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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Foltz, G. R., Brandt, P., Richter, I., Rodriguez-Fonsecao, B., Hernandez, F., Dengler, M., Rodrigues, R. R., Schmidt, J. O., Yu, L., Lefevre, N., Da Cunha, L. C., Mcphaden, M. J., Araujo, M., Karstensen, J., Hahn, J., Martin-Rey, M., Patricola, C. M., Poli, P., Zuidema, P., Hummels, R., Perez, R. C., Hatje, V., Luebbecke, J. F., Palo, I., Lumpkin, R., Bourles, B., Asuquo, F. E., Lehodey, P., Conchon, A., Chang, P., Dandin, P., Schmid, C., Sutton, A., Giordani, H., Xue, Y., Illig, S., Losada, T., Grodsky, S. A., Gasparinss, F., Lees, T., Mohino, E., Nobre, P., Wanninkhof, R., Keenlyside, N., Garcon, V., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Nnamchi, H. C., Drevillon, M., Storto, A., Remy, E., Lazar, A., Speich, S., Goes, M., Dorrington, T., Johns, W. E., Moum, J. N., Robinson, C., Perruches, C., de Souza, R. B., Gaye, A. T., Lopez-Paragess, J., Monerie, P., Castellanos, P., Benson, N. U., Hounkonnou, M. N., Trotte Duha, J., Laxenairess, R., & Reul, N. The tropical Atlantic observing system. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6(206), (2019), doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00206.
    Description: he tropical Atlantic is home to multiple coupled climate variations covering a wide range of timescales and impacting societally relevant phenomena such as continental rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, oceanic biological productivity, and atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Pacific. The tropical Atlantic also connects the southern and northern branches of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and receives freshwater input from some of the world’s largest rivers. To address these diverse, unique, and interconnected research challenges, a rich network of ocean observations has developed, building on the backbone of the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA). This network has evolved naturally over time and out of necessity in order to address the most important outstanding scientific questions and to improve predictions of tropical Atlantic severe weather and global climate variability and change. The tropical Atlantic observing system is motivated by goals to understand and better predict phenomena such as tropical Atlantic interannual to decadal variability and climate change; multidecadal variability and its links to the meridional overturning circulation; air-sea fluxes of CO2 and their implications for the fate of anthropogenic CO2; the Amazon River plume and its interactions with biogeochemistry, vertical mixing, and hurricanes; the highly productive eastern boundary and equatorial upwelling systems; and oceanic oxygen minimum zones, their impacts on biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems, and their feedbacks to climate. Past success of the tropical Atlantic observing system is the result of an international commitment to sustained observations and scientific cooperation, a willingness to evolve with changing research and monitoring needs, and a desire to share data openly with the scientific community and operational centers. The observing system must continue to evolve in order to meet an expanding set of research priorities and operational challenges. This paper discusses the tropical Atlantic observing system, including emerging scientific questions that demand sustained ocean observations, the potential for further integration of the observing system, and the requirements for sustaining and enhancing the tropical Atlantic observing system.
    Description: MM-R received funding from the MORDICUS grant under contract ANR-13-SENV-0002-01 and the MSCA-IF-EF-ST FESTIVAL (H2020-EU project 797236). GF, MG, RLu, RP, RW, and CS were supported by NOAA/OAR through base funds to AOML and the Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division (OOMD; fund reference 100007298). This is NOAA/PMEL contribution #4918. PB, MDe, JH, RH, and JL are grateful for continuing support from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. German participation is further supported by different programs funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, the Deutsche Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), and the European Union. The EU-PREFACE project funded by the EU FP7/2007–2013 programme (Grant No. 603521) contributed to results synthesized here. LCC was supported by the UERJ/Prociencia-2018 research grant. JOS received funding from the Cluster of Excellence Future Ocean (EXC80-DFG), the EU-PREFACE project (Grant No. 603521) and the BMBF-AWA project (Grant No. 01DG12073C).
    Keywords: Tropical Atlantic Ocean ; Observing system ; Weather ; Climate ; Hurricanes ; Biogeochemistry ; Ecosystems ; Coupled model bias
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Domingues, R., Kuwano-Yoshida, A., Chardon-Maldonado, P., Todd, R. E., Halliwell, G., Kim, H., Lin, I., Sato, K., Narazaki, T., Shay, L. K., Miles, T., Glenn, S., Zhang, J. A., Jayne, S. R., Centurioni, L., Le Henaff, M., Foltz, G. R., Bringas, F., Ali, M. M., DiMarco, S. F., Hosoda, S., Fukuoka, T., LaCour, B., Mehra, A., Sanabia, E. R., Gyakum, J. R., Dong, J., Knaff, J. A., & Goni, G. Ocean observations in support of studies and forecasts of tropical and extratropical cyclones. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 446, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00446.
    Description: Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical bomb cyclones (ECs). In order to foster further advancements to predict and better understand these extreme weather events, a need for a dedicated observing system component specifically to support studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs has been identified, but such a system has not yet been implemented. New technologies, pilot networks, targeted deployments of instruments, and state-of-the art coupled numerical models have enabled advances in research and forecast capabilities and illustrate a potential framework for future development. Here, applications and key results made possible by the different ocean observing efforts in support of studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs, as well as recent advances in observing technologies and strategies are reviewed. Then a vision and specific recommendations for the next decade are discussed.
    Description: This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and JSPS KAKENHI (Grant Numbers: JP17K19093, JP16K12591, and JP16H01846).
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Extratropical bomb cyclones ; Upper-ocean temperature ; Ocean heat content ; Global ocean observing system ; Weather extremes ; Natural hazards ; Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-02-22
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-05-03
    Description: Rapid intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30-year satellite period of 1986–2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24-hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large-scale environment, has predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) are metrics used to incorporate the ocean’s influence on hurricane intensification into the National Hurricane Center’s Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). While both SST and TCHP serve as useful measures of the upper-ocean heat content, they do not accurately represent ocean stratification effects. Here, it is shown that replacing SST within the SHIPS framework with a dynamic temperature Tdy, which accounts for the oceanic negative feedback to the hurricane’s intensity arising from storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface cooling, improves the model performance. While the model with SST and TCHP explains about 41% of the variance in 36-h intensity changes, replacing SST with Tdy increases the variance explained to nearly 44%. These results suggest that representation of the oceanic feedback, even through relatively simple formulations such as Tdy, may improve the performance of statistical hurricane intensity prediction models such as SHIPS.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2016-10-25
    Description: This study examines the causes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic between 1982 and 2015. The emphasis is on the boreal winter and spring seasons, when tropical Atlantic SSTs project strongly onto the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). Results from a composite analysis of satellite and reanalysis data show important forcing of SST anomalies by wind-driven changes in mixed layer depth and shortwave radiation between 5° and 10°N, in addition to the well-known positive wind–evaporation–SST and shortwave radiation–SST feedbacks between 5° and 20°N. Anomalous surface winds also drive pronounced thermocline depth anomalies of opposite signs in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; 2°–8°N). A major new finding is that there is strong event-to-event variability in the impact of thermocline depth on SST in the ITCZ region, in contrast to the more consistent relationship in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. Much stronger anomalies of meridional wind stress, thermocline depth, and vertical turbulent cooling are found in the ITCZ region during a negative AMM event in 2009 compared to a negative event in 2015 and a positive event in 2010, despite SST anomalies of similar magnitude in the early stages of each event. The larger anomalies in 2009 led to a much stronger and longer-lived event. Possible causes of the inconsistent relationship between thermocline depth and SST in the ITCZ region are discussed, including the preconditioning role of the winter cross-equatorial SST gradient.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-12-08
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-05-30
    Description: This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.
    Print ISSN: 0084-6597
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-4495
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Annual Reviews
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-06-01
    Print ISSN: 2169-9275
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-9291
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-08-11
    Description: This study explores the seasonally lagged impact of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) in the Atlantic main development region (MDR) on the subsequent Atlantic hurricane season. It is found that wintertime SST anomalies in the MDR can persist into the summer, explaining 42% of the variance in the subsequent hurricane season's SST during 1951–2010. An anomalously warm wintertime in the MDR is usually followed by an anomalously active hurricane season. Analysis shows an important constraint on the seasonal evolution of the MDR SST by the water vapor feedback process, in addition to the well-known wind-evaporation-SST and cloud-SST feedback mechanisms over the tropical North Atlantic. The water vapor feedback influences the seasonal evolution of MDR SST by modulating seasonal variations of downward longwave radiation. This wintertime thermal control of hurricane activity has significant implications for seasonal predictions and long-term projections of hurricane activity over the North Atlantic. ©2017. The Authors.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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