ALBERT

Description: There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea ice has already passed a "tipping point", or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation, because it is highly reversible in models. However, a broader definition of a "tipping point" also includes other abrupt, non-linear changes that are neither bifurcations nor necessarily irreversible. Examination of satellite data for Arctic sea-ice area reveals an abrupt increase in the amplitude of seasonal variability in 2007 that has persisted since then. We identified this abrupt transition using recently developed methods that can detect multi-modality in time-series data and sometimes forewarn of bifurcations. When removing the mean seasonal cycle (up to 2008) from the satellite data, the residual sea-ice fluctuations switch from uni-modal to multi-modal behaviour around 2007. We originally interpreted this as a bifurcation in which a new lower ice cover attractor appears in deseasonalised fluctuations and is sampled in every summer–autumn from 2007 onwards. However, this interpretation is clearly sensitive to how the seasonal cycle is removed from the raw data, and to the presence of continental land masses restricting winter–spring ice fluctuations. Furthermore, there was no robust early warning signal of critical slowing down prior to the hypothesized bifurcation. Early warning indicators do however show destabilization of the summer–autumn sea-ice cover since 2007. Thus, the bifurcation hypothesis lacks consistent support, but there was an abrupt and persistent increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea-ice cover in 2007, which we describe as a (non-bifurcation) "tipping point". Our statistical methods detect this "tipping point" and its time of onset. We discuss potential geophysical mechanisms behind it, which should be the subject of further work with process-based models.

Description: A new model of terrestrial rock weathering – the Rock Geochemical Model (RokGeM) – was developed for incorporation into the GENIE Earth System modelling framework. In this paper we describe the model. We consider a range of previously devised parameterizations, ranging from simple dependencies on global mean temperature following Berner et al. (1983), to spatially explicit dependencies on run-off and temperature (GKWM, Bluth and Kump, 1994; GEM-CO2, Amiotte-Suchet et al., 2003) – fields provided by the energy-moisture balance atmosphere model component in GENIE. Using long-term carbon cycle perturbation experiments, we test the effects of a wide range of model parameters, including whether or not the atmosphere was "short-circuited" in the carbon cycle; the sensitivity and feedback strength of temperature and run-off on carbonate and silicate weathering; different river-routing schemes; 0-D (global average) vs. 2-D (spatially explicit) weathering schemes; and the lithology dependence of weathering. Included are details of how to run the model and visualize the results.

Description: Microbial activity is a fundamental component of oceanic nutrient cycles. Photosynthetic microbes, collectively termed phytoplankton, are responsible for the vast majority of primary production in marine waters. The availability of nutrients in the upper ocean frequently limits the activity and abundance of these organisms. Experimental data have revealed two broad regimes of phytoplankton nutrient limitation in the modern upper ocean. Nitrogen availability tends to limit productivity throughout much of the surface low-latitude ocean, where the supply of nutrients from the subsurface is relatively slow. In contrast, iron often limits productivity where subsurface nutrient supply is enhanced, including within the main oceanic upwelling regions of the Southern Ocean and the eastern equatorial Pacific. Phosphorus, vitamins and micronutrients other than iron may also (co-)limit marine phytoplankton. The spatial patterns and importance of co-limitation, however, remain unclear. Variability in the stoichiometries of nutrient supply and biological demand are key determinants of oceanic nutrient limitation. Deciphering the mechanisms that underpin this variability, and the consequences for marine microbes, will be a challenge. But such knowledge will be crucial for accurately predicting the consequences of ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to oceanic nutrient biogeochemistry. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Description: Microbial activity is a fundamental component of oceanic nutrient cycles. Photosynthetic microbes, collectively termed phytoplankton, are responsible for the vast majority of primary production in marine waters. The availability of nutrients in the upper ocean frequently limits the activity and abundance of these organisms. Experimental data have revealed two broad regimes of phytoplankton nutrient limitation in the modern upper ocean. Nitrogen availability tends to limit productivity throughout much of the surface low-latitude ocean, where the supply of nutrients from the subsurface is relatively slow. In contrast, iron often limits productivity where subsurface nutrient supply is enhanced, including within the main oceanic upwelling regions of the Southern Ocean and the eastern equatorial Pacific. Phosphorus, vitamins and micronutrients other than iron may also (co-)limit marine phytoplankton. The spatial patterns and importance of co-limitation, however, remain unclear. Variability in the stoichiometries of nutrient supply and biological demand are key determinants of oceanic nutrient limitation. Deciphering the mechanisms that underpin this variability, and the consequences for marine microbes, will be a challenge. But such knowledge will be crucial for accurately predicting the consequences of ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to oceanic nutrient biogeochemistry.

Description: Marine phytoplankton are responsible for ∼50% of the CO2 that is fixed annually worldwide, and contribute massively to other biogeochemical cycles in the oceans1. Their contribution depends significantly on the interplay between dynamic environmental conditions and the metabolic responses that underpin resource allocation and hence biogeochemical cycling in the oceans. However, these complex environment–biome interactions have not been studied on a larger scale. Here we use a set of integrative approaches that combine metatranscriptomes, biochemical data, cellular physiology and emergent phytoplankton growth strategies in a global ecosystems model, to show that temperature significantly affects eukaryotic phytoplankton metabolism with consequences for biogeochemical cycling under global warming. In particular, the rate of protein synthesis strongly increases under high temperatures even though the numbers of ribosomes and their associated rRNAs decreases. Thus, at higher temperatures, eukaryotic phytoplankton seem to require a lower density of ribosomes to produce the required amounts of cellular protein. The reduction of phosphate-rich ribosomes2 in warmer oceans will tend to produce higher organismal nitrogen (N) to phosphate (P) ratios, in turn increasing demand for N with consequences for the marine carbon cycle due to shifts towards N-limitation. Our integrative approach suggests that temperature plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in resource allocation and marine phytoplankton stoichiometry, with implications for the biogeochemical cycles that they drive.

Description: We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for ‘potential analysis’ of tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting nonlinear changes including bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis. Although being applied to climatological series in the present paper, the method is very general and can be used to forecast dynamics in time series of any origin.

Description: Salinity increase in the subtropical gyre system may have pre-conditioned the North Atlantic Ocean for a rapid return to stronger overturning circulation and high-latitude warming following meltwater events during the Last Glacial period. Here we investigate the Gulf Stream – subtropical gyre system properties over Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) cycles 14 to 12, including Heinrich ice-rafting event 5. During the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum a positive gradient in surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera δ18O (Globigerinoides ruber) can be observed between the Gulf Stream and subtropical gyre, due to decreasing temperature, increasing salinity, and a change from summer to year-round occurrence of G. ruber. We assess whether this gradient was a common feature during stadial-interstadial climate oscillations of Marine Isotope Stage 3, by comparing existing G. ruber δ18O from ODP Site 1060 (subtropical gyre location) and new data from ODP Site 1056 (Gulf Stream location) between 54 and 46 ka. Our results suggest that this gradient was largely absent during the period studied. During the major warm DO interstadials 14 and 12 we infer a more zonal and wider Gulf Stream, influencing both ODP Sites 1056 and 1060. A Gulf Stream presence during these major interstadials is also suggested by the large vertical δ18O gradient between shallow dwelling planktonic foraminifera species, especially G. ruber, and the deep dwelling species Globorotalia inflata at site 1056, which we associate with strong summer stratification and Gulf Stream presence. A major reduction in this vertical δ18O gradient from 51 ka until the end of Heinrich event 5 at 48.5 ka suggests site 1056 was situated within the subtropical gyre in this mainly cold period, from which we infer a migration of the Gulf Stream to a position nearer to the continental shelf, indicative of a narrower Gulf Stream with possibly reduced transport.