ALBERT

Description: Since 1961, almost 160 satellite break-ups have occurred on-orbit, and have been the major contributor to the growth of the orbital debris population. When a satellite breaks up, the debris exists in a relatively concentrated form, orbiting in a loose cloud with the parent body until orbital perturbations disperse the cloud into the average background. Manned space activities, which usually take place in low Earth orbit at altitudes less than 500 km, have been continuous for the past I I years while Mir was inhabited and promise to be again continuous when the International Space Station becomes permanently manned. This paper surveys historical breakups over the last I I years to determine the number that affect altitudes lower than 500 km. Selected breakup are analyzed using NASA's Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM) to determine the specific short term risk from those breakups to manned missions.

Description: No abstract available

Description: On 6 August, 2012, Russia launched two commercial satellites aboard a Proton rocket, and attempted to place them in geosynchronous orbit using a Briz-M upper stage (2012-044C, SSN 38746). Unfortunately, the upper stage failed early in its burn and was left stranded in an elliptical orbit with a perigee in low Earth orbit (LEO). Because the stage failed with much of its fuel on board, it was deemed a significant breakup risk. These fears were confirmed when it broke up 16 October, creating a large cloud of debris with perigees below that of the International Space Station. The debris cloud was tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN), which can reliably detect and track objects down to about 10 cm in size. Because of the unusual geometry of the breakup, there was an opportunity for NASA Orbital Debris Program Office to use specialized radar assets to characterize the extent of the debris cloud in sizes smaller than the standard debris tracked by the SSN. This paper will describe the observation campaign to measure the small particle distributions of this cloud, and presents the results of the analysis of the data. We shall compare the data to the modelled size distribution, number, and shape of the cloud, and what implications this may have for future breakup debris models. We shall conclude the paper with a discussion how this measurement process can be improved for future breakups.

Description: Long-term models, such as NASA's LEGEND (LEO (Low-Earth Orbit)-to-GEO (Geosynchrous Earth Orbit) Environment Debris) model, are used to make predictions about how space activities will affect the long-term evolution of the debris environment. Part of this process is to predict how spacecraft and rocket bodies will be launched and left in the environment in the future. This has usually been accomplished by repeating past launch history to simulate future launches. It was partially upon the basis of the results of such models that both national and international orbital debris mitigation guidelines - especially the "25-year rule" for post-mission disposal - were determined. The proliferation of Cubesat launches in recent years, however, has raised concerns that we are seeing a fundamental shift in how humans launch satellites into space that may alter the assumptions upon which our current mitigation guidelines are based. The large number of Cubesats, and their short lifetime and general inability to perform collision avoidance, potentially makes them an important new source of debris. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has conducted a series of LEGEND computations to investigate the long-term effects of adding Cubesats to the environment. Several possible future scenarios were simulated to investigate the effects of the size of future Cubesat launches and the efficiency of post-mission disposal on the proliferation of catastrophic collisions over the next 200 years. These results are compared to a baseline "business-as-usual" scenario where launches are assumed to continue as in the past without major Cubesat deployments. Using these results, we make observations about the continued use of the 25-year rule and the importance of the universal application of post-mission disposal. We also discuss how the proliferation of Cubesats may affect satellite traffic at lower altitudes.

Description: The Low Earth Orbit (LEO, between 200 and 2000 km altitudes) debris environment has been constantly measured by NASA Johnson Space Center's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) since 1996 (Africano et al. 1999, NASA JSC-28826) and by Haystack and Haystack Auxiliary radars at MIT Lincoln Laboratory since 1990 (Settecerri et al. 1999, NASA JSC-28744). Debris particles as small as 3 mm can be detected by the radars and as small as 3 cm can be measured by LMT. Objects about 10 cm in diameter and greater are tracked and catalogued by the US Space Surveillance Network. Much smaller (down to several micrometers) natural and debris particle populations can be estimated based on in situ measurements, such as Long Duration Exposure Facility, and based on analyses of returned surfaces, such as Hubble Space Telescope solar arrays, European Retrievable Carrier, and Space Shuttles. To increase our understanding of the current LEO debris environment, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA JSC has initiated an effort to improve and update the ORDEM96 model (Kessler et al. 1996, NASA TM-104825) utilizing the recently available data. This paper gives an overview of the new NASA orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM2000.

Description: On 6 August, 2012, Russia launched two commercial satellites aboard a Proton rocket, and attempted to place them in geosynchronous orbit using a Briz-M upper stage (2012-044C, SSN 38746). Unfortunately, the upper stage failed early in its burn and was left stranded in an elliptical orbit with a perigee in low Earth orbit (LEO). Because the stage failed with much of its fuel on board, it was deemed a significant breakup risk. These fears were confirmed when it broke up 16 October, creating a large cloud of debris with perigees below that of the International Space Station. The debris cloud was tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN), which can reliably detect and track objects down to about 10 cm in size. Because of the unusual geometry of the breakup, there was an opportunity for NASA Orbital Debris Program Office to request radar assets to characterize the extent of the debris cloud in sizes smaller than the standard debris tracked by the SSN. This paper will describe the observation campaign to measure the small particle distributions of this cloud, and presents the results of the analysis of the data. We shall compare the data to the modelled size distribution, number, and shape of the cloud, and what implications this may have for future breakup debris models. We shall conclude the paper with a discussion how this measurement process can be improved for future breakups.

Description: Over 200 spacecraft and rocket body breakups in Earth orbit have populated that regime with debris fragments in the sub-micron through meter size range. Though the largest debris fragments can cause significant collisional damage to active (operational) spacecraft, these are few and trackable by radar. Fragments on the order of a millimeter to a centimeter in size are as yet untrackable. But this smaller debris can result in damage to critical spacecraft systems and, under the worst conditions, fragmenting collision events. Ongoing research at the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office on the sources of these small fragments has focused on the material components of spacecraft and rocket bodies and on breakup event morphology. This has led to fragment material density estimates, and also the beginnings of shape categorizations. To date the NASA Standard Breakup Model has not considered specific material density distinctions of small debris. The basis of small debris in that model is the fourth hypervelocity impact event of the Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT) series. This test targeted a flight-ready, U.S. Transit navigation satellite with a solid aluminum sphere impactor. Results in this event yield characteristic length (size) and area-to-mass distributions of fragments smaller than 10 cm in the NASA model. Recent re-analysis of the SOCIT4 small fragment dataset highlighted the material-specific characteristics of metals and non-metals. Concurrent analysis of Space Shuttle in-situ impact data showed a high percentage of aluminum debris in shuttle orbit regions. Both analyses led to the definition of three main on-orbit debris material density categories -low density (〈 2 g/cc), medium density (2 to 6 g/cc), and high density (〉 6 g/cc). This report considers the above studies in an explicit extension of the NASA Standard Breakup Model where separate material densities for debris are generated and these debris fragments are propagated in Earth orbit. The near Earth environment is thus parameterized by debris density percentages within subsections of that environment. This model version is used in the upgraded NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM).

Description: NASA uses the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST), the University of Michigan's 0.61-m aperture Curtis-Schmidt telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile, to help characterize the debris environment in geosynchronous orbit; this began in February 2001 and continues to the present day. Detected objects that are found to be on the U.S. Space Surveillance Network cataloged objects list are termed correlated targets (CTs), while those not found on the list are called uncorrelated targets (UCTs). This Johnson Space Center report provides details of observational and data-reduction processes for the entire MODEST dataset acquired in calendar years (CYs) 2007, 2008, and 2009. Specifically, this report describes the collection and analysis of 36 nights of data collected in CY 2007, 43 nights of data collected in CY 2008, and 43 nights of data collected in CY 2009. MODEST is equipped with a 2048 x 2048-pixel charged coupled device camera with a 1.3 by 1.3 deg field of view. This system is capable of detecting objects fainter than 18th magnitude (R filter) using a 5-s integration. This corresponds to a 20-cm diameter, 0.175-albedo object at 36,000 km altitude assuming a diffuse Lambertian phase function. The average number of detections each night over all 3 years was 26. The percentage of this number that represented the UCT population ranged from 34% to 18%, depending on the observing strategy and the field center location. Due to the short orbital arc over which observations are made, the eccentricity of the object s orbit is extremely difficult to measure accurately. Therefore, a circular orbit was assumed when calculating the orbital elements. A comparison of the measured inclination (INC), right ascension of ascending node (RAAN), and mean motion to the quantities for CTs from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network shows acceptable errors. This analysis lends credibility to the determination of the UCT orbital distributions. Figure 1 shows the size distribution of 3,143 objects detected in the data processed for CYs 2007, 2008, and 2009. The actual peak of the absolute magnitude distribution for the functional correlated targets is 10th magnitude, whereas the peak was 11th magnitude in 2002 2003 and 10th magnitude for 2004-2006. An absolute magnitude of 10.5 corresponds to objects with average diameters of 6.3 m, assuming an albedo of 0.175 and a diffuse Lambertian phase function. This result generally agrees with the known sizes of intact satellites. The absolute magnitude distribution for the UCTs is broad, but starts to roll off near 25 cm diameter or 17.5 magnitude. This roll off in the distribution reflects the detection capability of MODEST, not the true nature of the population. The true population is believed to continue at the same slope through fainter magnitudes based on comparisons with the LEO break-up law.

Description: Since 2002 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has carried out an optical survey of the debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile. The survey coverage has been similar for 4 of the 5 years allowing us to follow the orbital evolution of Correlated Targets (CTs), both controlled and un-controlled objects, and Un-Correlated Targets (UCTs). Under gravitational perturbations the distributions of uncontrolled objects, both CTs and UCTs, in GEO orbits will evolve in predictable patterns, particularly evident in the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) distributions. There are several clusters (others have used a "cloud" nomenclature) in observed distributions that show evolution from year to year in their inclination and ascending node elements. However, when MODEST is in survey mode (field-of-view approx.1.3deg) it provides only short 5-8 minute orbital arcs which can only be fit under the assumption of a circular orbit approximation (ACO) to determine the orbital parameters. These ACO elements are useful only in a statistical sense as dedicated observing runs would be required to obtain sufficient orbital coverage to determine a set of accurate orbital elements and then to follow their evolution. Identification of the source(s) for these "clusters of UCTs" would be advantageous to the overall definition of the GEO orbital debris environment. This paper will set out to determine if the ACO elements can be used to in a statistical sense to identify the source of the "clustering of UCTs" roughly centered on an inclination of 12deg and a RAAN of 345deg. The breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage on February 21, 1992 has been modeled using NASA s LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a GEO debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and delta-V distributions). Once fragments are created, they are propagated forward in time with a subroutine GEOPROP. Perturbations included in GEOPROP are those due to solar/lunar gravity, radiation pressure, and major geopotential terms. The question to be addressed: are the UCTs detected by MODEST in this inclination/RAAN region related to the Titan 3C-4 breakup? Discussion will include the observational biases in attempting to detect a specific, uncontrolled target during given observing session. These restrictions include: (1) the length of the observing session which is 8 hours or less at any given date or declination; (2) the assumption of ACO elements for detected object when the breakup model predicts debris with non-zero eccentricities; (3) the size and illumination or brightness of the debris predicted by the model and the telescope/sky limiting magnitude.