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  • Wiley  (3)
  • 2015-2019  (3)
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  • Wiley  (3)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract The Kp index is a measure of the mid‐latitude global geomagnetic activity and represents short‐term magnetic variations driven by solar wind plasma and IMF. The Kp index is one of the most widely used indicators for space weather alerts and serves as input to various models, such as for the thermosphere and the radiation belts. It is therefore crucial to predict the Kp index accurately. Previous work in this area has mostly employed artificial neural networks to nowcast Kp, based their inferences on the recent history of Kp and on solar wind measurements at L1. In this study, we systematically test how different machine learning techniques perform on the task of nowcasting and forecasting Kp for prediction horizons of up to 12 hours. Additionally, we investigate different methods of machine learning and information theory for selecting the optimal inputs to a predictive model. We illustrate how these methods can be applied to select the most important inputs to a predictive model of Kp and to significantly reduce input dimensionality. We compare our best performing models based on a reduced set of optimal inputs with the existing models of Kp, using different test intervals and show how this selection can affect model performance.
    Print ISSN: 1539-4964
    Electronic ISSN: 1542-7390
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2015-04-26
    Description: The nature of the transition that high-latitude reverse convection makes in response to fast IMF changes is investigated using observations from multiple spacecraft and a ground magnetometer array. We focused on two fast IMF-transition events on 22 April 2006. Immediately after the first event, three ST5 spacecraft identified a clear change in the distribution of the polar cap field-aligned current. Coordinate observations with the Greenland magnetometer chain showed that the near-noon Hall current distribution, which is closely related to the polar cap field-aligned current or reverse convection, was in a transition state for about 10 min. For the second event, the Greenland magnetic perturbations also showed that a transition state occurred in the near-noon sector for 10 – 15 min. Three DMSP spacecraft that traversed the polar cap provided evidence showing that variations of the ground magnetic perturbations were produced by the transition from clockwise plasma circulation to the anti-clockwise circulation over the polar cap. A simple calculation based on the Biot-Savart law shows that the near-noon transition state is consistent with the approach of a new convection region to the near-noon sector at the speed of 0.5 – 1 km s −1 , which is coupled with the moving away of the old convection region at a similar speed. For the higher-latitude sunward flow region, it is found that the convection takes a transition state almost simultaneously (within 1 min) with that in the near-noon sector, i . e ., quasi-instantaneous response.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2015-02-27
    Description: Traveling convection vortices (TCVs) are generally produced by field-aligned currents (FACs) at high latitudes associated with transient changes of the magnetopause. This paper presents multi-point conjugate observations of transient events at the magnetopause measured in space and on the ground. The transient events showing radial fluctuation of the magnetopause in association with sudden increases in solar wind dynamic pressure were detected both by the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) spacecraft. Geomagnetic signatures seen as TCVs in response to the transient events were observed by the ground magnetometer array in Greenland, Canada and their conjugate locations in Antarctica including recently developed Antarctic magnetometers, mostly located along the 40° magnetic meridian. This new conjugate network provides a unique opportunity to observe geomagnetic field signatures over a relatively large region in both hemispheres. This study focuses mainly on the spatial and temporal features of the TCVs in the conjugate hemispheres in relation to the transient events at the magnetopause. The TCV events are characterized by their single or twin vortex, of which the centers are located approximately at 72°−76° MLAT, propagating either dawnward or duskward away from local noon. While interhemispheric conjugacy is expected with an assumption that TCV signatures are created by FACs directed in both hemispheres, our observations suggest that there might be more complex mechanisms contributing the asymmetrical features, perhaps due to field line mapping and/or conductivity differences.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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