ALBERT

Description: South-Eastern Brazil experienced a devastating drought associated with significant agricultural losses in austral summer 2014. The drought was linked to the development of a quasi-stationary anticyclone in the South Atlantic in early 2014 that affected local precipitation patterns over South-East Brazil. Previous studies have suggested that the unusual blocking was triggered by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and, more recently, by convection over the Indian Ocean related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Further investigation of the proposed teleconnections appears crucial for anticipating future economic impacts. In this study, we use numerical experiments with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model forced with the observed 2013/2014 SST anomalies in different ocean basins to understand the dominant mechanism that initiated the 2014 South Atlantic anticyclonic anomaly. We show that a forcing with global 2013/2014 SST anomalies enhances the chance for the occurrence of positive geopotential height anomalies in the South Atlantic. However, further sensitivity experiments with SST forcings in separate ocean basins suggest that neither the Indian Ocean nor tropical Pacific SST anomalies alone have contributed significantly to the anomalous atmospheric circulation that led to the 2014 South-East Brazil drought. The model study rather points to an important role of remote forcing from the South Pacific, local South Atlantic SSTs, and internal atmospheric variability in driving the persistent blocking over the South Atlantic.

Description: The present study describes Rossby wave packet (RWP) properties in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) with the use of Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (GNSS-RO) measurements. This global study covering both hemispheres' extratropics is the first to tackle medium- and synoptic-scale waves with GNSS-RO. We use 1 decade of GNSS-RO temperature and pressure data from the CHAMP, COSMIC, GRACE, Metop-A, Metop-B, SAC-C and TerraSAR-X missions, combining them into one gridded dataset for the years 2007–2016. Our approach to extract RWP anomalies and their envelope uses Fourier and Hilbert transforms over longitude without pre- or post-processing the data. Our study is purely based on observations, only using ERA-Interim winds to provide information about the background wind regimes. The RWP structures that we obtain in the UTLS agree well with theory and earlier studies, in terms of coherent phase or group propagation, zonal scale and distribution over latitudes. Furthermore, we show that RWP pressure anomalies maximize around the tropopause, while RWP temperature anomalies maximize right above the tropopause height with a contrasting minimum right below. RWP activity follows the zonal-mean tropopause during all seasons. RWP anomalies in the lower stratosphere are dynamically coupled to the upper troposphere. They are part of the same system with a quasi-barotropic structure across the UTLS. RWP activity often reaches up to 20 km height and occasionally higher, defying the Charney–Drazin criterion. We note enhanced amplitude and upward propagation of RWP activity during sudden stratospheric warmings. We provide observational support for improvements in RWP diagnostics and wave trend analysis in models and reanalyses. Wave quantities follow the tropopause, and diagnosing them on fixed pressure levels (which the tropopause does not follow) can lead to aliasing. Our novel approach analyzing GNSS-RO pressure anomalies provides wave signals with better continuity and coherence across the UTLS and the stratosphere, compared to temperature anomalies. Thus, RWP vertical propagation is much easier to analyze with pressure data.

Description: European heat waves have increased during the two recent decades. Particularly 2015 and 2018 were characterized by a widespread area of cold North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in early summer as well as positive surface temperature anomalies across large parts of the European continent during later summer. The European heat wave of 2018 is further suggested to be induced by a quasi-stationary and high-amplified Rossby wave pattern associated with the so-called quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) mechanism. In this study, we evaluate the North Atlantic SST anomalies and the QRA theory as potential drivers for European heat waves for the first time in combination by using the ERA-5 reanalysis product. A composite and correlation study reveals that cold North Atlantic SST anomalies in early summer favour a more undulating jet stream and a preferred trough-ridge pattern in the North Atlantic–European sector. Further we found that cold North Atlantic SSTs promote a stronger double jet occurrence in this sector. Thus, favorite conditions for a QRA signature are evident together with a necessary preconditioning of a double jet. However, our wave analysis covering two-dimensional probability density distributions of phase speed and amplitude does not confirm a relationship between cold North Atlantic SSTs and the QRA theory, compositing cold SSTs, high double jet indices (DJIs) or both together. Instead, we can show that cold North Atlantic SST events enhance the dominance of transient waves. In the presence of a trough during cold North Atlantic events, we obtain a slow-down of the transient waves, but not necessarily an amplification or stationarity. The deceleration of the transient waves result in a longer duration of a trough over the North Atlantic accompanied by a ridge downstream over Europe, triggering European heat episodes. Although a given DJI preconditioning may also be subject to the onset of certain QRA events, our study found no general relation between cold North Atlantic SST events and the QRA diagnostics. Our study highlights the relevance of cold North Atlantic SSTs for the onset of high European temperatures by affecting travelling jet stream undulations (but without involving QRA in general). Further attention should be drawn not only to the influence of North Atlantic SST year-to-year variability, but also to the effect of the North Atlantic warming hole as a negative SST anomaly in the long term, which is projected to evolve through climate change.

Description: This study highlights the relevance of North Atlantic SSTs and certain jet stream properties for the onset of high European temperatures by using the ERA-5/ERA20c reanalysis product and a targeted experiment with the OpenIFS model. We found that certain European heat wave events could be related to the simultaneous appearance of cold North Atlantic SST events, specific jet stream wave numbers and further to transient and recurrent Rossby wave activity. The coexistence of cold North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and positive European surface temperature anomalies during several summer seasons, like in 1994, 2015 and 2018 motivated us to evaluate whether and how widespread and significant North Atlantic SST anomalies could be associated with European heat waves.Therefore we investigated the role of the jet stream in serving as a medium for a downstream signal propagation. A composite study reveals that cold North Atlantic SST anomalies in summer are accompanied by a more undulating jet stream and a preferred trough-ridge pattern in the North Atlantic-European sector. A wave analysis covering two-dimensional probability density functions of phase speed and amplitude after compositing cold SSTs show that cold North Atlantic SST events reveal a preference for a dominance of transient waves. In the presence of a trough during cold North Atlantic events, we obtain a slow-down of the transient waves, but not necessarily an amplification or stationarity. The deceleration of the transient waves result in a longer duration of a trough over the North Atlantic accompanied by a ridge downstream over Europe, favouring the conditions for the onset of European heat episodes. A study of the jet stream energetics via a kinetic energy power spectrum of meridional wind anomalies reveals that generally a trend shows up towards wave numbers 4 to 6. This is supported by an enhanced activity of specific wave numbers within this increased range during summer seasons of European heat wave events happening in the last two decades. An arising question poses whether the increased energy for a certain wave number originates from an SST forcing or different drivers. We investigate this by performing targeted OpenIFS model runs forced by different SST conditions.