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  • 1
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    Data Assimilation of Volcanic Aerosols using FALL3D+PDAF (2022)
    Egu-Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-16
    Description: Modelling atmospheric dispersal of volcanic ash and aerosols is becoming increasingly valuable for assessing the potential impacts of explosive volcanic eruptions on infrastructures, air quality, and aviation. Management of volcanic risk and reduction of aviation impacts can strongly benefit from quantitative forecasting of volcanic ash. However, an accurate prediction of volcanic aerosol concentrations using numerical modelling relies on proper estimations of multiple model parameters which are prone to errors. Uncertainties in key parameters such as eruption column height, physical properties of particles or meteorological fields, represent a major source of error affecting the forecast quality. The availability of near-real-time geostationary satellite observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions provides the opportunity to improve forecasts in an operational context by incorporating observations into numerical models. Specifically, ensemble-based filters aim at converting a prior ensemble of system states into an analysis ensemble by assimilating a set of noisy observations. Previous studies dealing with volcanic ash transport have demonstrated that a significant improvement of forecast skill can be achieved by this approach. In this work, we present a new implementation of an ensemble-based Data Assimilation (DA) method coupling the FALL3D dispersal model and the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The FALL3D+PDAF system runs in parallel, supports online-coupled DA and can be efficiently integrated into operational workflows by exploiting high-performance computing (HPC) resources. Two numerical experiments are considered: (i) a twin experiment using an incomplete dataset of synthetic observations of volcanic ash and, (ii) an experiment based on the 2019 Raikoke eruption using real observations of SO2 mass loading. An ensemble-based Kalman filtering technique based on the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is used to assimilate satellite-retrieved data of column mass loading. We show that this procedure may lead to nonphysical solutions and, consequently, conclude that LETKF is not the best approach for the assimilation of volcanic aerosols. However, we find that a truncated state constructed from the LETKF solution approaches the real solution after a few assimilation cycles, yielding a dramatic improvement of forecast quality when compared to simulations without assimilation.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1773–1792
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Explosive volcanic eruptions ; Data assimilation ; Satellite data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic (2022)
    Egu-Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen.
    Description: Published
    Description: 139-163
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen Island (Norway) and implications on air-traffic in the North Atlantic (2021)
    Egu-Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-23
    Description: Volcanic eruptions are amongst the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during the explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world, with at least 5 eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for Jan Mayen volcanic island in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve in the characterization and modelling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano’s Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous Probability Density Function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data are considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km-resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can represent an aid to civil protection, decision makers and, moreover, aviation stakeholders in assessing and preventing the potential impact from a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen.
    Description: In press
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    FALL3D-8.0: a computational model for atmospheric transport and deposition of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. Part I: model physics and numerics (2020)
    EGU - Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-10
    Description: This manuscript presents FALL3D-8.0, the last version release of an open-source code with 15+ years of track record and a growing number of users in the vol- canological and atmospheric communities. The code has been redesigned and rewritten from scratch in the framework of the EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE) in order to overcome legacy issues and allow for successive optimisations that are already planned in the preparation of the code towards extreme-scale computing. However, this baseline version already contains substantial improvements in terms of model physics, solving algorithms, and code accuracy and performance. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. The solving strategy has also been changed, replacing the former central-differences scheme for a high-resolution central-upwind scheme derived from finite volumes, which minimises numerical diffusion even in presence of sharp concentration gradients and discontinuities. The parallelisation strategy, Input/Output (I/O), model pre-process workflows and memory management have also been reconsidered, leading to substantial improvements on code scalability, efficiency, and overall capability to han- dle much larger problems. This paper details the FALL3D-8.0 model physics and the numerical implementation of the code.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1431–1458
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Atmospheric transport ; Radionuclides ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Enabling dynamic and intelligent workflows for HPC, data analytics, and AI convergence (2022)
    In:  EPIC3Future Generation Computer Systems, 134, pp. 414-429, ISSN: 0167739X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-25
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
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    VIGIL: A Python tool for automatized probabilistic VolcanIc Gas dIspersion modeLling (2022)
    INGV
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-19
    Description: Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment is a standard methodology based on running a deterministic hazard quantification tool multiple times to explore the full range of uncertainty in the input parameters and boundary conditions, in order to probabilistically quantify the variability of outputs accounting for such uncertainties. Nowadays, different volcanic hazards are quantified by means of this approach. Among these, volcanic gas emission is particularly relevant given the threat posed to human health if concentrations and exposure times exceed certain thresholds. There are different types of gas emissions but two main scenarios can be recognized: hot buoyant gas emissions from fumaroles and the ground and dense gas emissions feeding density currents that can occur, e.g., in limnic eruptions. Simulation tools are available to model the evolution of critical gas concentrations over an area of interest. Moreover, in order to perform probabilistic hazard assessments of volcanic gases, simulations should account for the natural variability associated to aspects such as seasonal and daily wind conditions, localized or diffuse source locations, and gas fluxes. Here we present VIGIL (automatized probabilistic VolcanIc Gas dIspersion modeLling), a new Python tool designed for managing the entire simulation workflow involved in single and probabilistic applications of gas dispersion modelling. VIGIL is able to manage the whole process from meteorological data processing, needed to run gas dispersion in both the dilute and dense gas flow scenarios, to the post processing of models’ outputs. Two application examples are presented to show some of the modelling capabilities offered by VIGIL.
    Description: Published
    Description: DM107
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    On the feasibility and usefulness of high-performance computing in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: An application to tephra hazard from Campi Flegrei (2022)
    Frontiers Media S.A.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-23
    Description: For active volcanoes, knowledge about probabilities of eruption and impacted areas becomes valuable information for decision-makers to develop short- and long-term emergency plans, for which probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) is needed. High-resolution or spatially extended PVHA requires extreme-scale high-performance computing systems. Within the framework of ChEESE (Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth; www.cheese-coe.eu), an effort was made to generate exascale-suitable codes and workflows to collect and process in some hours the large amount of data that a quality PVHA requires. To this end, we created an optimized HPC-based workflow coined PVHA_HPC-WF to develop PVHA for a volcano. This tool uses the Bayesian event tree methodology to calculate eruption probabilities, vent-opening location(s), and eruptive source parameters (ESPs) based on volcano history, monitoring system data, and meteorological conditions. Then, the tool interacts with the chosen hazard model, performing a simulation for each ESP set or volcanic scenario (VS). Finally, the resulting information is processed by proof-of-concept-subjected high-performance data analytics (HPDA) scripts, producing the hazard maps which describe the probability over time of exceeding critical thresholds at each location in the investigated geographical domain. Although PVHA_HPC-WF can be adapted to other hazards, we focus here on tephra (i.e., lapilli and ash) transport and deposition. As an application, we performed PVHA for Campi Flegrei (CF), Italy, an active volcano located in one of the most densely inhabited areas in Europe and under busy air traffic routes. CF is currently in unrest, classified as being in an attention level by the Italian Civil Protection. We consider an approximate 2,000 × 2,000 × 40 km computational domain with 2 km grid resolution in the horizontal and 40 vertical levels, centered in CF. To explore the natural variability and uncertainty of the eruptive conditions, we consider a large number of VSs allowing us to include those of low probability but high impact, and simulations of tephra dispersal are performed for each of them using the FALL3D model. Results show the potential of HPC to timely execute a vast range of simulations of complex numerical models in large high-resolution computational domains and analyze great volumes of data to obtain quality hazard maps.
    Description: Published
    Description: 941789
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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