ALBERT

Description: Laboratory models are realized to investigate the role of interface roughness, driving rate, and pressure on friction dynamics. The setup consists of a gelatin block driven at constant velocity over sand paper. The interface roughness is quantified in terms of amplitude and wavelength of protrusions, jointly expressed by a reference roughness parameter obtained by their product. Frictional behavior shows a systematic dependence on system parameters. Both stick slip and stable sliding occur, depending on driving rate and interface roughness. Stress drop and frequency of slip episodes vary directly and inversely, respectively, with the reference roughness parameter, reflecting the fundamental role for the amplitude of protrusions. An increase in pressure tends to favor stick slip. Static friction is a steeply decreasing function of the reference roughness parameter. The velocity strengthening/weakening parameter in the state- and rate-dependent dynamic friction law becomes negative for specific values of the reference roughness parameter which are intermediate with respect to the explored range. Despite the simplifications of the adopted setup, which does not address the problem of off-fault fracturing, a comparison of the experimental results with the depth distribution of seismic energy release along subduction thrust faults leads to the hypothesis that their behavior is primarily controlled by the depth- and time-dependent distribution of protrusions. A rough subduction fault at shallow depths, unable to produce significant seismicity because of low lithostatic pressure, evolves into a moderately rough, velocity-weakening fault at intermediate depths. The magnitude of events in this range is calibrated by the interplay between surface roughness and subduction rate. At larger depths, the roughness further decreases and stable sliding becomes gradually more predominant. Thus, although interplate seismicity is ultimately controlled by tectonic parameters (velocity of the plates/trench and the thermal regime), the direct control is exercised by the resulting frictional properties of the plate interface.

Description: Volcanoes are often associated with vertical collapse, due to deeper magma withdrawal. Calderas are the most notable type of vertical collapse, on the summit of volcanoes. Caldera collapse has been observed and monitored only at Miyakejima (Japan; 2000), Dolomieu (Reunion; 2007) and Fernandina (Galapagos; 1968), highlighting our limited knowledge on its kinematic behavior. Here we use experimental models to investigate the kinematic evolution of calderas and vertical collapses in general. We extract velocity and strain fields using the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique, generating time series. Experimental vertical collapses undergoing constant subsidence velocity show three main kinematic behaviors: (1) continuous collapse, whose velocity is similar to the source subsidence velocity; (2) incremental collapse, with episodic (stepwise) accelerations along pre-existing ring structures; (3) sudden collapse, resulting from the upward migration of a cavity, only for T/D 〉 2 (T and D are the depth and width of the magma chamber, respectively) and without ring structures. The velocity in the collapsing column may increase up to four orders of magnitude with regard to the constant subsidence velocity of the source. Comparison to nature suggests that: (1) there are close kinematic similarities with monitored collapse calderas, explaining their incremental subsidence after the development of ring structures; (2) sudden pit crater formation is induced by the upward propagation of cavities, due to magma removal at depth and in absence of ring structures; (3) all these types of vertical collapses have a consistent mechanism of formation and kinematic behavior, function of T/D and the presence/absence of ring structures.

Description: Abstract The roughness of the subduction interface is thought to influence seismogenic behavior in subduction zones, but a detailed understanding of how such roughness affects the state of stress along the subduction megathrust is still debated. Here, we use seismotectonic analogue models to investigate the effect of subduction interface roughness on seismicity in subduction zones. We compared analogue earthquake source parameters and slip distributions for two roughness endmembers. Models characterized by a very rough interface have lower integrated fault strength and lower interseismic coupling than models with a smooth interface. Overall, ruptures in the rough models have smaller rupture area, duration and mean displacement. Individual slip distributions indicate a segmentation of the subduction interface by the rough geometry. We propose that flexure of the overriding plate is one of the mechanisms that contribute to a heterogeneous stress distribution, responsible for the observed seismic behavior.

Description: Abstract Despite the growing spatiotemporal density of geophysical observations at subduction zones, predicting the timing and size of future earthquakes remains a challenge. Here we simulate multiple seismic cycles in a laboratory‐scale subduction zone. The model creates both partial and full margin ruptures, simulating magnitude Mw 6.2–8.3 earthquakes with a coefficient of variation in recurrence intervals of 0.5, similar to real subduction zones. We show that the common procedure of estimating the next earthquake size from slip‐deficit is unreliable. On the contrary, machine learning predicts well the timing and size of laboratory earthquakes by reconstructing and properly interpreting the spatiotemporally complex loading history of the system. These results promise substantial progress in real earthquake forecasting, as they suggest that the complex motion recorded by geodesists at subduction zones might be diagnostic of earthquake imminence.

Description: [1]  The physics governing the seismic cycle at seismically active subduction zones remains poorly understood due to restricted direct observations in time and space. To investigate subduction zone dynamics and associated interplate seismicity, we validate a continuum, visco-elasto-plastic numerical model with a new laboratory approach (Paper 1). The analogous laboratory setup includes a visco-elastic gelatin wedge underthrusted by a rigid plate with defined velocity-weakening and -strengthening regions. Our geodynamic simulation approach includes velocity-weakening friction to spontaneously generate a series of fast frictional instabilities that correspond to analog earthquakes. A match between numerical and laboratory source parameters is obtained when velocity-strengthening is applied in the aseismic regions to stabilize the rupture. Spontaneous evolution of absolute stresses leads to nucleation by coalescence of neighboring patches, mainly occurring at evolving asperities near the seismogenic zone limits. Consequently, a crack-, or occasionally even pulse-like, rupture propagates toward the opposite side of the seismogenic zone by increasing stresses ahead of its rupture front, until it arrests on a barrier. The resulting surface displacements qualitatively agree with geodetic observations and show landward and, from near the downdip limit, upward interseismic motions. These are rebound and reversed coseismically. This slip increases adjacent stresses, which are relaxed postseismically by afterslip and thereby produce persistent seaward motions. The wide range of observed physical phenomena, including back-propagation and repeated slip, and the agreement with laboratory results demonstrate that visco-elasto-plastic geodynamic models with rate-dependent friction form a new tool that can greatly contribute to our understanding of the seismic cycle at subduction zones.

Description: We developed an hybrid numerical model of dike propagation in two dimensions solving both for the magma trajectory and velocity as a function of the source overpressure, the magma physical properties (density and viscosity) as well as the crustal density and stress field. This model is used to characterize the influence of surface load changes on magma migration towards the surface. We confirm that surface loading induced by volcanic edifice construction, tends both to attract the magma and to reduce its velocity. In contrast, surface unloading, for instance due to caldera formation, tends to divert the magma to the periphery retarding eruption. In both cases the deflected magma may remain trapped at depth. Amplitudes of dike deflection and magma velocity variation depend on the ratio between the magma driving pressure (source overpressure as well as buoyancy) and the stress field perturbation. Our model is then applied to the July 2001 eruption of Etna, where the final dike deflection had been previously interpreted as due to the topographic load. We show that the velocity decrease observed during the last stage of the propagation can also be attributed to the local stress field. We use the dike propagation duration to estimate the magma overpressure at the dike bottom to be less than 4 MPa. This approach can be potentially used to forecast if, where and when propagating magma might reach the surface when having knowledge on the local stress field, magma physical properties and reservoir overpressure.

Description: [1]  Subduction megathrust earthquakes occur at the interface between the subducting and overriding plates. These hazardous phenomena are only partially understood because of the absence of direct observations, the restriction of the instrumental seismic record to the past century, and the limited resolution/completeness of historical to geological archives. To overcome these restrictions, modeling has become a key-tool to study megathrust earthquakes. We present a novel model to investigate the seismic cycle at subduction thrusts using complementary analog (paper 1) and numerical (paper 2) approaches. Here we introduce a simple scaled gelatin-on-sandpaper setup including realistic tectonic loading, spontaneous rupture nucleation, and viscoelastic response of the lithosphere. Particle image velocimetry allows to derive model deformation and earthquake source parameters. Analog earthquakes are characterized by “quasi-periodic” recurrence. Consistent with elastic theory, the interseismic stage shows rearward motion, subsidence in the outer wedge and uplift of the “coastal area” as a response of locked plate interface at shallow depth. The coseismic stage exhibits order of magnitude higher velocities and reversal of the interseismic deformation pattern in the seaward direction, subsidence of the coastal area, and uplift in the outer wedge. Like natural earthquakes, analog earthquakes generally nucleate in the deeper portion of the rupture area and preferentially propagate upward in a crack-like fashion. Scaled rupture width-slip proportionality and seismic moment-duration scaling verifies dynamic similarities with earthquakes. Experimental repeatability is statistically verified. Comparing analog results with natural observations, we conclude that this technique is suitable for investigating the parameter space influencing the subduction interplate seismic cycle.

Description: Dikes along rift zones propagate laterally downslope for tens of kilometers, often becoming arrested before topographic reliefs. We use analogue and numerical models to test the conditions controlling the lateral propagation and arrest of dikes, exploring the presence of a slope in connection with buoyancy and rigidity layering. A gentle downslope assists lateral propagation when combined with an effective barrier to magma ascent, e.g. gelatin stiffness contrasts, while anti-buoyancy alone may be insufficient to prevent upward propagation. We also observe experimental dikes become arrested when reaching a plain before opposite reliefs. Our numerical models show that below the plain the stress field induced by topography hinders further dike propagation. We suggest that lateral dike propagation requires an efficient barrier (rigidity) to upward propagation, assisting anti-buoyancy, and a lateral pressure gradient perpendicular to the least compressive stress axis, while dike arrest may be induced by external reliefs.