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of Dronning Maud Land. Here we present the results from the first phase of this project, which involves high-resolution numerical simulations of the past glacial geometries and mapping of the field area using historic and recent aerial imagery together with a range of satellite acquired data.